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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 375367 times)
Flashheart

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« Reply #6000 on: Friday, October 16, 2020, 12:28:48 »

I give up.

You seem to be deliberately trying to miss my point.
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4D

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« Reply #6001 on: Friday, October 16, 2020, 12:43:55 »

It's hardly like a prison state is it? The only thing that is really different is sticking a mask on in the shops and on public transport. I'd love to get back to going to games and having a few bevvies, but I'd rather help protect the vulnerable and not be selfish about it.
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RobertT

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« Reply #6002 on: Friday, October 16, 2020, 13:21:05 »

The fact that it is a "low mortality" virus is precisely the problem.  If it was like Ebola, more people who contract it would die, but less people would contract it because the symptoms and mortality are so much more severe.

This one is low enough, and with enough asymptomatic spread, that it can be passed on relatively easily in the right conditions.  However, when you get down to the mortality rates for this type of virus, they are still high enough to cause a major problem.  The Flu strains we are left with, which are now endemic, are so low that we carry on as a society with a few precautions in place, plus the symptoms are more severe, so it creates a natural barrier to reinfection.  Even so, it spreads pretty widely and causes thousands of deaths per year still.  If we treated this one like seasonal Flu, given we have no natural immunity to it, haven't been exposed to it, don't have any vaccines available to reduce spread and it has higher asymptomatic spread, then millions would die around the globe, as they did in 1917-1918/9.

Despite protestations that we don't react like this normally, we did many of the current actions in 1918.  People wore masks, schools were shut, as were many hospitality sector businesses.  Social distancing was encouraged, alongside isolation of the sick.  We did all that with far less knowledge on the the flu and how to prevent spread.  It would be criminally negligent to at least not do the same now.

Does it mostly impact those who are sick/old, yes.  BUT, we don't know if we let this run rampant, killing off millions who would be in that group, what it means for a year or two later - do we end-up with a bigger new pool of old and sick people for the next wave to have a bash at?  Want to take that risk?  Because that is what sort of happened in 1917-1919 - the next wave (not what we are seeing now) was the one that killed people, when they'd got tired of battling the first wave.

Even if we assume the mortality rate is <1% (given it's higher than that based on known cases but we can expect many more unknown cases to have occurred), it is still somewhere in the x5 or x10 greater mortality than Flu, with what seems like a greater propensity to spread.  I am pretty sure 70m dying would be a bit of a problem for healthcare facilities the world over.
« Last Edit: Friday, October 16, 2020, 13:24:18 by RobertT » Logged
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« Reply #6003 on: Friday, October 16, 2020, 13:22:17 »

After all that, it doesn't mean you have to use lockdowns, but you do have to have a carefully planned and well executed public healthcare policy.  Not treating it seriously is what gets you into lockdowns.
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horlock07

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« Reply #6004 on: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 08:54:25 »

So Project Moonspaff quietly goes the same way as the Garden Bridge, the Water Cannon and all the other vanity projects that Johnson so loves.

https://goodlawproject.org/news/operation-moonshot-update/
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pauld
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« Reply #6005 on: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 10:42:20 »

Meanwhile Serco are promoting untrained staff to handle contract tracing in what is an already catastrophically ineffective service. In unrelated news, latest figures show Serco Test and Trace have dropped to below 60% in tracing contacts. SAGE says that at least 80% is required for Test and Trace to work. Outside of lockdowns, Test and Trace is our main weapon to get on top of the virus and despite £12bn of public money being pissed away on private contractors it is wholly unfit for purpose.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-untrained-staff-take-on-contact-tracing-jobs-as-test-and-trace-struggles-to-cope-with-rise-in-cases-12110519?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928564/Test_and_Trace_Week20_v2.pdf

« Last Edit: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 10:43:54 by pauld » Logged
Nemo
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« Reply #6006 on: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 11:04:16 »

Sunak is now announcing a much improved (for employees/employers) JSS scheme... a week before it comes into force, and after a lot of businesses have made staffing decisions based on it. My company has literally made redundancies already based on JSS being insufficient, and I'm sure others have too. Better late than never, but this is very, very late.
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RobertT

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« Reply #6007 on: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 12:04:06 »

Was reading about the "success" that New Zealand and Taiwan have had in dealing with the initial wave - interestingly, they were working together to see if they could learn anything from the other (which probably speaks volumes to why they have done so well thus far).  Taiwan enforced mask wearing in January and banned international travel the day that China notified the WHO, they also instigated an immediate Contact Tracing initiative that used a mixture of human and digital methods, similar to how S Korea were able to spin up theirs, which included using Mobile Phone data and credit card transaction tracing (so, if you bought something wih a card, they were able to trace other card purchases from the same location within x minutes of yours and isolate those people, no questions asked),.

New Zealand also identified a case in a Port worker this week, they've already published huge amounts of information about where that person had been and other likely contacts.

Of course, all that is easier when you have hardly any cases - useless when you have thousands a day.

S Korea's total number of tests so far is shocking, in how low it is, because they deployed it quickly and smartly.

None of that means they are immune - they could easily let their guard down still.
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singingiiiffy

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« Reply #6008 on: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 14:31:39 »

we could have 100% track and trace contacts contacted and still wont mean a thing. when you see figures like 11-18% self issolate as a result of a notification
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pauld
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« Reply #6009 on: Thursday, October 22, 2020, 16:46:37 »

we could have 100% track and trace contacts contacted and still wont mean a thing. when you see figures like 11-18% self issolate as a result of a notification
Yes and no. As has been previously noted, asking people to self-isolate when that means forcing them to choose between compliance vs food on the table or eviction or going without essential medicines etc is always going to be less than optimal. However even without a proper support package in place an effective Test and Trace system would at least enable govt and local authorities to tell where outbreaks were occurring, currently we're largely flying blind. But you do have a point that the failure to put in proper support, both financial and practical, for those self-isolating does fundamentally weaken the whole strategy. Participants in both SAGE and Independent SAGE have been pointing that out from the outset, sadly they've been ignored by govt.
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Valid Pint

« Reply #6010 on: Saturday, October 24, 2020, 09:16:03 »

After watching a gig last night I went to my local kebab shop only to find it Fucking shut at 10.30pm. It's usually open until gone 4am.

Another COVID COP OUT!!!
« Last Edit: Saturday, October 24, 2020, 09:18:19 by Valid Pint » Logged
Ardiles

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« Reply #6011 on: Saturday, October 24, 2020, 09:58:35 »

After watching a gig last night I went to my local kebab shop only to find it Fucking shut at 10.30pm. It's usually open until gone 4am.

Another COVID COP OUT!!!

This truly is the end of civilisation as we know it.
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Peter Venkman
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« Reply #6012 on: Saturday, October 24, 2020, 10:03:47 »

1st world problems.
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Well Itís All Inside Your Head
Shift Infinitessimally Your Perception And See
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« Reply #6013 on: Saturday, October 24, 2020, 10:30:49 »

Real world problems for the people who work there and won't for much longer.
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Batch
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« Reply #6014 on: Tuesday, October 27, 2020, 09:17:35 »

this is a bit of a worry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

but I guess even if the vaccine is annual and only reduces the threat to flu like risk that would be brilliant
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