Thetownend.com

It looks like only a matter of time before Coronavirus makes its way to blighty. But its ok, the US have the cure.

"Trump on Tuesday said the US was “very close” to a coronavirus vaccine, which is at least a year away from being available in the best scenario. The White House later said the president was instead speaking about the Ebola vaccine approved two months ago."

Plank.

It's a good job he didn't order the dismantling of the US Federal epidemic management system in 2018 or they might have something to worry about. Although apparently coronavirus is just a Chinese/left-wing/whoever else is the enemy du jour conspiracy to undermine his re-election bid anyway.

Similarly one of the offices in Canary Wharf has closed as one of its staff members who has come back from a country where the virus is prevalent has shown flu symptons. I'd happily work from home for the time being!

The thing is, flu is still a big killer with c500k deaths worldwide per year. And we actually have a vaccine for that yet it still causes havoc. No "self isolating" though, just sneeze/cough over whoever you like cos "it's only flu".

Truth be told, Influenza is more deadly. 2019-nCoV, while yes capable of causing death to those with mostly underlying or pre-existing conditions, the Fatality Rate (FR) is just 8%. We're also still talking very small numbers in epidemic senses. When matched against flu, worldwide cases are in the c3m bracket (an FR of c18%) annually. Even at the current rate 2019-nCoV would be on track for c500k cases and 40k deaths. That figure is unlikely, as cases are showing signs of plateauing and as the Northern Hemisphere pushes towards warmer temperatures, the virus cannot live as long.

I reckon it'll max out at around 250k cases with 10k deaths (FR c4%). WHO reckon the final CFR (Case Fatality Rate) will be less than that at c2%. But who am I to make any such claims?

I still think the media is doing a sterling job of scaremongering though. I've had people say to me they think it will evolve into some indestructible superbug that can't be eradicated (see Influenza), and will slowly wipe out the human species. When giving them comparable data versus Flu, they almost disregard and ignore it. That alone shows you the effect the media can have upon Joe public.

Its almost as if there is something potentially closer to home that the media would rather not talk about!

The mortality rate with influenza is approximately 0.1%. The coronavirus appears to be more than 20 times deadlier.

Did I read somewhere that the Coronavirus  started with Pangolins?

Dunno, but that bloke and his mrs that were on the cruise ship who are on the news everyday are getting right on my tits

Forgive me if I'm wrong but;

c3 million cases
————————— c500,000 deaths

It's also not "the coronavirus". There have been plenty of strains of "coronavirus". Usually H1N1/H1N2 etc is the name associated to the A sub type of Influenza (or Seasonal Flu). This is Covid-19 or 2019-nCoV. I mild strain of Influenza (that they don't have a vaccine for yet).

Back on original point. How do you get to 0.1% for Flu? That'd require 500million cases per year or 1 in 14 for wordwide pop at 7bn. Yet the case figures are 1/100th of this at best, at 5m.

I think you may be looking at US figures only where it falls at c0.1%. The US figures may be a little more unique as people there tend to get a Flu Shot every year, regardless if age or need. Thus their mortality rate is likely to be very low. But I'm talking wordwide figures and as stated that is c17/18%. There is a range between 5% to 20% though.

Edit: The US CDC figures tend to include ALL cases (even the mild ones). Whereas WHO uses medium to severe case data.

You can't compare mortality rates for severe cases of flu with that for all cases of THE coronavirus. The CDC estimates 31 million people caught the flu in the US this season. Obviously there is a danger in extrapolating that over the entire world, but given estimated deaths each year are between 250,000-500,000 it wouldn't be anywhere near that percentage even if all the deaths were in the US(estimates are between 12,000-30,000 from 1st Oct 19 to 1st Feb 20).

I'm going on WHO data. However we can't* use estimated or historical data with 2019-nCoV as it is still ongoing. If we were to only use severe cases of 2019-nCoV then the projected CFR would be higher (*I say we can't, we can but doing so doesn't guarantee accurate numbers).

If we only use closed case data for Covid-19 at present (2.7k deaths/33k closed cases = 8%) but we have another 48k ongoing cases with 8.9k classed as serious/critical. Even if all 8.9k were to die we would have at present numbers, 11.6k proj deaths/81k proj close case = 14.3%.

We can't rely on projected data in an ongoing case. One because that elevates it way higher than the current rate. Two, we already know the case rate is starting to plateau.

As to why CDC uses ALL data for Flu and WHO seemingly only uses medium to severe cases, I have no idea but when comparing world data, it is equally unfair to use data from only one country (albeit one with 300m people) for Flu and world data for Covid-19.

I get your point but until Covid-19 is "over" and we know the extent of deaths to severe/medium cases ratio. We will have no idea of the real CFR%.

The point really being, using deaths only, is that Flu has a range of 250k - 600k per year. At present Covid-19 has 2.7k  (ongoing) after 2 mnths. IF we have to project and replicate Covid-19 over the short historical data available, there would be 486k cases with 16.2k deaths giving 3.33%.

For measure, MERS, which hardly anyone heard much about had a CFR of 34.4% (some 840+ deaths from c2.4k cases).

All we do know is that 2019-nCoV has some way to go to surpass the number set by Influenza. Factor in that Flu does have vaccines and it still pulls in a good chunk of deaths. Imagine if there were no Flu vaccine, and there would be even more deaths to Flu. At present 2019-nCoV has no vaccine but as stated, case numbers are plateauing. Indicating being contained. So when a vaccine becomes available, if "THE Coronavirus" is still around/rears itself again, we should and hope that death numbers would be much lower.

Oi you two! Stop interrupting Horlock and Paul’s drivel  ;)

:sigh: You could have just said you used the wrong figures. Okay, one more post and I'm done.


It's not equally unfair, by using the death rate for severe cases of flu you massively distorted it's risk versus coronavirus. Even if we had a figure for deaths from severe cases of coronavirus, how deadly a virus is in severe cases tells us nothing about how deadly it is to catch. That's a complete red herring.

I couldn't find a figure for global infections so I extrapolated the figure for the US across the world, something I pointed out was a danger(the US figure could have been an anomaly, or the US could have a much higher infection rate per year than the rest of the world). I wasn't trying to get published in The Lancet though, I was just highlighting how wildly out your figure was.

39 million cases of flu in the US is about 12% of the population. Let's be slightly cautious and say it's 6% for the entire world(I know that could still be too high).

6% of the world's population is about 450,000,000.

Estimated flu deaths each year are 250,000-500,000

That gives a fatality rate of 0.055-0.11%


That's some goalpost-shifting Reg would be proud of. I actually agree that there is too much scaremongering and people get too hysterical, but as Aristotle said, 'Fear is pain arising from the anticipation of evil'. It looks to be spreading and current rates of death are far higher than from flu, so people are concerned. Dismissing things can be just as dangerous as exaggerating them. There's a reason China has gone to such extreme measures to try and contain it, and the only public figures I've seen dismissing it's severity are Trump and batshit crazy Cambodian dictator Hun Sen.

The CDC stats show that the flu had a death rate of approximately 0.1% in 2018-2019.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Coronavirus is thought to have a death rate of around 1%, making it MUCH more deadly. While healthy individuals should have little reason to be concerned, that 1% could still result in millions of deaths if it is not contained. In my novice opinion, it seems that it is too late to contain it.

There are also other concerns because, as a new virus, it is still unpredictable.

We used to have the Corona man come round on a Friday evening with his fizzy pop🥤

I remember him. I wonder what the death rate of that stuff was.

Thursday in Gorse Hill where i grew up, Cherry was my favourite.

As for the virus, I see lots of rumours that it was created in a lab in China coming out on the US press, I doubt we will ever really know the truth. As FH says the unpredicability is the thing with this, it could well mutate yet.

Why do these ‘things’ invariably originate in China? Some suggest it’s their poor animal welfare.

I think the milkman used to bring it around. Fizzy pop and 2 pints of silver top.

When you say "invariably", there's been two - SARS (aka bird flu) and this. But yes both have been ascribed as being due to poor animal welfare, or rather the initial outbreaks have been traced back to poor hygiene/welfare standards in open air livestock markets. Plenty of other such "panic pandemic" diseases that didn't come from China - Ebola and HIV for example more recently, or the "Spanish Flu" pandemic of the 20th century.

Encouragingly, he's now put Mike Pence in charge, a man who's public health policies (or rather lack of as he ignored the public health considerations in favour of ideology) were directly responsible for a widespread HIV outbreak in Indiana when he was governor.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/02/26/pence-record-on-hiv-crisis-criticized-as-trump-puts-him-in-charge-of-coronovirus/4887566002/

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/how-mike-pence-allowed-the-indiana-hiv-outbreak-to-spread/
So that will all work out fine.

Spanish flu may have originated in China ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu



But I get your point regardless.

https://news.sky.com/story/cdc-which-facial-hair-styles-are-best-for-preventing-coronavirus-spread-11944169
I'm fucked....

Im off to Naples start of Aprill. Would the club consider opening up Stratton Bank for me to watch our title run in?

 

I've had a dry tickly cough for a few days now, no shortness of breath though. Well no more than normal.

My Daughter's class have just returned from a skiing trip to northern Italy, and straight back to school. I'm sure none of them came into contact with the virus, but it's obviously going to be a concern for the next couple of weeks!

I was in Rome last August.

Bollocks :)

Anyone can be a carrier of the virus, but they may not get the symptoms til weeks/months down the line.

So this is a disease that could selectively wipe out hipsters? There's an upside to everything :)

You better not post on here for the next 14 days then!

Or only post in this thread?

 :D My daughter didn't go on the trip, but several of her friends did. I look forward to seeing you all at the CG on Tuesday  :puke:

(https://scontent.flhr4-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/88097755_2910501742350563_2982227442673909760_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=CVyt--H3fkgAX_fWuGQ&_nc_ht=scontent.flhr4-2.fna&oh=95a3dff57e3263bfd2e8e120e7277944&oe=5EFB9D1E)

Gnasher is going to kill everybody. If you see him outside then you should hit him with sticks and stuff.

A long stick, to avoid contamination.

Good point.

Better still - throw bricks from afar.

(http://www.khalidzaheer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/stonning-islam-fistis.jpg)

CDC only covers data extrapolated for the US. WHO covers data for...the world.

WHO states cases of severe seasonal flu are 3-5m, with 250k-600k deaths annually.

As I've already stated. The 2019-nCoV case rate is already starting to plateau. Especially in the countr(ies)y with most cases. China with around 79k of the 81/82k cases worldwide. Most other countries have very low cases. Only Italy seemingly having a higher case to death ratio. But we must stress. The numbers are still very small.

All this will be fucking chip paper by May.

Don't forget Iran is almost certainly lying about its numbers. They have a 10% death rate which doesn't correlate with the rest of the world.

Provide the figures for ALL cases of flu or your numbers are meaningless and should be ignored.

1. It wouldn't be "deadly to catch". It's likely it is highly contagious, like the flu. But SO FAR contagion to deaths is low and importantly (and already pointed out) the case rate has started to plateau.

2. I already mentioned the "Flu would have to have 500m cases worldwide" to match the 500k and 0.1%  US death data from CDC. Yet that would be a pure guess. Which would be understandable for Covid-19 as it doesn't have enough historical data. With Flu (for Worldwide figures), we should not be having to guess. You probs missed me mention it, amongst my letter to the Lancet.

I think we'll both be choosing figures that suit both our narratives but until Covid-19 epidemic has ended then we both won't know the real figures. Should be done with by May.

On another note, there is quite a bit about the source of Covid-19 being a developed and released pathogen (of a Flu variant) from a Lab in Wuhan.

What concerns me more is that the current UK government seemed very slow to react. Maybe they have information that means they didn't need to respond erratically or rush people home? Or maybe they're so inept that if a scenario developed, where a much quicker and contagious pathogen were leaked here, our current government don't appear as equipped to deal with or respond to a much more threatening outbreak. When mirrored to their recent response.

And yes this is coming from someone who previously worked in a capacity to respond to such attacks. I was confident back then and I was confident in my colleagues as well as any contingency. I'm sure plenty on here will have a good chuckle "NoShop?! Trained as part of an Emergency Response team relating to Chemical & Nuclear warfare? Massive lolz."

Anyway, that's another story.

According to this, there were 29 million cases of flu in the USA. It’s the complications brought on by the flu that kills people.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182

Of course they should, oh master of the TEF.

I can only use world data that is available and that data comes from the WHO. Seeing as the WHO deal with data concerning the World and not just one country.

Indeed but even then we are still taking very small numbers. I wouldn't necessarily trust Iranian press releases, then again - I don't trust many press releases any more   :-(

You are trying to compare deaths from ALL instances of coronavirus with only SEVERE instances of the flu.

It's apples and pears. It tells us nothing.

I’m off panic buying!

2000 mile border with China, and Russia has 0 cases. Go figure.

That Novichok has wiped the floor with Corona

Just reading a bit about the Spanish flu 1918 to 1920, killed 25 million in the first 25 weeks  :eek:
What was unusual is that it affected the young adults more than the elderly and young.

Killed more than the 1st and 2nd world war put together. I'm on a Local Govt corona committee and rolled that out last week. That stopped anyone panicking for sure.

So basically you're disregarding Influenza data from the WHO?

I actually provided data from medium to severe flu and projected medium to severe case data from Covid-19 (amongst all the rambling). I know exactly the difference between ALL and SEVERE. No need to be so condescending Mr Flashheart. It's ok, I know shit becomes cyclical on here so;

If we take the current medium to severe case figures of c46k for Covid-19 and match that with current deaths c2.8k gives us a CFR (at present) of c6%

Do the same for Influenza Sub Type A (H1N1/H1N2) - aka Seasonal Flu - c3-5m medium to severe cases annually to deaths annually 250k - 600k (I'll use the middle for both if ok with you) so c4m (msc) to c400k (d) gives us a CFR of c10%. As previously stated the annual range can be 5% - 20%.

Anyway, I'm sure a percentage of you will be having a glorious tug about this in the Lounge  :pint:

Russia has had 2 cases. However population and logistics isn't the most high end thing along that border so less chance of transmitting but it's still an interesting point.

Considering viruses like this trend to thrive in colder conditions it does raise a few questions as to why Russia, and Scandinavian countries have had only 1/2/3 cases so far? Maybe this is where Covid-19 is a little weaker and doesn't like it extreme cold?

Likely those cases are just from returning travellers but it makes for more interesting discussion than going back and forth over numbers.

I think you've rather overestimated the level of interest your flu debate is generating. Although tbf personally I'm finding it quite interesting :)

Nope.

I am saying that you are comparing apples and pears.

Incidentally, I found this:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If this is right, then out of all known active cases of coronavirus, 18% are considered to be serious or critical. I wonder how that would compare to the flu? My guess is that serious cases of the flu would be a much, much lower percentage of overall cases.

Having said that, I don't even know how 'serious' is being defined here.

Any data on man-flu mortality? Or being caught mid-ship?

100%+

I've died from it several times.

Despite, I think, only 1 confirmed case in Greece, the government have ordered ALL carnivals throughout the country to be abandoned.

Talk about overkill

Well read the whole of that last response and you'll see I'm not. But whatever FH. Can't beat one of the Master & Commanders of the TEF :soapy tit wank:
Funny though, you do always target me on here as soon as you disagree with me. Yet there's tons of things we do agree on yet you never interact then?   :hmmm:


Agreed. The term 'serious' could of course be defined/interpreted differently. This could easily change figures depending in how they wanted to be represented.

Makes me think of when big companies have research done, to make their product be percieved in a positive way. When independent research labs come out and have produced data that contrasts this. Phillip Morris at Big Tobacco would be a good example of disregarding independent data and using their "preferred" labs.

Blimey.

You are an odd one.

That's nothing new but good way to avoid answering the question.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

This is definitely a reliable source because the website has the word science in it. Some COVID-19 stats in there for the interested... 15% mortality rate for the over 80s, 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes patients and 2.3% overall mortality although all are likely overestimated due to the number of mild cases not diagnosed. Still, these mortality rates are high and a significant number of people will be rightfully worried if they get it which is why the media is shitting the bed about this.

The media are shitting the bed about this because they know sensationalist scare stories sell papers and generate clicks. Not saying this isn't actually quite scary this time, but the media would be shitting the bed whether it was the new Black Death or the new Black Lace. They've long since given up on their primary duty of providing actual information.

Not read this all the way through yet, but what I have read is interesting. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/


Ah the media.... from the tweetbox this morning...

Anna Roberts
@journoannie
CORONAVIRUS: Are you keeping your secondary school child at home because you think your child's school should be shut, but it isn't? If so email [email protected] or DM me, thanks, Anna

Yet the headline itself is misleading "Why some Covid-19 cases are worse than others?"

Well the overriding factor is people. People with different levels of health/immune systems/toleration. The virus itself isn't known to have been mutating into other strains (yet). So the reason why some cases might be worse, isn't the virus so much but hoomans.

Ffs Anna! How to turn Mumsnet into a worried frenzy.

I think I may have read that Atlantic article already. May have been another but was definitely Atlantic.

There’s got to be a chance of the Tokyo Olympics being called off if this doesn’t settle down soon.

That's what? 5 new countries today?

Including Nigeria. Something like this might run riot in Africa.

We've only had 16 confirmed cases in the UK from nearly 8000 people tested.

I'm reminded of this  :)

https://youtu.be/_Q_xpos5-XY

This.

I'm taking sensible precautions, checking the news and following latest govt advice etc. but I don't buy into the doomsday predictions.

Yep, bird flu, swine flu etc. A different strain appears from time to time.

I'm inclined to go to the Winchester for a nice cold pint and just wait for it to blow over?

(https://scontent.flhr4-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/85202603_1603217073165463_3272225992436875264_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=Yq25MX3AurUAX8P9Ix6&_nc_ht=scontent.flhr4-2.fna&oh=5a1aa2487d43810cb6e86627852104ad&oe=5EB8F143)

Spot on 4D. We had the same panic over both of those

https://www.facebook.com/groups/swindontownfcfans/permalink/2453283204923916/

https://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/18268348.parent-tells-coronavirus-concerns-handshake-policy-goddard-park/

Jesus. Fucking. Wept. Self-isolation is clearly the only answer for people like these. They should be encouraged to lock themselves in their houses and not come out. Ever.

TBF  If it went to epic proportions in the UK I could see football postponements. Rugby have already done it for the Italy six nations games.

UAE Tour also gone pop, mid race.

Yes of course. But "Sounds like a very good chance the season could end this weekend. Tomorrow could be the last game.." is just twattery.

Yep. Yet how many people in the UK (honestly) heard of or remembers MERS when it happened. Not to get into a "numbers" debate but that had a CFR of 34.4% ::)

MERS' mortality rate is one of the reasons containment was possible, same for Ebola & SARS.  High mortality rates combined with severe illness to most patients means they do not interact with others so freely.  That why this one has the "potential" to be a threat - a higher mortality rate (or so it seems based on what data is available so far) but still a very low one overall which means people are more likely to contract and pass on.

The reality is it doesn't even have to be a global event with high deaths to create a problem worthy of reporting - it already has due to the location of the original outbreak.  Supply chains have already been impacted, profits will be taking a hit right now, it's the economic impact this one will be remembered for, even if it goes on to be well contained.

The rhetoric from those that know about this stuff seems to be shifting towards inevitability.

We've had our first Brit casualty, apparently. 

Those who lurk in the corridors of power across the globe might not be overly upset if a significant percentage of over 80's for example were lost to the virus. This one or the next one. It matters not.

They would in the UK, that's their powerbase!


We have albeit not in the UK.

Not only that, Priti Patel's relying on them to gather in the harvest and work in the care homes looking after themselves!

I've been wondering whether someone can sit Trump down in front of a TV and pop World War Z on, pretend it's news coverage and see if it changes his view on the effectiveness of big walls.

 :Ride On Fatbury's Lovestick:

Close the thread. I could see him doing a press conference off the back of it. Maybe show him Cloverfield too and explain that it's footage recovered from the camera of a deceased witness. 28 Days Later would work too but he may recognise Christopher Eccleston as "isn't he that Dr dude?! I like him. Very intelligent. I would like him as my doctor."

I would not be surprised if some games are played behind closed doors. WHO have declared their highest emergency level now - albeit without declaring a pandemic.

I'm not sure how that works TBH, surely it would have to be a pandemic at least to be the highest level?

Work colleagues are now gleefully preparing for the inevitable quarantine once the first confirmed case in Bristol emerges.

I thought that too. Maybe it has to be ranked at the highest level for a sustained period until it is deemed a pandemic.

Another thought. Call me a dubious cunt (because that is what I am) but FUD. I wonder who high up the chain, has vested interests to make some cut price investments.

A nice wedge to be made by anyone if investing is your game. If you're looking to get in, this is an opportunity. This won't affect the markets forever and your investments will soon be up.*

With fear, uncertainty and doubt being spread by misinformation you can look back in a year and be happy you put in a grand or whatever you can afford.




*They may go down before they go up but that's fine, chance to buy in cheaper. More gains later on  :pint:

There will be some bargains to be had for sure. In crashes like this, even companies and industries that aren't effected can get trashed. I'd beware of companies that it will have a material impact on trading though, even if you think it will be short lived. Some without strong balance sheets will be pushed to the brink, even if does fizzle out.

Another way to think about it is, which companies will benefit if it carries on? Home delivery services for example. NCYT has had a pretty huge rise because they've got a testing kit I think, I haven't looked into how well positioned they are to capitalise.

It has brought a funny story, for me given my industry, around investments.  For all the glitz and glamour, algorithms and high flyers making decisions, Zoom Technologies keeps getting a share price boost thanks to being of a similar name to Zoom Video Communications.  On the day the latter launched their IPO, the former saw their share price go from 0.005 cents per share to $5!

Did you have any shares Rob? That's the kind of anomaly to spot/predict.  For fun though it would be worthwhile diversifying in several shares under a similar name of an established company. I'm no pro at all but my own take is when the common or "media" traders tell you things are bad and we should sell. I buy.

That's called contrarian trading. It can be hugely successful, if you get it right. The old dear's fella made a bundle on investing in house builders at the height of the global financial crisis. As I mentioned before you have to be careful that whoever you invest in can ride out the storm, and it's also when hidden problems tend to come out. As Warren Buffet said, 'Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.'

Every trader or share dealer should be made to work in a coal mine or an abattoir for a month. Mainly just for being useless human beings with no purpose, except self purpose.

Yeah, if you want to hate humanity more you should read some of the discussion boards for Ncyt. People getting excited about the spread of the virus. It's the same with oil stocks and probably loads of other things I haven't thought of, glee about conflict in the Middle East etc.

I'm good as i am without getting more depressed about things thanks!

Indeed. I have several investments in various places. It is a high risk strategy but with certain ones I'm sure they have the capital behind them, to "ride out" multiple set backs. I'm also prepared/comfortable knowing I can afford to lose what I've put in. Nothing is at risk per se (only what I've put in) and most of them are long term investments.

There are two or three that have very consistent trading patterns on a month to month basis. These are considered very high risk but I would be comfortable rolling the dice on them more so than some of my football bets. More often than not people don't get involved because they hear the top end horror stories of people putting all their eggs into one thing and then some more (that they don't have). When it goes tits up they are truly fucked.

Once I get to a certain position, I'll take out what I put in then "play" with a chunk and leave some just to mature (hopefully).

https://ivygrove.org.uk/coronavirus.html#mythbuster

An official guidance-cum-myth sheet. I'm not sure but it seems to be targeting very thick, beer swilling racists mostly.

A lot of the "questions" on there are incredible but the penultimate one...well. I'll let you all have some fun with this.

You need to have a word with them about their figures  ;)

 :soapy tit wank: You got me there!

Cheltenham Festival 13/8 to get called off due to the virus.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/racing-specials/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-festival-specials/will-racing-go-ahead-cheltenham-10th-mar

Racing people will bet on anything :)

France has banned all gatherings of over 5000 people.

Makes a difference

Is a football stadium indoors or outdoors?

Hmm, good question. Ask the French :)

If that happens here I lose work on 2 Lewis Capaldi shows and a Pussycat Dolls tour.

I wonder if it falls under force majeure or will my employers claim on insurance and honour my wages.

If not, anyone want to buy a kidney?

We don’t need to now we have left the EU. 🤣🤣🤣

As usual, spectacularly missing the point. Woosh

Surely they'd be insured for that if it's by govt order? Same as claiming on holiday insurance if the Foreign Office put your destination on a "Oooh, I wouldn't if I were you" list?

We do have cancellation insurance.  Depends on the terms.  Acts of God and Force Majeure can be used to get out of an awful lot buy insurers.  We'll see. 

Fingers crossed for you. If it starts to have a serious economic impact, I'm looking at a triple whammy on top of Brexit and IR35. Oh happy days.

I'm hoping it will fuck up the Baht.

Bit harsh, STFCBarts's not even posted on here for ages

They certainly will! Currently £672,851 matched on the market.

https://bossip.com/1846042/yall-are-so-dumb-38-of-ale-adoring-americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-because-of-coronavirus/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Small model but still. Correlates with my earlier posting RE:Factsheet-cum-Mythbuster!

 :pint:

Although it's actually a load of bollocks, and 38% of Americans did NOT say they wouldn't drink Corona because of the coronavirus. Just misleading PR guff.

https://factcheck.thedispatch.com/p/are-38-percent-of-americans-avoiding

Can you still get 10p back on the bottle ?

Time to jump off a cliff, what with Brexit and the Conservatives in for a decade. Achoo, achoo.

I think they said this does not apply to football

How many deaths have the UK had?

‘Cemeteries and crematoriums are also reported to be drawing up plans to deal with a rise in bodies, with families possibly being allowed to hold funerals in their homes, schools, pubs or hotels if churches and chapels become overwhelmed.’

Confirmed case just over the border in Tetbury, getting closer

there's currently only 35 cases confirmed  in Britain.

obviously it could get far far far worse.

I think I heard government contingency planning is made on a 70% population infection rate.

if my maffs ain't screwy, that's 464K deaths.


let's hope we get nowhere near worst case

I’ve had a sore throat for 3 days. It’s the first sign apparently!

Run for the hills!

...and I think if we're all honest, we know it'll be significantly more in reality.

My error but I read it as 38% of 737 people interviewed and not the whole of the USA of course. But if it's bollocks my only excuse (and poor one) is I read it at 1am and pretty much posted it here after reading so didn't check!


That's quote is horribly scaremongering towards the public way more than is necessary. There aren't going to be mass deaths here from it. Yes a lot of people may catch it (still believe the numbers will be small relatively) but a lot aren't going to die and not in genocidal impacting style ways.

Think the operative word there is "if".


I'm sure you're aware Batch but;

1. Confirmed cases really doesn't mean confirmed deaths. I wish the media would stop painting it like this.
2. It could but it won't get far, far, far worse here.
3. We won't. 450k-500k UK Deaths is quite frankly not going to happen in a year or even 10 years.

Just for a look at a different virus, which seemingly doesn't stop people going about their day to day lives;

Mosquito-borne diseases kill around 3000 people per day, every year. Many have conveniently forgotten about the fucking Zika virus though, of which there's no specific treatment for it. Yet we don't see everyone in those affected countries losing their shit "just in case they get it". No one sunbathes in Brazil do they? Yet Zika has an 8.3% CFR. Malaria has, wait for it, 200 million new cases reported every year too.

https://www.who.int/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/malaria

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034118300431

of course I know the difference between cases and deaths . 400k deaths is 70% of UK population infected, 1% mortality.

I'm not saying we'll get a 70% infection rate. I've no idea. it'll hopefully be like sars/bird flu/swine flu. nasty  but nowhere near as bad as could be.

I'm just pointing out the reason the government is talking in those terms  is because they are planning to worst case.

if they didn't plan to that, they'd be negligent.

scarring the public may have a positive effect on this case anyway. namely self isolation precautions where needed, and being more sanitary in hygine.

.

Sorry. I agree with all of that except the last bit. Well it'll have a positive effect for the government, by doing what they love doing...keeping people in their demographic boxes. I can understand what you're thinking though.

I just feel the pudding is being over-egged way more than necessary and that's my personal opinion. If only then, the government were this proactive and zero tolerant when it came to humanitarian issues like racism and suchlike.

Unfortunately, they'll only really worry anyway when it has a danger of effecting their investment funds (which in some markets, may have already done) "call to action!"

It's not even that. 38% of the 737 said they didn't intend to drink Corona, but that wasn't related to coronavirus, just they didn't intend to drink it because (e.g.) they didn't drink it normally anyway. Only 4% of the 737 said they didn't intend to carry on drinking Corona and it's not clear whether that is because of coronavirus or just because. As a proper pollster commented in the factcheck piece of the claim that 38% of Americans are going to stop drinking Corona because of coronavirus "It's a sensational, inaccurate, and flat-out dumb thing to say that is not based in the data at all."

Yeah but they're all foreign people so they don't count. This could affect British people for Gods' sake!

Zika? I’ll raise you with Ebola.

Quoted and noted  ;)


I know! I know! Bloody disgusting that God hasn't waded in on this and had his say! After all it is usually his "way".

3 cases in my town now. Imported from Italy. I preferred pasta and Sergio tachinni

Not really been following this much, because frankly, i don't care. Its mass propaganda and scaremongering.

Had an email from a colleague in the states telling me that someone legitimately arrived to work yesterday in full hazmat suit. I have not reason to believe this person is lying.

Not being one to read the tabloids, all I've read is mostly 'sober' reporting on what the WHO are saying.

The press are certainly reporting what *could* happen in a sensationalist way. But its hardly bullshit, just may not happen.

The govenment are very much preparing for the worst and hoping (and taking measures) for the best.

I’m struggling to make sense of the government’s scenario.

So far, there have been 90,000 cases of Coronavirus with approx 3000 deaths - worldwide.

The government reckons there’s a possibility of 48 million cases and 500,000 deaths - in the UK!

Bring out yer dead!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg

Are you looking forward to your visit in a few weeks Aud? :)

Possibility not probability. Its too late to plan if things turn for the worst.

Hancock was on radio 4 earlier, it was pointed out that 2-4% of the population needing hospitalisation would be 2 million+ - hence no chance - hence home nursing. Said they were in the process of buying use at home respirators!

Timeframe given for it to get worse was "weeks" and timeframe for getting back tgo normal  was months.

But again - what *could* happen not will.
--

its much like bird flu to my mind. The government stockpiled tamiflu - then realised it didn't do as muuch as they thought. Thankfully not needed en-mass.

It's akin to buying travel insurance.

The chances are that you will not need to use it, but you'd be very glad that you did have it if you did need it.

Could you imagine if it did hit the country and the government had no plans to deal with it? That, and it's all very well of accusing people of scaremongering, but the chances of it becoming a pandemic would likely switch from possible to inevitable if measures were not taken to contain it.

If it does not become a pandemic, then the reason would probably be down to the restrictions that have been made on movement and what not. Still, you'd get rather a lot of people saying the restrictions were all a waste of time because the pandemic didn't happen *logic*

Yep. I’ll be there OK.

Unless football has been turned off!

There are plenty of valid reasons on a daily basis to criticise this government.

Preparing for the worst in this scenario isn’t one of them. They have to do it, it would be downright irresponsible to not plan in this way, it certainly isn’t scaremongering.

I’m sure the plans would be a shambles should the worst occur but that’s not the point
 

All the best people.

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1234661401488052226

I think we need a vaccination against stupidity?

(https://i.postimg.cc/jqgHkd4q/Untitled.png)

Fair fucking play from RC-C there. I think he's redeemed himself.

Just for the record, I made it up ;)

I think that's going to turn out to be a parody account.


Ah, damn good work.

Glad to have been well and truly rogered on that one. Would love it if he tweeted it though. Would show great humility.

Good work and happy returns for the other  :pint:

Indeed. I love it  :)

Thank you :)

Yes I think RCC went to tweet it but the phone slipped through his hands onto the floor ;)

Welcome.

Booom booom! I did tell him that wearing "Magic" gloves from the Flea market were not the kind of sponsors he should be attracting. He took my advice and invested in Flora instead  :soapy tit wank:

Neville southall tweeted that yesterday

Yeah he did, Max Rushden retweeted it. Tres amuseant whoever made it up!

Think can safely say that the cyclists being quarantined after the UAE Tour was halted mid race are getting bored now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sr9eFRw0XA

Indeed, I take no credit for the joke, but I added RCC to it and changed the words a little as hes a much more useless keeper than Southall ever was and ex Town too.

Scientists: you should wash your hands because of Coronavirus.

People: I'm gonna stop flying, hoard masks, work from home & totally rearrange my life.

Also Scientists: the climate crisis will kill millions - we must use clean power & change how we get to work.

Same people: No way.

Problem is I don't think we can afford to be blase about it, or be dismissive of those that are genuinely worried. It does spread faster than the common cold or flu, and it does currently have a higher mortality rate based on reported cases (not including cases that aren't detected), that's going by the number scientists are putting out there on a plethora of non media sites.

I'm not worried about catching the virus as I am 30 and fairly healthy (bar asthma), I could handle it. What I am slightly concerned about is catching it and then giving it to my 88 year old Grandad who survived Shingles, Bowel Cancer, and a stroke in the last 4 years, along with the two major surgeries and as a result has the immune system of a kebab. He catches it and he will not cope well with it and most likely succumb to the disease its causes. Grandma would also not deal with it as she is ill all the time and has the added hardship of dementia and not eating enough.

I think the media are hyping it up a bit, but most countries are making decisions and giving out updated based on facts and scientific evidence. You can't tell me that all these powerful organisations are also buying into the hype the media are creating?

Whats annoying is all the panic buying, but I can understand it as its the human condition to try and increase your odds of survival by preparing. Everyone should always have a few extra days worth of tinned food just incase something happens, not a massive stockpile but enough to get you through a few days.

I will definitely be buying an extra tin of soups or beans on my next shop but not filling up a trolly with a months supply. 

I'm going to ask the misses to go out and buy a load of food and stuff.

I'm not panicking about the virus, but I'd better at least get something in before everybody else goes on a panic.

There’s a flock of sheep not 50 yards from our door. They won’t miss one!

I'm restricting my news source on it to the BBC's website and, as shite as they have been in recent months, they are doing a pretty good job of reporting the facts only.

If people are getting their news from the tabloids then they only have themselves to blame. Not that I'm accusing anybody of that, except for those that are.

Has the daily mail managed to blame Muslims yet?

Australia had a serious outbreak of panic buying toilet roll. People were buying literally dozens of rolls, trolleys full. I mean, tissues I could kind of understand but bog roll? WTF?

My best mate was hanging out with his mate from Australia and dropped her off at the airport on Saturday.

She's just tested positive for Coronavirus and he has to be quarantined for two weeks. Hope he doesn't have it as I was at the Scunny game with him on Tuesday!

You probably do - this is what the increased testing is going to show, lots of people do because it's been out and about travelling the world for months.  The mortality rate will drop as a result, but that doesn't mean it's not something to worry about - the impact on the elderly is going to be the thing to watch.  The nursing home in Washington State and the Cruise Ship being good examples of what will happen when those at risk in confined spaces can expect to face once exposed.  For most of us, the Aussie bog roll approach is probably all we'd need to worry about IF we never saw another human being and could transfer it on.

As it happens, I've booked a cruise - the prices were slashed and I imagine it will be much less busy than normal.

They have dock leaves there too  ???

Not MP?

https://newsthump.com/2020/03/05/uks-best-racists-working-round-the-clock-to-blame-coronavirus-on-sadiq-khan/

It shocks me how many men don't wash their hands after using public urinals and very often after taking a dump - just straight out the door afterwards. Filthy animals.

I think I have an order that might be coming from China, there isn't a restriction on goods is there?

No, it doesn't survive on surfaces for more than a few days, if that.

Less amusinlgy there's already been racist attacks as a result of the virus. Or using the virus as an excuse, might be more accurate

A great footballer, but:

(https://i.imgur.com/2rc00mr.png)

I witnessed a black guy deliberately bump into a Chinese guy today. When the Chinese guy asked what the problem was, he was told to " Fuck off you coronavirus shit" The human race is fantastic.

What a prick.

I think I was definitely in the minority in washing my hands when I left the delightful toilets in the Townend on Tuesday

WHO has revised the mortality rate to 3.4%.

To be clear, that is a mortality rate for reported cases. Which is, obviously, accurate for what it is, but can give rise to some misleadingly alarming headlines about how deadly it actually is. Without wanting to do a Trump, it's likely the mortality rate for all cases is significantly lower as there will be many thousands of undeclared and undetected cases that do not result in death

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-who-director-generals-comments-that-3-4-of-reported-covid-19-cases-have-died-globally/

Thanks Paul, I think we are all aware of that. *

The point is that it still appears to be killing more people than previously thought.

*That was a bit more 'bitey' than was intended, but the 'akshuallys' on social media in general recently have been grating a tad.

Meanwhile:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA1wqjaeKj0

Trouble is,  no matter how well you wash your hands if the guy in front of you hasn't what's the first thing you do ??, use the same door handle to get out of the bogs,  makes the whole thing a pointless exercise !!.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77IZttD_pU8 (1:5o) onwards

I wait for someone else to either walk in or walk out, then hold the door open with my foot. This can be an issue in some underused public conveniences, where you could wait hours or even days before someone else walks in.

   :D :D

It really doesn't. By the same logic, there's no point ever having a bath or shower because at some point you'll just get dirty again. Obviously at some point you will use your hands and they will come into contact with an unclean surface. The point is to keep washing your hands regularly to mitigate the chances of the virus spreading.

I might wear some disposable gloves to the game tomorrow.
Are we still likely to be frisked at the turnstiles?

If you ask nicely

First case reported in Swindon

Mask as well as gloves tomorrow then.

No worries, I'm coming from Reading tomorrow where we had the first death and we've had loads of confirmed cases. Super spreader.

Gimp?

Seen this earlier....

Obviously as this continues 1000s of businesses will suffer reduced revenue. As this is a football forum however, imagine the effects on lower league clubs if games were played behind closed doors. premier league etc dont need fans due to tv. would season ticket holders be given refunds? would you ask for it back if you couldn't watch again this season but knowing that the club would suffer huge financials?

clubs suffer in the summer without games but that can be forecasted.

Potentially could just make Ifollow available to everyone, possibly not going to get the same kind of revenue but could help

With the death rate in Italy shooting up over the weekend, they're now seeing a mortality rate of about 4.9% of *confirmed* cases. That's a lot worse than even the WHO figures last week.

One thing to note in Italy is the age distribution. Italy has a larger proportion of older citizens due to the birth rate of 1.9, which means that the population is shrinking and the average age is increasing, this is not the case in other countries. Consequently the mortality rate is likely to be higher.

Italy actually has the 5th highest average age in the world - so on that basis it makes a lot of sense.

The death rate of confirmed cases is at nearly 4% in America, although they have a fucked up health system.

And US stocks tumble 7% as soon as they open before being temporarily halted. Lots of people reckon it's going to be a seriously bad crash.

Because temporary and exceptional and with the club retaining 70% of the fee it could certainly help.  By no means impossible that it will come to this.  Although a few mates or families gathered together would diminish viewer revenue potential, unlike actual gates at the CG.  

Perhaps some advertising might help also, eg Andrex, handgel and tinned food?  Imagine Cruising by contrast can't be too optimistic at present.

Did I read somewhere that if you get compulsorily quarantined in a US hospital you have to pay for the privilege, nice!

If it came to closed door games or a delay in the season then the FA will have to work out how to financially help out the likes of us. Assuming the Government doesn't legislate financial relaxation to help cashflow.

iFollow revenues won't cut it .

Land of the free...but not in cash terms.

There was a guy on the radio the other day explaining why they have and will continue to have a massive rate of underdetection and hence more infections due to not diagnosing cases who then continue to wander round infecting people. At the moment, they don't have enough testing kits. They're ramping up production but it's going to be a race as to whether they can outstrip the rate of the virus spreading. Even if they do, lots of people who should be getting tested won't because while the tests themselves are free, associated costs will vary from state to state and even hospital to hospital. In some places it will be completely free. In others, the test will be free but the patient will be expected to pay for the doctor/nurse to administer the test, the lab time to analyse the results, the room in the hospital where the test is administered etc i..e only the test kit will be free, you'll get billed for everything else which could run into 1000s of dollars. Add in that there's no paid sick leave in the US and lots of people are not going to be able to afford to self-isolate or to even get tested to see if they should. It's a recipe for a disastrous failure to contain the spread.

Never has the case been so starkly made that the NHS and the welfare state are a public good from which we all benefit.

I do wonder actually. 70% of income from iFollow subs at £10 in the UK - I wonder if the club clear £7 net on tickets once all matchday costs have been accounted for. If average ticket price is say £16 with STs and concessions (and I bet it's less), £7 would be over 40% margin, which I'll wager is rather more than we make on matchdays. Just a question of how many people would sign up.

Worst thing is it could create a habit...

One thing I didn't realise is how much more widespread this already is compared to other major viruse outbreaks. I've always said its going to be like SARS was...but it isn't



             Year        Cases      Deaths      Mort     Countries
Ebola      1976,      33577,    13562,      40.4,     9
Nipah      1998,         513,        398,      77.6,     2
SARS      2002,       8096,        774,       9.6,      29
MERS      2012,       2494,        858,      34.4,     28   
COVID-19 2020,  111365,      3892,        3.5      102

Thank crap that the mortality rate is "only" 3.5% in mostly in "Rooney terroritory".
If it really takes hold though....but I guess signs from China are encouraging

You have a point, season ticket holders would presumably get it free (home games)? Plus a fair few technophobes that wouldn't bother/be able to.

Its interesting point you make though. Could be right.

Amazing how much America and Iran are similar (Iran do not test which is why its been so lively over there!)

They're not. The Chinese have basically imposed martial law over wide areas of the country to contain it, including the full nine yards of Cultural Revolution style public beatings, disappearing people etc. Not sure any western country would be prepared to accept that so we can't really draw much from their model

We’re booked in to visit at the end of the month. I’ve got no problem with it but Mrs Audrey had a very bad bout of pneumonia a few years back which left her with a scarred lung. Not surprisingly, she’s a bit more wary.

Not sure what to do, tbh.

My boy's just been telling me all about the carbonaravirus.

It's highly contagious, let's hope he hasn't pasta it on

Was that a linguinistic error?

Or a slip of the penne?

Whilst using a potential disaster, during the disaster, is not usually good form for making a political point.  I do wonder if this will see the door beginning to be pushed ajar for some form of guarantee'd minimum healthcare coverage.

The vast majority of illnesses and healthcare tend to be described as things that happen to the individual, whereas this is going to be someone elses fault that you get it, every time!

I have no doubt that a big % of the population here would avoid testing through fear of charges.  There was a case in Florida of a person claiming they were charged for a test - the industry quickly moved to dispel such a notion by pointing out he had presented with symptoms without any of the triggers for Covid-19, so he was tested for multiple illnesses.  On insisting he got the Covid-19 test, he was administered for free.  This of course completely missed the point that he wouldn't have gone in for anything if the world had not been informing everyone who is ill that they might have Covid-19, so while the test was free he did indeed get a whopping bill by going in for it!!!!

Trump was at the CDC on Friday and when asked about the ship in port at San Fran he said he wasn't keen on them being allowed off because it would make the USA numbers looks bad.

So, a combination of private healthcare and a President who knows fuck all about anything =  prime conditions for an epidemic to spread I imagine.

So, obviously the source of this article delights in pointing out it's own bias, but the quotes are quotes

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanders-faces-pushback-over-call-to-make-coronavirus-vaccine-free

To add something from the other side of the media spectrum over here.  Goes to show the challenge anyone faces in changing the mentality towards Healthcare in the USA - this article basically encapsulates the views of most people I talk to about the NHS - they cannot get their heads around the concept.  In this article, it mentions how everyone with insurance will have the test covered - that still means anyone without insurance is playing a lottery, and once you find out you have it it you will need to pay for treatment, or pay to avoid getting it (depending on your insurance cover and the costs the end up with for the drug/vaccine).

On a more positive note, I've been pleasantly surprised by the way the British Govt has handled it.

Listened to the experts, followed their advice, kept up a consistent message.

I would have expected some stupid grandstanding by Boris by now.

He dis suggest on the political Bear Pit of This Morning one option was just to let it run its course which wasn't the brightest solution, I assume it has been pointed out to him that this approach would affect the Tories disproportionately!

More embarrassingly for anyone who saw Newsnight...

The BBC: ‘save us, save us, you’ll miss us when we’re gone’.

Also the BBC: ‘I know, let’s put Nigel Farage on Newsnight to talk about the Corona Virus’

Although TBF I think it’s good that the BBC has tried to understand the story from the point of view of a parasitic, destructive virus that forces its host to self-isolate from its nearest and dearest at great financial cost. (Taken from Twitter!)

 

It's easy for them to say 'let's just take it on the chin' when they have access to private medical care. (And be at the front of the queue). It smacks of the rich elite coming out with bollocks like 'we're in it together' when talking about austerity and what not.

There's only a certain number of respirators in Britain. What happens if/when these are all used and people need them, regardless of whether or not they have coronovirus,

Thats when the rich get pushed to the front of the queue as you implied.

Although thinking about it,  they wouldn't be in any queue,  they would all have private health insurance.

In all fairness, the UK private healthcare systems is fantatsic for elective surgery, not so great for Emergency Care, given the Doctors need to do their hours at the NHS first.  If what you need is some TLC while getting a cyst removed, a bottle of wine and a decent meal to wash the pain down, private works wonders.  If you need the ICU, I;d pop into the nearest NHS hospital.

Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis - who was at the home game on Friday - has announced that he has the Coronavirus. He met with the squad before the game and also met with loads of fans.

Loads of people panicking on twitter saying call all games off!

God sake

He also owns Olympiacos who are playing Wolves this week and was at the Emirates the other week.

Think it’s inevitable now that we are going to end up with games behind closed doors now which will be shit. Fuck knows what they’ll do about refunds on lost season ticket games and what not.

But there's no restriction on flight travel it seems

(Pinched from some bloke on twitter)
I remember Nottingham Forest being one of the most feared teams of the football league in the 80s.

They have achieved that again in 2020

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1237342436533420034?s=20

Going Dutch? Think the translated dubbing makes it  :pint:

As long as it aint this weekend, just got me train ticket!

Just shows how people panic. I very much doubt if he is the ONLY person to have attended a game since this started to have caught the virus.

Peterborough's chairman, who seems to have a view on most things, has, I believe, suggested season ticket holders only.

I don't care how resilient this virus is, anyone who's been to Boundary Park knows it can't survive there.

Probably be the Salford game knowing our luck, will give them an unfair advantage as they are used to playing in a quiet empty stadium.

People are killing each other on the roads daily. Could be prevented if people took more care. Shame that isn't given the attention that this virus is.
My brother's best mate is currently fighting for his life after a twat in a Porsche caused a pile up last week.

I'd be slightly more concerned as to whether the govt/FA/League will compensate clubs if they are ordered to play behind closed doors. The lost revenue could be the final straw that sends some clubs to the wall, esp in L1 and below where there's a much greater reliance on revenue from ticket sales.

ah shit, not the ciren one?

hope he pulls through mate

Yes mate. Hoping so.

Really sorry and hope he makes it

it's going to happen

Bloody hell mate you quoted yourself thrice!  :pint:

Arriba - hope your brother's mate pulls through :/

Valencia fans making a mockery of the order to have their game played behind closed doors --- by turning up en masse OUTSIDE the stadium anyway.

dont know what your on about! 😉

Pep has said football without fans is pointless. I agree. postpone. cancel euros and extend seasons

Ive had 7 shows cancelled today and am rather worrying about my a 10 date arena tour in April going and leaving me with no work for a month.

The joys of self employment.

American acts are seeing their shows cancelled in mainland Europe and realise that they cant afford to come over and just do the UK (hence why it better if we have strong ties and frictionless travel with the European union, but that fucked)

So the question is, do I need 2 kidneys and will a 48 year old kidney from someone who's worked for 25 years in live music go for enough to see me through this crisis!

Due to only having one working kidney I have on advice from my hospital here in Malaga began self isolating
I hate the human race in general so currently loving it

(https://i.imgur.com/GUC9K1S.jpg)

That's where all the bog roll in my Tesco went to...

South Korea have got a handle on outbreak without shutting cities down by, as far as I can tell, increasing testing and making the names and recent locations of those with the disease publicly available

Man City vs Arsenal postponed this evening. Club statement at 1am.

Some arsenal players met the olympiakos/forest owner the other night.

Just play the stiffs instead, quick enough to do it in the cups

super thickie MP Nadine Dorries has it. one degree of separation from the PM.


BoE drop 0.5% off interest rates as a measure to help

I'm assuming, as per China, once the authorities starting implementing serious containment measures the general public did as they were told.

Should we get to the stage over here of any form of lockdown I fully expect a sizeable proportion of the great British public will blindly ignore the authorities because they know better 

I'm due to fly to Paris for work at the end of the month. As is stands, per my company guidelines, all non critical business travel is to be canceled. Which is fine, as i'm not paying for is myself but i don't get that T+E back so now have to find that money from somewhere when i re-book it.
I can change my flight for a minimal fee but the Hotel was non-refundable.

T+E? Time and effort? Wait, what?

Might want to rephrase that in that current context.  ;)

Sorry. Travel and Expenses

Sorry, you get get your travel and expenses costs back despite company policy stopping you going???

That's horrible.  I know someone well who also works in the events industry and is also self-employed...and in a similar situation.  It may seem dire at the moment, but there will be an end to this.  The Independent was reporting yesterday that the peak could be as little as two weeks away.  Keeping my fingers crossed for you and everyone else similarly affected.

Yes, i booked this trip last year. As soon as i booked and paid, i filed my expense claim. That's how it works. If i have to cancel the trip, its not me who is out of pocket, its my company.

My qualm is that say we have an annual travel budget of £3000 and this trip was £500, we wont get that £500 back in the budget.

Apologies I didn't word my post very well.

So you have been paid for the trip that isn't happening but will need to fund a subsequent visit out of your own pocket despite the company making you cancel the initial one, or is it just an interbnal company funding/budget issue (which I assume they will have to address anyway?)?

At my work, preparations in earnest for the majority of non essential staff to work from home have begun.

Ahh gotcha, no, i wont need to fund out of my own pocket, i'd tell them where to go if they asked. Im sure there will be some form of budget adjustments at some point.

As we seem to be providing updates on our work situation;

On our project we have been split into 2 teams. (I'm in team A). Team A has to work from home for 2 weeks, and then 2 weeks in the office and then at home for 2 weeks etc. Team B has to work in office for 2 weeks and then 2 weeks at home and then office for 2 weeks etc.

I was sick with manflu last week so i've been WFH a week and a half. Its been good on the whole but it does make you miss the daily commute and office days.

Same.

All our American offices are already 'closed' so only a matter of time.

My work want to prepare for this, but not a chance they could get it all set up in time, so if we have to stay away from work, i think i'll just be doing whatever i want (they may amaze me and come up with something but that would be a big surprise)

Managed to get on a train at Bristol Parkway this morning.
Jammed in like sardines until Cheltenham.
I'm guessing that Coronal Virus is a new local strain of Covid 19.

Other than that the service and also Birmingham New Street seemed less busy compared with making the same journey a couple of weeks ago.

With regard to the football in particular, hope it doesn't come to empty stadiums or postponements.
Looks like some scope for the EFL season to extend into May if required.
Imagine the season being declared as void. Just our luck eh.

I think schools will be shutting so to reduce the risk of spreading.

A lot of headteachers are planning this.

My work are being vigilant. They were preparing at the end of january for us to work from home.

They are effectively going to quarantine the entire office for a minimum of two weeks, but are preparing for a full month of working from home, possibly more.

Suits me as most of my work is fairly automated so I will get more time to play games and watch series haha.

I work at home anyway, so it won't make much of a difference for me. As long as my work-flow is not interrupted and I don't see why it would be *touches wood*

The latest office advice I am hearing is that you should only now use your own pen. Take your own pen with you everywhere. Do not under any circumstances use someone else's pen.

Office Pen Stealers, you know who you are, your revolution is over. You lost. Get over it.

Impossible to work from home at my place of work and even if most of the UK was in shut down we would still have work to do...so not sure what Royal Mail’s contingency plan would be...

Robots and drones?

Knowing RM, roll the ill and dead into the gutter and bring in new people on half the wage. Right Unionists?

I dunno, I can only speak for Swindon Mail Centre but there is plenty ill and dead currently employeed anyway...

Conference on Coronavirus cancelled due to, erm, Coronavirus

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-conference-new-york-cancelled-council-foreign-relations-business-a9393371.html

40 patients in GWH awaiting test results...

In some ways it's refreshing that a mere microbe can put G8 countries into lockdown.

Maybe a stark reminder that humankind is not above nature after all.

Meanwhile in the real world, a good time for a dabble in the stock market for those with the wherewithal.

trying to source anti-bac for the business is painful to say the least but with the whole of the country trying to buy it's understandable.

Every supplier seems to be having delivery at the end of the month. Be interesting to fast forward that far and see whether it will be even needed.

In 2 weeks they are expecting the peak and I am expecting a huge hit of trade just in time for half term :no:

I don't think its over dramatic to be worried about how long this will go on for seeing as it has barely started.

The WHO have now declared a pandemic.

I had no idea Pete Townshend knew so much about this stuff.

Just do what everyone up here is apparently doing and nick if from A&E .

His specialist 'research' lies elsewhere.

We had our first case confirmed at work today, we are also all supposed to log in at 8pm this evening to see if our vpn can deal with 20,000 people working from home

I've been talking with BT and Virgin account managers today. All those expecting to work from home might not be doing much. The residential broadband infrastructure is already struggling peak work hours. If you get logged in. leave it logged in would be my advice.

  It is what will get us. Not a nuke. The tundra and the poles are thawing and there are bacteria alive that we have no resistance to. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a bat's head, but something that thawed out that started this off.

Dr. Jonathon Quick reveals on Ch4 News that JHU (John Hopkins Uni.) produced results from a "Pandemic Preparedness" study six months ago. The study showed that the average preparedness was around 44 out of a possible 100.

I think it was Trump who used this data to say that the USA was the most prepared. Indeed the report does put them top with 83.5 (UK was 2nd) but as we know, this will mean nothing if you don't action your preparedness. Trump seems to think that being prepared is enough...

JHU GHSI Report - https://www.ghsindex.org/

JHU Article - https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/03/coronavirus-covid-19-experts-webcast/

and that's just the Goans

I hope your not on the Biff Byford solo tour in April :tumbleweed:

No.  I have just seen some machinehead shows cancelling.  Im supposed to be doing a couple in June.  Dont know if they've gone yet.

the list is on here

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kerrang.com/amp/machine-head-cancel-uk-europe-tour-because-of-the-coronavirus

Mrs does the shopping online Wednesday for Thursday delivery.
Due to the stockpiling twats no slots till sunday.
 :crash:
Worse than xmas apparently.

Will actually have to go shopping now  :suicide:

Lad is a genius. I would say the same as his dad.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-51843128

Popped into my local Tesco earlier today, almost no veg, no toilet rolls, paracetamol, disinfectant, etc etc etc

Media has stirred this up

Yup. MSM in sensationalist shocker  ::)

In another note all this bullshits regarding  "no handshakes" in football/sports matches at the beginning, yet at the end of matches...what are players doing? You guessed it...  :poofs:

NBA season suspended till further notice

Trump bans all incoming flights from europe for 30 days, apart from bizarrelly, the UK

Football season set to be played behind closed doors

All not to be sneezed at.

Tom hanks has got it.

travolta is being tested. He's got chills, and they're multiplying...

(one of those is true)

Every football game in England will reportedly be held behind closed doors
No games are to be shown in pubs and will be streamed live to ticket holders
Government plans to combat coronavirus spread could be unveiled on Thursday
A Cobra meeting is expected to move the official response to the 'delay' phase
This will result in a crisis plan being unveiled for football, according to The Times

Football can’t survive in the lower leagues. This won’t work.

The problem is, what's the alternative?
A delayed season still kills cashflow, and we have a squillion players OOC on June 30th.

Lower leagues needs financial help too in such circumstances. That much is obvious. But it extends down to non-leeague and out to loads of business.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

So China is basically the Liverpool of corona. I’m likening spain where I am to wolves. Diamond princess is Sheffield United ,totally unexpected to be up there.
Sadly the UK is Norwich

Klopp being Klopp. :soapy tit wank:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1237832372491558913

It’s tough because no one knows how long this would last. Postponement would hurt but at least there is a chance on income down the line. Closed doors offers nothing. If they are stopping it being shown in pubs etc what is the point of playing. Would it still be on the radio?

Play games behind closed doors, stream footage on iFollow as usual and give access to those who have existing match tickets (inc season tickets), but people can also choose to "pay on the day" as currently. There would still be substantial loss of revenue which would need the govt to step in. Or maybe solidarity payments from the PL who don't rely on gate money? Or a bit of both?

I think season ticket holders should be willing to forfeit the remaining games as well. I know that I would be willing, but there'd still be many others demanding refunds (potentially helping to put their club on the brink).

There are clubs without ifollow isn’t there? There’s no right or wrong for this but it’s a complete mess that’s going to happen.

No it's an EFL deal, applies to the whole league.

Absolutely, but if games are streamed on iFollow and made available to ST holders that way, you'd have to be a special kind of twat to still ask for a refund. So there will be several doing just that .....

Therein lyeth the problem.

That's not an alternative to playing behind closed doors :)

Was thinking about this earlier. I'm fine with that if I get iplayer to home games. As a sweetener they could include a home cup game or something next season (if we get one).

TBH I don't think it should need a sweetner, if it isn't obvious we are in unprecidented health crisis and bigger issues exist, then there is no hope for those people..

Well, arguably not, no :)

Has there been any word from the EFL on potential postponements / behind closed doors yet?

Personally I'd postpone the games. The season finishes early this year anyway, pushing it back a month wouldn't do too much harm.

Whilst it’s not really the point of discussion right now but I imagine eventually ‘going to football’ will become obsolete and clubs will just have state of the art in door ‘x’ G pitches with a few cameras set up and everyone who wants to watch will stream it.

Again, I don’t know the specifics but the amount of stadium related overheard you’d loose must outweigh the stadium related income.

What with working till the early hours of a Saturday morning and with a young family i’d be much more inclined (and able) to sit my arse down on the sofa at 14:59 and watch the football than getting up, showered, dressed and physically going.


Probably talking decades from now but think it will happen at some point.

Bought tickets for Walsall (A) yesterday, and as somebody who can't get to many games due to geography it's pretty gutting. Seems like the right call though sadly.

I'll be after a refund for the tickets. Had it been a home game I might have let it slide.

Conversely, a month or two of games behind closed doors could show football to be nothing without the fans, and actually serve to prevent this from happening.

Wouldn't do any good either. This won't be over in a month. Govt are publicly talking about 2-3 months and that seems optimistic.

I asked the question on the fb ‘group’ partly trolling, and the second response i had said that they should get a refund for the games remaining if they are played behind closed doors

Will go down as force majeur wont it

The current advice is that those most at risk of death from the virus are those who are elderly with existing serious underlying problems. That sounds like an excellent description of most Football League clubs.

I get the possibly playing behind closed doors to stop the spread but there's a million ppl a day using the tube apart from other public transport. Italy has stopped all movements bar work and family emergencies. Bit pointless stopping attending football to allow everything else to continue.

Full disclosure, I work at GWH.

This morning all non-clinical staff have been asked if they are prepared to help in a clinical capacity in the event of an outbreak.

We are talking about behind closed doors, whilst Italy is in shut down this has been our response.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES5vK6TWsAAaca-?format=jpg&name=large)

Mental

Heard rumblings they are preparing for the underground to be shut down.

I'd say he's a little shit bandit

Future Town End on the right?  :sherlock:

Speaking to a colleague who lives in Hemel Hempstead yesterday, they have a fair few cases locally but as probably 80 odd% of the working population cram onto a train in and out of London everyday its inevitable, same for anywhere in the commuter belt. Add to that I know any number of people based up here who are up and down to London weekly without a complete lock down spread is just an inevitability. There are 26 trains a day from Lancaster to London, each holding c.500 people, no way you can reasonably manage that.

La Liga suspended.

For two matches, so far. And Real Madrid players in quarantine after one of their basketball team tested positive for the virus

I wonder how long the 'it's all a load of shit' brigade are going to dig in for.

Not directed at anybody here.

I agree that measures need to take place on a country wide level to prevent the virus spreading, so large events of any kinds being canceled etc
From a personal/individual level, i have no intention of changing any of my daily habits, just carrying on as normal.

 When I was a kid there was a building on the Marlborough Road out near Ogbourne, which intrigued me as it seemed in the middle of nowhere... it got knocked down however in the mid 60's.  It was the Isolation Hospital, where people with infectious diseases were treated.  

 I guess it wasn't the only one in the country, but by the mid 60's the contagious diseases had largely been eradicated.... like the Stratton Workhouse it was somewhere I thought I'd like to avoid ending up in.

 Perhaps Johnson's pledge of 350 mill a week for the NHS and 40 new hospitals could be spent on a retro Isolation Hospital campaign.

Cobra discussing school closures today.

McLaren pull out of F1 Australian GP after member of team confirmed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51849163

Surely its got to be pulled or made non-championship race now.

Ireland shuts all schools and colleges

Ireland have closed their schools, colleges and childcare facilites until the 29th... we'll surely be following suit.

McLaren have pulled out of the Aussie GP as a team member has tested positive for it, the event should never have gone ahead anyway. They even had a fully open public day yesterday, so fucking dumb.


This country's repsonse has been shocking so far, seeming pretty blase about the whole thing...

I suspect more are working from home round here as noticed net speed has dropped a bit.

Thought the argument against that was that with increasing numbers of families with both parents working, emergency childcare if they shut schools is likely to fall on grandparents who are most at risk. Just shows how complex the whole thing is, no easy answers, downsides to every proposed panacea

UEFA suspending Europa and Champions League, apparently.

... and Trump got rid of a load of CDC people recently - the very people that know about this stuff and will be aware of 'unexpected' consequences that others would not.

If anything it could be more contained by having kids in schools. no way is everyone just going to sit at home.

Pfft! If there's one thing we've learned from the 2016 referendum over here and Trump's 2016 victory over there it's that we don't need "experts". Trump will just be able to build a big wall to keep coronavirus out, any extra bits he can just ask his good friend Farage about now the BBC have apparently appointed him as their goto guy for coronavirus advice.

Ha ha Liverpool will be gutted :)

Shouldn't every country just stop all people leaving and entering until this virus is under control?
It's been spread by people travelling so just stop that. Am I missing something here or what?

Global recession? Although that seems inevitable now anyway

They will shut down just to reduce the risk.

If this does happen, internet usage will go through the roof. People won't be able to work from home because of contention.

The NHS, already crumbling, is going to really struggle. There are face masks, but not all staff can use them and they don't fit all staff. Staff have to have some vigorous tests on the equipment before use. We are not equipped enough.

Fuck Liverpool.  What about STFC?

Cobra meeting expected outcome: status expected to move from "containment" to "delay". If situation worsens, it may be escalated to "faffing" and once the bodies are piling up in the streets, we could possibly escalate still further to "fiddling while Rome burns"

It's too late for that now - the rate of spread in Communities is where it is now coming from - it seems, from reports, like it's not carrying much out in the open, but once you get confined locations with a carrier, it seems to spread like wildfire.  There was a lawyer in NYC who appears to have given the virus to at least 50 direct contacts, and a conference where over 70 attendees have contracted it, not to mention the nursing home that now has a lot of spare beds in Washington State.

It's now time to move to protect people who would likely get very sick and avoid a stampede at the Hospitals.  You can't stop it, but you can slow it's progress to those who would need hospital care.  You should probably be taking over large buildings as well, to act as field hospitals.  I know people will say it's over reacting, but the reality is that Hospitals do not carry large over capacity, so it doesn't actually take much to overwhelm them on top of every day needs to be in one.  While a number of viruses have spread in the past without huge death tolls, there is often a hidden impact of increased mortality from other causes at the same time due to that strain.

Well, that's good timing considering the circumst...

Oh!

Who say's the NHS is crumbling ?.  My wife is a nurse and they have responded very positively. Yes they are under massive pressure and hopefully the govenment will support the NHS.

I wonder is football will be suspended in this country ?

Been suspended all season in bournemouth

My wife is also a nurse. They are all underpaid, overworked. Patients in hallways etc. It is overstretched. All staff have responded positively, but they will struggle. They need the help. A&E have 13 bank shifts available just for saturday. It's crazy.

I think he was talking over the last decade rather than the immediate response to coronavirus. The Italian media were using horrified stories of patients being treated in corridors to demonstrate how bad the crisis had got there - that's been normal here for years. Don't underestimate the impact of years of underfunding

I know people are going to get all "timmy tantrum" with me and while I agree, the most vulnerable (elderly/those with underlying conditions) should be our priority in keeping safe. Yet isn't it just common sense that we do all the time during Flu/bug season? "Oh I won't go and see your Nanna who has Emphysema as I've got a cough myself. Don't want to risk it." We do it all the time. This is no different in that respect.

Yet here is the kicker. Yes I'm aware this is a highly contagious pathogen but it is only deadly mostly to those most vulnerable, like most things. We may contract it. Likely a lot of us have had a cold/sniffle/man flu/full blown flu/the shits etc. Yes we've contracted something and our body has dealt with it over the course of a couple to few weeks. Same again, if I say "Oh I've had the shits the last few days John, don't get too close." the  response is likely "Ffs mate, I'll keep my distance. I don't want that!"

But here we are, closing down society, showing the very midst of what George Orwell wrote about fictionally and Professor Jared Diamond wrote about roughly 20 years ago, regarding societal collapse. No doubt others have too. Society being vulnerable to falling, when we remove just a few links in the chain of a modern (westernised) society. I'm not for one minute saying Covid-19 is a load of shit (other bacteria are available) but we have been 'happy' to allow Influenza to continually wreak havoc for years upon years. My point is, we actually have vaccines (that have to be adapted from season to season) for Influenza and yet it still kills a fuck ton of people annually. Already in USA alone, Flu has killed 16k+ people since December to Feb.

Now again, I'm not saying one dick is bigger than the other. I agree with some of the steps government have taken and largely done so in a controlled manner. I'm quite surprised. I expected BoJo to have come out all Trumponian claiming we are the 2nd best most prepared country and that alone will stop a virus from spreading. Less on Farage the better.

I'm looking at this from a media viewpoint. The way the MSM are reporting pretty much every single "positive case" for Covid-19 here, as if every one of those people are going to die. If the media reported nearly every positive Flu case, well they couldn't, there are so many. Even if the media tried to report all Flu deaths, the news would just be full of it. They'd have to report c200 Flu deaths per day in the USA (just for December to Feb).

So my conclusion is, with Flu also being highly contagious yet somewhat controlled by a vaccine; how come the world has been seemingly happy to go about their lives quite normally, while 100s of thousands of people die from flu every year? Happy to get on public transport, go to packed public events, fill shopping malls every weekend with H1N1 spores flying around like some kind of erratic phlegm aids. Is it social conditioning? Is this yet another way of controlling the masses with FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt), via media?

The human species by design is very "pack" oriented and largely prefers to be led or told what to do (there are exceptions). Even if that leader isn't so great. Even if those that lead don't even tell the truth or feed us obscure information (a boss at work for e.g), We have our doubts from time to time but we don't want to been seen as irrational or difficult. Mostly for fear of looking stupid or having a different viewpoint within the popular societal consensus. So as long as we are being told what to do, when to be there, etc. We, for the most part are fine with being led. Maybe Orwell was on to something and possibly Pfr Diamond too.

Feel free to come and pick apart the bits that don't sit right with you or you disagree with. Likewise feel free to provoke thought and discuss, as we do. On a totally unrelated part -i'm still impressed that Grospot Nob went so long without noticing such a change. Good work, even if immature :)

We know how bad Flu is

We don’t know how bad Coronavirus could be or, more importantly, know for sure how it’s spread

That’s it isn’t it??

Edit, after reading that missive properly. You answered it yourself. We know how flu works. There’s a vaccine for flu to allow vulnerable people to be treated ahead of time, minimising the impact. Hence, little concern

We don’t know how coronavirus works. We don’t have a vaccine for it, so the only way to minimise the impact on vulnerable people is to take these measures to stop the virus from spreading too far. It’s really not rocket science

Once a vaccine is developed and we have a better understanding of the disease, then instead of having a cold and flu season, we’ll have a cold flu and coronavirus season, and id imagine things will be back to the ‘normal’ you describe. But we’re not there yet are we

Collymore suggesting that it’s going to be announced tomorrow that the rest of the season will be played behind closed doors with season ticket holders able to stream games.

Until some players get sick and teams withdraw. This season will be suspended at some point. Fuck knows what that'll mean for promotion and relegation but I bet we get fucked over.

PV will need to start charging for his match text commentaries.  ;)

Maybe a wrongful comparison but I don't remember total shutdown during the Sars outbreak, which if I do remember was a far more serious virus.

Isnt that what he said at 11pm last night

But also more likely to cause significant symptoms, and less contagious. Meaning it was a lot easier to contain.

It's partly that coronavirus is so mild in so many cases that makes it so dangerous, because it means a lot of people will be passing it on unawares. Coronavirus will end up killing A LOT more people than Sars as it is and, the more infections there are, the higher the risk of a mutation.

It already has mutated once, bit thankfully not into something more deadly.

Fucking hell:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/

Anyone who thought they'd got rid of the eugenicists in Downing St when that weirdo kid got fired might want to think again. "Herd immunity" = let the weak die, the survivors will be stronger for it.

Probably I just saw some journo retweet it. As Johnson is about to announce we are entering the ‘delay’ phase I don’t think it’s too wide of the mark. I don’t think you’ll be watching us play at Oldham on Saturday.

SARS was 3x more deadley but much better contained. This is from a couple of days ago

           Year        Cases      Deaths      Mort     Countries
Ebola      1976,      33577,    13562,      40.4,     9
Nipah      1998,         513,        398,      77.6,     2
SARS      2002,       8096,        774,       9.6,      29
MERS      2012,       2494,        858,      34.4,     28   
COVID-19 2020,  111365,      3892,        3.5      102

Did I read or hear somewhere that eventually COVID-19 will just become another variety of seasonal flu and will be a constant ‘companion’ every year?

Its quite a good article as to why though. Essentially 'its going to happen anyway' is the key premise-  so lets try and control its rate of spread .

And with a likely spread through Africa and Americas that it will be around for a while - so immunity is going to be the only way given no vaccine is going to be available for quite a while.

It looks possible, but we'll have COVID jabs eventually. Hopefully.

We haven't learned how to contain from that experience?

BoJo speaking.

He's actually come across OK.

Basics are as you were *for now*
Sports OK *for now* - but the issue is it puts strain on resources (emergency services)
People should self isolate with persistent cough/fever
In future the whole family will need to self isolate if 1 gets syptoms.
No schools overseas trips.
No cruises for elderly (advice)

Its going to get worse, and extra measures may need to be put in place as we go towards the peak.

I take it as simply being of different characteristics to SARS.

Medical bod  - we are 4 week behind Italy and some other Euro countries. Peak yet to come.

Its likely we have between 5-10K infected right now but only 500 confirmed. Steep curve yet to come. We need to protect people during the pleak period.

Now trying to delay peak and bring the peak down

"Medical bod" makes the fairly reasonable point that in order to make closing schools worth it you'd have to do it for 3-4 months and good luck keeping children isolated for that period of time.

yeah.

The whole thing seems to have made very good points. Assuming they are right.

Yep. As with many things, it's quite a lot more complicated than just "lock everyone inside for a week and jobs a good 'un"

Medical bod shows some political naivety by suggesting that their top planning modelling rate is 80% infections, then says that's speculative, unlikely etc. and not the main point.

Bet that's every paper's headline tomorrow, unfortunately.

Medical Bod looks worrying like Failing Grayling!

Africa appears to be relatively spared for now, although I supposed the real figures could be far higher than reported. Something like this could be devastating there.

They've been saying 40-70% for a while, as the rate of infection.  The known cases double after something like 5 days, and what we are starting to see is that in certain conditions is spreads with a very high rate of infection from person to person.

We have two early case studies to use - China & Italy.  One of them appears to have stunted the spread by locking everyone up (still can;t be certain) and the other is being crippled by throwing arms up in the air at the nasty Coronavirus.

Didn’t see the press conference, but credit where it’s due the government seem to be acting sensibly in handling all of this.

I would say the reason it hasn't so much is temperature related. It doesn't like anything too warm an also by accounts doesn't like extreme cold either. Loves that kind of temperate fridgy temp of around 6 to 12 celsius.

More likely travel.

There is a chance the virus doesn't carry as well in Hot and Humid air, but that won't kill it off.

The issue with this strain appears to be the longevity on surfaces.

the BBC r5 expert suggested that it only lives 1 day on cardboard, much less on other surfaces.

Also pointed out that living that long doesn't mean at a threshold that can be infectious

All EFL games ON this weekend with no restrictions

Think it was 2 days + on steel and plastic though.  4 hours on Copper.

I was going to mention travel as of course, a lot of African countries don't have the disposable to travel as often. So factor in. The temperature thing is important though. A weakened pathogen (and as I'm aware this doesn't travel too far as an airborne pathogen; only up to 7ft/2m). The longevity on surfaces is a big debate. In controlled refrigerated conditions it's been claimed to "survive" for upto 9 days, yet in reality how many homes or locations are at a constant controlled temp of say 6c? But that data doesn't say on what surface, how porous or non porous etc. I believe that data is a scenario that would never bee seen in regular day to day life (unless you work in a fridge for 9 days without leaving?!). So then it depends on the surface. Most reports say several hours to 3days. But again all this depends on temp/humidity/surface etc.

Warmer weather would weaken it, no doubt. It's essentially a version of Flu, just without the vaccine (yet) so it will dissipate as warmer weather ensues. I'm sure you're measured and intelligent enough Rob to realise that a pathogen "surviving" doesn't necessarily mean it maintains the same level of that, if it has been weakened.

It's a dangerous buggar but I still believe this will be all but gone by around end of May/early June. That's only my opinion though.

@rob so it does, he didn't mention that

I have no knowledge on what may happen in warmer months that would add anything to the discussion.  What seems very likely though is that the Western world will struggle to contain this in the way China were eventually able to.  So, even if it does dissipate in the summer, at the current rate of infection, that could still be a massive impact in countries like the USA (which still isn't really testing anyone, let alone preventing the spread - although private business & organisations appear spooked enough to do stuff without being told now).

https://youtu.be/nSXIetP5iak

Herd immunity is not a callous "let the weak die" concept.  It protects the weak.

I may be wrong but if you can say that then I very much doubt that you have had to watch a daughter grow up who is unable to take various vaccines, who is exponentially more vulnerable to the diseases they protect against and is entirely dependent on herd immunity to protect her from them.

As soon as I posted that I thought I was rather shitty.  Sorry, touched a nerve.

Mikel Arteta has it now. Full Arsenal squad in quarantine

that's the behind closed doors plan out the window.

Emergency Premier League meeting tomorrow now.

That’ll be saturday off then

Oh for sure a global economic domino effect is happening now. I do feel that world powers are still talking with their fiscal heads on as opposed to their health heads. I don't doubt they have their opinions on potential deaths etc. but feel more that they are more concerned on economic effects.

All it really shows is how weak a westernised world is in terms of the material elements and make up of our society. This results in the parts of our species panic buying anything and acting irrationally. That is in part at the hands of MSM to blame. On the plus, it also shows that we do have the frameworks in place to recover from catastrophe. I still would personally question if we had to deal with something much more dangerous (what that is/could be, I'm not certain at this moment in time), whether we should be capable of recovering.

It's easy to criticise governments of course and in the case of a pandemic I think we all have to put our allegiances aside and work together (I'm talking parliament here). Currently I think the UK government are doing as much as they need to, under guidance from those better informed. I don't know enough about the US Gov to know if (again allegiances aside) they are doing similar. News stories tell us one thing over here but that may be very different to the actuality. Much like the picture in Italy. Responses at present seem to be very stereotypical of said nations. UK Gov- Keep calm and carry on. Italy Gov - Passionately erratic...and so on.

Will probably have the ridiculous scenario (because two separate entities) where the Premier League call off their matches and the EFL ones go ahead. That would just be laughable but I won't be shocked if that were to arise.

I can see it happening for now. If no EFL players or management are affected carry on. before Arteta they were prepared to let it roll. It will only take one case though to make it all stop. Even behind closed doors won’t stop unless players and management effectively self isolate together between games with no family contact.

F1 finally officially off.  talk about last minute,

I swear I heard on Ch4 News that it was cancelled and that was around 7.30pm. Still 7 or 11 makes little odds to people who travelled to Straya. Not a cheap spectator sport.

Think Hamilton spoke a lot of sense saying I don't get why we are even here, considering the circumstances. Of course, his team pulled out beforehand. Something like F1 at least is a little easier to schedule even if an inconvenience. They can afford to put a race into one of the free weeks in the calendar or extend/stagger their season if necessary.

Not correct with this one

"However, she said having sports events played behind closed doors could be counterproductive as it might instead lead people to gathering in pubs "in the warmth, where viruses love it"."

Who are you quoting here? Also, there's a difference to a load of infected people meeting "in the warmth" passing it around. Allowing it to gestate. To a naturally higher temperature caused by a geographical location. Somewhere where it is eternally late spring/early Summer. The virus won't be strong enough to likely show few symptoms.

This isn't some totally unbeknown bug. It has a lot of similarities to Flu and of course other Coronavirae(uses??). It just happens that they don't have a vaccine for it. Yet.

(https://scontent.flhr4-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89809687_3107339159284350_3594064552104296448_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=nbUEKDhRFcwAX_Brv_i&_nc_ht=scontent.flhr4-2.fna&oh=54657289dbfbc0733ab061cd86f83981&oe=5E8F951F)

The plural is viruses
https://www.grammar-monster.com/plurals/plural_of_virus.htm

Overnight 2 friends have been diagnosed with this down here in Somerset/Dorset, I haven't seen them for a few week so am probably safe, only a few friends in common and I have not been in contact with them either for a few weeks.

Not overly concerned but I am on the "at risk" list, its wierd going from not concerned at all to being mildly concerned about my own health in a matter of a few hours.

The green "all is fine" warning bulb has been switched onto a slightly flickering amber bulb now for me!

Its been a tough 24 hours for The Mail.

Yesterday
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES-IT7WXsAEaG1N?format=jpg&name=large)

Today
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES-IUxeWAAAEDRe?format=jpg&name=900x900)

We apparently have it 'in the village', much as yourself I am on the vulnerable list, but actually looking online from the normal expert organisations there seems to be no evidence at the moment that it interacts with my condition, of greater concern is my missus who has asthma albeit not chronic so fingers crossed.

Yeah as far as I know its not hit Chard yet my friends live in Sherborne and Yeovil so 20+ miles away so I see them rarely but I have obviously the cancer treatment but also around 1/3 of each lung missing from the previous blood clots and I have COPD and Bronchiectasis too.

Concerning.

Stay safe mate.

I'm now working from home for the forseeable future as my employers have started their plan of action.

Until 3 or 4 years ago you used to have to put a pretty watertight business case to work from home approval and now? Now it's the saviour!

Thanks mate, going to not risk it too much now, shit got a bit more real for me all of a sudden.

Look after yourself fella!

if nothing else who is going to help me with my IT issues!  ;)

I'm working from home as work wants to test VPN capacity.

but they don't want us taking monitors and docking stations off site.

try coding and testing with 3 VMs on a 15 inch laptop .... grr

Short of playing Euro Truck Simulator 2 all day, I'm gonna find it kind of difficult to work from home... :hmmm: coming down with a cold as well, which is looooovely.

a cold....


isolate isolate isolate

Which is fine. When workers and kids are off then contention on lines is going to be absolutely manic.

yeah, agreed. but you have to know your own systems will cope first..

if we are government ordered to lockdown then there's not much that can be done to control network capacity

We have the same issue. We are being proactive as the leadership cannot make decisions. We have RDP but are uploading to sharepoint in preparation.

We were planning on doing this anyway in the summer so it's all good.

Its way outside my area of knowledge and expertise but we do seem to be doing things rather differently (rightly or wrongly!)

(https://scontent.flhr4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89872094_2594100127496042_6187717069329399808_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=SH_1XO0RwNcAX-0FKOf&_nc_ht=scontent.flhr4-1.fna&oh=2deb360ea9757f8af740635393a27454&oe=5E8F850C)

Any Network engineers on here? Cisco are giving out licenses for Umbrella, AnyConnect and Webex and Microsoft Teams is currently free too.

"BREAKING: Premier League and EFL look set to announce both will be suspended until at least Apr 4th, when situation will be reviewed. Hearing EFL board agreed on this unanimously. Premier League meeting happening in 10 mins when clubs will be urged to follow suit"

My other half is presently trying to get our (entirely normal) weekly online shop finalised, whilst she has got a slot for tomorrow morning (booked on Tuesday and it was the earliest slot available) it now transpires they have not got a large percentage of the stuff we would normally order.

People need to calm the fuck down, its getting to the stage that deaths are going to be self inflected in this country!

Confirmed

I wonder how much damage Cheltenham being held will have. For here and Ireland in particular. All about the £££ though it would seem

I gave up trying to do an online shop as they had bugger all.
Went to lidl instead.
No soap, cleaning fluid, bog rolls, pasta in there.

But I bet you could get a welder, a cycling jacket and some German sausage!

Fuck knows what RM will do

I guess shut the main centres and not pay us?!

Haha. Aquarium goods yesterday. I bought a retro games console that doesn't work too 😂

God knows mate, they can't organise a piss up in a brewery at the best of times, that cunt Rico will probably use it to buy a fuck ton more shares...

Sniffles really isn't what they're looking at when they ask folks to self isolate, right?  :hmmm: ???

Any COD MW players on here? Looks like that's all i'll be doing this weekend. +

Xbox? *waves*

yup, have you tried Warzone yet, plenty of hours to kill on it :guns:

I do on the PS4

No, I don’t know either. Doubt they do either.

I mean we can’t work from home and it’s really a question of whether we’ll get paid if we are forced to not attend work.

I mean I’d have to dip into my savings and could take the hit but no everyone will be in that position.

The A-team could have taken on an army with that!

Thats fine, we can cross play.

stfcchubbs or stfc_chubbs i never know which one to give out.

Warzone if great, not managed a win yet.

stfcchubbs or stfc_chubbs i never know which one to give out.

I can never win in the Gulag :)

Yeah, its annoying that it.

I dont have many friends online so i have to resort to playing with randoms who don't communicate and just do their own thing.

Add me. Sippo04. Will be on tonight from 8ish.

Own up. Who’s done a bit of stockpiling?

Exact opposite haven't been shopping in 3 weeks. Down to last 2 bog rolls.

I'm waiting for rationing to be introduced.... I was born into 50's rationing, and aside from the 70's petrol rationing haven't known any since.

Fuck stockpiling, I’m looking forward to some looting.

There's some video on social media of looters in Australia.

A lot of people are going to see that and think: "Fuck me, I hadn't thought of that. Can't wait"

Have the looters from the 2011 riots been released yet?

Gig tonight for me, & seaside tomorrow. What happened to the "and carry on" bit? Maybe you could stay at home & fill in a mental wellbeing survey.

Looking forward to actually being able to get a table in Soho tonight.

Going to help celebrate 'Holi' at an Indian restaurant tonight at the Power Station. I wonder if restaurants and bars will be quieter?

Or like in Italy and shut totally!

that would be no use at all :) Surely Uber Eats and Deliveroo could make a killing here? Their drivers are all covered and protected and with empty roads should be able to deliver the food when hot?

On the plus side of all this, once all passed, that holidays to Italy should be quite cheap to boost the economy?

we got a cheap flight to HK just after SARS, so yeah, the airlines will need the revenue big time

You have me but you don't communicate to me :D

I am on as BernimanUK if anyone to add..  see you all in the warzone :)

I never see you online. 

I havent booked flights to Portugal yet for this reason

What are the options:

1.  leave tables as they are with promotion and relegation determined on incomplete position (unfair on teams with games in hand)
2.  apply points average to unplayed games to determine table (helps teams with games in hand)
3.  deem remaining games all 0-0 (helps teams with games in hand, unsuccessful ones more than successful ones)
4.  abandon the season with no promotion or relegation (not easy in premier league with CL and Europa or for choosing who does play in EFL Cup early rounds)
5.  attempt to play the games as normal asap but perhaps before June 30 (not much time for players or clubs to plan ahead)
6.  attempt to play games behind closed doors (with I Player pay per view)
7.  too many games and not enough time? Then have some sort of play off based on the present table where issues at stake  (eg  Wycombe are out of the Lg 1 play offs, on goal difference only, but have a game in hand)
8.  play play offs
9.  team finishing top of play off places awarded promotion or drawing of lots.

July would be litigation time (with penalties to decide if hearings not concluded ;) )

...or use all the results from the corresponding fixtures to calculate the remaining results....

Modern day version of the "pools panel"!

...or simulate all the games on FIFA 20.

Make them full 90 minute matches and put them on iFollow

Maybe those with games in hand should be allowed to play them. Albeit behind closed doors if necessary.

We should simply recognise the realities of modern football and arrange the teams in each league in order of wealth.

Or in order of the complexity of the closest roundabout?

I don't see how anybody could disagree with that to be fair.

Expect a big jump in London tomorrow/Sunday on the figures. Been bat shit crazy today in the world of Local government. If there isn't a big jump, there is some serious lying/misinformation/breakdown in reporting going on.

Genius.  Problem solved.

Franchise will be delighted

Despite there being zero cases of Coronavirus here on the island, as from tomorrow all cafes and restaurants will close. As per Italy only pharmacies and food stores will be open.

Yikes!

I suspect the official figures are nonsense, we are in the sticks here yet there is a case in our village and in both of the neighbouring villages.

London Marathon gone, along with the Giro

ditto here in our village (Shere, pop. 1,000 or so) where the surgery closed this pm.

What a prick.

Wales v Scotland egg chasers off tomorrow too.  There's going to be f.a. sport on tv as we hunker down >:(

Set the garden hose to power jet mode and you’re sorted.

In the meantime...

The Thai health minister is warning Thais to keep away from farangs (westerners) because they don't wear masks, they never wash, and they don't change their clothes. No, I am not exaggerating.

He is also blaming coronavirus cases in Thailand on farangs bringing it into Thailand from their countries. Somehow ignoring the plain fact that it originated in China.

Has the mob with burning torches been out yet?

1. We don't

2. Brits abroad

3. See 2 plus people on those Thai tourist trails do look scruffy nearer the end (except the buff ones in their vests)

I'm with the Thai health minister on all of this (China oversight aside) :toocool:

To be fair, it does apply to rather a lot of our kinsmen. Some of them are a fucking mess.

It does amuse me when some people I meet in pubs complain that Brits are so often depicted as pissheads.

So here in spain we are now in a state of emergency. However we can still buy toilet rolls and sanitizer . I just don’t get it????

I thought that was just self-imposed by the autonomous region of Catalonia putting themselves in lockdown? Yet the rest of Spain is very much on a par with the UK - No?

National state of emergency, worst hit is actually Madrid. Over 2000 cases there. Now army on the street, all bars restaurants etc shut in the capital too.

Catalan, rioja, Galicia, Madrid, and parts of Leon and the basque region in lockdown. Malaga province is probably next followed by the rest of Andalucia.

Easter parades look like they may be cancelled which is a fucking huge deal here.

I see a lot of countries are closing their borders, wonder if the UK will follow suit?

Thought that was what Brexit was all about.....

The British medical/scientific community seem to have done their best to avoid simply following the herd and have come up with their conclusions (right or wrong) based on their interpretation of the facts.

In the end, however, everyone buckles under the pressure.  I fear that there is no end to the kneejerk overreaction from here.

As usual, ill-informed social media knows best.

And the British constabulary appears to have decided that the Accuri case should not be investigated...

Just got off the phone with my mum who lives in Portugal.

If you are found to be out whilst suppose to be self isolating it is punishable by 5 years in prison.

Limiting numbers in shops, restaurants etc, all parades cancelled

Anyone know how Swindon's finances will operate with no games? Will insurance cover player wages?

Just checked my wife's temperature and it's 34.

Does that mean she's dead?

if it's in fahrenheit the quite possibly.

mind you, she has been hanging around with a westerner, she was warned

You'll be arrested if you do..

Fair point. she had it coming

An early halt to the season would have been very much welcome in recent years given the dross served up at STFC, so it is typical something like this occurs when we are on track for our first promotion and possibly title for almost a decade!

I have tried to read up as much as I can and all noises suggest the peak isn’t actually expected until another 10-14 weeks. Making a return to action a long way off. However, the suggestion is very much that the season will not be ‘voided’ - due to the integrity of the competition, legal challenges etc.

By all accounts nothing is being ruled out, including significant re-scheduling to the 20/21 season if this one has to be finished over the summer - what happens with regards to players contracts is anyone’s guess.

One thing for sure is that this will be very messy....and I’m missing the football already!!

Enjoy the first of many non-football Saturday’s TEF’rs  :(

Anyone know what situation swindon supermarkets are like? I take my mum to do her weekly shop on Saturdays and I’m worried he shelves will be bare.

In Asda West Swindon, my wife has just got home saying there is plenty of fresh fruit and veg , cheese , meat, milk etc, but no loo rolls, no pasta, no Iboprufen or paracetomol, few biscuits, and  cereals running low. Also no eggs or flour.

I popped to Asda Orbial at 7am and a lot of the shelves were empty (baked beans, pasta, rice, biscuits, porridge etc) but plenty of bread, milk, cheese, fruit & veg. Asda are looking at shutting their stores at midnight - 6am so that they can restock shelves as there are too many shoppers turning up during the night plus some getting abusive.
Lidl this morning was basically the same as Asda short on certain items but ok with others

Not sure that's true of the medical/scientific *community*, there seems to be significant dissenting voices to the "herd immunity" line the CSO is pushing. It's interesting though that many companies are taking it upon themselves to implement social distancing ahead of govt advice to do so. There doesn't seem to be much trust in the official advice.

Given we’ve got a winter World Cup in 2022, and noise sounds like it’s a couple of months until the worst is over, would the authorities that be consider restructuring next season to start later and get prepared for the enforced winter break in a few years?

This panic buying is fucking ridiculous. There's no need. And eggs for fucks sake. Why are people panic buying eggs?!

Yeah supermarket was full of bedraggled workers today, think they are feeling the pressure big time.

So they can binge on them and give themselves constipation when the bog roll runs out :)

Found this earlier for those looking for some enlightenment on the legal position as to what might happen regarding refunds, player contracts etc

https://www.sportslawbulletin.org/coronavirus-sport-law-frustration-and-force-majeure/

TLDR: Sports lawyers haven't got a fucking clue either

Every day is pancake day.

Full of tossers?

And egg poachers apparently!

And we have lockdown!!!

Hopefully they are panic buying contraceptives as well.

I'm sending the misses out for supplies next week. It's not that I'm panic buying, but every other cunt will be. Kind of like one of those self-fulfilling prophecy jobbies.

I'll be getting food n shit, though. Not bog roll.

The way it's going there won't  be any food to buy

Wife stocked up a bit. Not so much panic buying as panicking about the panic buying, obviously we don’t want to run out of the essentials

...and Calpol, trying to get some bloody calpol...

Same thing.

Yes you're right, I should have said the govt medical advisors, not the whole community.  Not many of the UK critics have resonated with much credibility to me however.  Certainly I'd rather trust Chris Whitty, whose career has been focussed on combating major infectious diseases around the world, rather than the ignorant ramblings of Jeremy fucking Hunt.

Appreciate that a major exception is the WHO woman making the point that we don't know enough yet about Coronavirus to be sure that it will behave like Smallpox, measles etc. re herd immunity.

I think that the company distancing is inevitable.  Combination of human nature and the modern blame culture.  People always feel happier to be seen to be taking action.  And companies tend to get blamed or sued for failure to act but rarely for over-reacting unnecessarily.

My daughter's grounded until it blows over (might be a while I know).

She had a bronchial infection earlier this year and she's had pneumonia in the past. It's not so much coronavirus I'm concerned about, but what if she gets another infection and there are no beds for her?

you can't be too careful there.

What's the intensive care beds situation like in Thailand? 

I listened today to a Uk A&E consultant saying that we have nothing like Italy's capacity here in the UK which didn't exactly sound great.

I don't know to be honest.

They do have decent universal health care, but I very much doubt it can handle a pandemic.

Anyone got a shopping list for potential lockdown? Without this panic buying bollocks, I'm thinking...

Beer
Rum
Pasta
Cheese
Coffee
Half a pig

I did our weekly in Asdas this morning, the level of panic buying is incredible, as well as toilet roll, painkillers, soap and pasta, the shelves were also empty for flour, noodles, rice, tinned tomatoes (and purée), beans and, strangely, bin bags. Fortunately I can live on crisps.

The whole panic buying thing is only going to escalate further. Reckon next week will get interesting to say the least.

Where's Boris by the way? Gone missing like when the country was under water?
I think Trump is a fucking arsehole but at least he's actually doing something about this.

I was there this morning and no biscuits!

So everything is shut except supermarkets and pharmacies. We have been told to stay indoors. Public transport has been cut by 50% and is only allowed to be a third full.
You can go to work if essential but the police and army are patrolling the streets and you are only allowed out if you are going to buy food, medication or to the bank.

Supermarkets will be stocked up as normal and transportation of food and essentials is taking priority

This is initially for 14 days but might be longer


I reckon this is you lot by next weekend

With rain  :)

Everybody home with nowhere to go so you can imagine the hostile atmosphere at the supermarkets marshalled by bouncers at every aisle

Well yes I wasn't referring to Jeremy Hunt. But as you say the WHO seem to be raising a collective eyebrow at the way we're approaching things. John Ashton, former NW regional director of public health has slated the official line, on Question Time and in media interviews since. This evening, over 200 scientists have signed an open letter saying the govt's approach will risk lives (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402). And there's another open letter signed by around 200 experts in the field of behavioural science, questioning the strategy around not declaring stronger measures around social isolation earlier (https://sites.google.com/view/covidopenletter/home).

I don't know who's right - I'm not a virologist or an epidemiologist - I suspect there probably isn't a "right" answer, just several "least worst" options. And rest assured I'm following all the official advice around washing hands etc. But the "herd immunity" strategy is far from proven and there are serious scientific and medical people, including those who *are* qualified to discuss this properly who seem to be very alarmed at the approach the govt is taking.

R.E.M's, It's End of The World (As We Know It). On loop for full effect so the neighbours think you've succumbed to a nihilistic way of life, within the realms of the circumstances.

Just think of all the State Pension money they’ll save with all the old folk they’ll sacrifice.

Would not surprise me at all in the slightest

Surely you don’t expect him to work weekends?

I worked out very roughly that @ 1% fatality rate and being in the main coffin dodgers as some of you have termed the elderly on here, oh and right wing gammons, coupled in with the leftie ones who are collateral damage and not forgetting the medically challenged that the government will save about £5.5b per annum. I’m just waiting for when this blows over for someone to suggest another referendum on rejoining the EUSSR and suggesting the cull of aforementioned could swing the result. Still maybe the pension age may come back to 65.

At 10pm last night the city of Malaga showed their appreciation to the doctors and nurses fighting corona.
Was right across the whole city
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EPMTdFQKrQc

Restores some faith in human nature, after the widespread panic buying by the selfish amongst us.

What a class touch and so refreshing from seeing the British supermarkets being ransacked

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

Just the loneliness will finish some people off if they do this

Government are out of touch on this. Both my parents and my in laws got calls from their Gp's saying to stay in no visitors on Friday until further notice.

I also know they aren't fully reporting fatalities, in London certainly.

I’m not saying the uk isn’t doing enough but....

My mate managed to fly from heavily infected Madrid to Gatwick this morning. 240 people from Madrid just walked into England unchecked. Ridiculous.

Those that are online could always join this forum, you know bit of old fresh meat to ridicule and dismiss as coffin dodgers, gammons and all the shit that flies around on this site directed at that sector of the population. Should add a bit of interest to some on here.

You’re a glass empty sort of person

WTF is a gammon, apart from sunday dinner?

If you have to ask the chances are you are one.

Fuck knows mate but if you’re my age vote conservative and for brexit, you’re a gammon... so.. I do love a nice joint of smoked gammon at Christmas though, roast or boil 😁

As of yet, my flight it Paris on 31st is still on, albeit changed about 20 times. My hotel on the other hand has closed, so i have nowhere to stay.
I think we know how this will end.

We are supposed to be going to Turkey on the 19th of April.
Hmmm

Explained here: Gammon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gammon_(insult))

The phrase took off/went viral a couple of years ago after a journalist used it in an opinion piece.

and there was I thinking Tenerife in August was looking dodgy.

hope your insurance pays out of the worst happens. I've not even checked ours yet..

Is it a term used to label people that keep on spouting political bollocks in unrelated threads like a spoilt child that can't have their own way?

While we're all in football purdah over the next few months, the rather splendid gent behind twohundredpercent.net has created playlists of over 2000 matches on YouTube from 1950s to 1992. Can see that getting a lot of use in this house over the next few months

https://www.youtube.com/user/200percent/playlists

The wife told me (no idea what her source is) that there is only one reported case in Turkey...

We just have to wait my understanding is we’d only get our money back if they cancel our holiday not if we cancel is...

We’re hopefully going out to Turkey around Easter but we haven’t booked our flights yet. Speaking to friends who live out there that say some flights from 9 countries are banned but Uk and Ireland are not. I suspect that will remain in place for a while as these 2 countries provide huge economical impact on the country. You may or may not know that you no longer need a Visa if you have a UK or Ireland passport. (found out today)

I’m waiting for news as to whether my work is doing wfh for the foreseeable future and then I’m going to book first available flights to Turkey and work from ‘home’ out there!

It was 5 yesterday. 6 today.

Yep I like that, Turkey and gammon go nicely 😁

I've been helping a few guys on twitter who have had their holidays cancelled, it's certainly tough times. One thing it's highlighted is how many people wait until last minute to get their insurance

Wow, who knew.

A friend recently booked a trip to Dubai in April. I wish I had their nonchalance (and bank balance).

Sobering stuff.

Italians over 80 'Will be Left to Die' as Country Overwhelmed by Coronavirus (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/14/italians-80-will-left-die-country-overwhelmed-coronavirus/)

Went shopping and bumped into someone who i used to work with and his mrs. Nothing odd about that, but they had a full shopping trolley each. I asked ‘stocking up?’ Half jokingly, to get the response ‘well you can never be too sure, how long we might have to stay off if we have to’

Jesus fucking wept

I know its a bit different but was speaking to a US colleague on Friday and he was telling me how cheap domestic flights are right now. Return flight from Newark to Tampa, Florida is $55 ($30 of that is taxes)

Is that you getting a tune out of the saucepan Mex?  ;)

I have just bought a load of shopping trolleys while they are still a pound.

Drove past Farmfoods this morning.
There was actually a queue of people waiting for it to open, things must be getting serious folks.

That's great news regarding the visa waiver (although it was simple enough), does that mean now that time spent in Turkey can be longer (without visa)? Asking for a friend, as I may 'work' out there remotely one day. I have a couple or three friends out there and they used to do the old "just nipping to Rhodes" trick but I believe that has been stamped down by the Turkish Gov.

Its a vicious circle. You have the panic buyers who are unnecessarily stocking up on items. This in turn causes panic across the non panic buyers because they are now panicking that there will not be anything left when they do need it,  ergo, they now feel the need to panic buy.

Not completely sure to be honest. Think 90 days is still the maximum. Eventually we’re going to try and get residency permits.

There’s only so much most people can get in a freezer. Generally, tinned food sucks.

The only thing I’ve probably overstocked on is bread flour and yeast.

1 wonder how long it will be until the government allows lorry drivers special dispensation, to work over their driving hours,
so that there are plentiful supplies of hand wash and bog rolls on the shelves?

Iceland in town was pretty quiet and well stocked. Bought a few items, had 1 person in front of me in the queue. No problems. Seems the big supermarkets are having the idiots going mad in them. They're watching each other and copying the behaviour

Sainsbury's don't seem to be affected like Asda, Tescos, Aldi and Lidl

Yesterday, Morrison's over Eldene was lacking in toilet roll but otherwise, not very busy and shelves pretty full.
Aldi in Upper Stratton was a bit busier but nothing too crazy.

There comes a point where all the stockpilers will have fully stockpiled, and the shops will go through a lean phase where people are not buying much as they run down their supplies.  Spare a thought for the poor bastards eating their 720th consecutive pasta dinner on Feb 22nd, 2022.

I can’t be doing with shops and the people in them so tried to go via the online route. First available slot is in 8 days!

No idea what replacements you will get if you've ordered biscuits,rice,pasta,porridge oats,toilet rolls etc😳

How do you know that? Genuine question, not a dig. And does the update to 35 today account for that? i.e. is it just a case of lagging on making figures public or are you suggesting there's more systemic under-reporting going on?

I was at a big supermarket in Bournemouth this morning, went in around 9.30 and there were about 100 queuing to get in. Got out around 10.10am and the car park was full, people looking for spaces.

Can I just reiterate a point I made earlier.

A plane of 200+ people from Madrid- one of the most infected cities on the planet right now, landed at Gatwick this morning and not one person was checked. They all dispersed throughout England many of them on public transport.
This is one plane of many!

Why the fuck are they not being checked???

The uk government lack of doing a fucking  thing is tantamount to manslaughter. Seriously.

Don't fret.
I'm sure Boris, after taking the weekend off as usual will have a prepared statement to bluster his way through tomorrow to put us all at ease.

This is unbelievable, have been hearing this for the past couple of weeks though

Johnson is a part time PM.  He is not in charge, and doesn't do detail.  He does what his advisers tell him to.

Tomorrow morning, he'll get a briefing from someone about what's been going on over the weekend.  Right now, he's still sleeping off a boozy roast dinner while Carrie is updating her Instagram account with pictures of animals.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

I thought all you europhiles should be happy for this? Then they can pile in to our NHS facilities and deprive everyone else who has a right to it.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Oh dear, how sad, never mind, lovely boy.

Do you think LL wasn't able to buy a 16-roll pack of bog rolls in Asda this morning or something?

3000 Athletico Madrid fans were in Liverpool on Wednesday for the Champions League game when they couldn't have attended their own home games at that time.  Certainly seems strange.

That said, I just heard a doctor on 5Live with Colin Murray say several times that it's likely that everyone will get the coronavirus in the UK at some stage, it's just about ensuring infections are spread across the year so that public services can cope.  If someone doesn't get it in this phase, they are likely to get it in the next phase.  The exceptions will be those that don't get it by the time a vaccine is developed.

That was very sobering.  When Colin asked him to repeat what he said, there was actually dead air for a few seconds.

No, he’s just a gargantuan imbicile.

Says you.

I’m sure I won’t be alone.

I’m sure too.

As much as I love the NHS the spanish health system is vastly superior. I have used both extensively and it’s scary how far the NHS is lagging behind. Why the hell would the spanish want to travel to the UK to use an inferior service? Genuine question?

Love you really LL. stay safe in these difficult times :)

My folks live in Spain and the health service they have enjoyed over the last fifteen years has been brilliant.

I'm on the DR planning for a Local Authority. I know there were 2 deaths Friday in the borough, They reported 1. But the one they reported was in hospital, and the 2 I know about weren't. I don't think it's deliberate misinformation, just they don't really know the full picture.

Every supermarket and wholesaler near me has been stripped bare of pretty much everything vaguely useful. I'm looking forward to winalot casserole this week. My weekly shop cost me £44 so i'm not moaning, and I didn't queue for 5 hours. I win.

If this leak to the Guardian proves even to be partially accurate ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

GWH has run out of masks for staff to wear...

I've just got in from a lovely three days in Amsterdam. It was very very quiet there, and i think all the people on the Eurostar coming back could have fitted in half a carriage.

If that's the case, that's staggering incompetence on the part of the national authorities. If you are aware of 2 deaths due to coronavirus, then I assume those deaths have been diagnosed as due to the virus, but they've either not been reported up the chain or not been logged because they're not in a hospital. It's one thing to not bother testing cases outside hospitals and prisons, which seems to be the case now, but to not log the deaths? That's beyond negligent.

Was kind of hoping that 6 months/120 days was the new limit as would be easier to go "semi-permanent", return to blighty for December for a month, spend month to month in a few other places then head back out May (that would be the plan and then as you say, try to eventually get residency if I enjoy the longer stints). I'll ask my mate who is an ex pat and another who is Izmir born and bred, out there to see what the "official" line is.

Have to catch you for a pint out there some time. If you can handle the natter  ;)

http://agencia.fapesp.br/cientistas-brasileiros-estao-desenvolvendo-vacina-contra-novo-coronavirus/32743/?fbclid=IwAR0dsRO8fOsbrvOa8nBEg28wTcyRmh0hUR6YkfP7-5XTAP0JUTYfyDxj87A#.Xm7FfKtFeMF.twitter

For those in the high risk groups (like you would be for any other virus), whom we should be looking out for at any time, not just now. Keep your eyes (or ears) on Brazil. A lot of work going on there and while the MSM seems to be enjoying the sadistic element of treating every new positive case, as if it were a death sentence; there could be more positive areas that they could focus on (we know that won't happen).

Out of interest though. It would be fascinating if the MSM were to report every positive case of Influenza and the current deaths since Devember too. Truth is they couldn't as there would be too many to report and fuck me panic levels would go beyond. People would be hot-footing it over to Switzerland to finish themselves off. Oh fuck, you can't even do that there's a flight ban!

In all seriousness, the article above gives strengthened hope to those in the upper 5% of most at risk.

Edit: Here's the WEEKLY data produced by PHE for the week ending 1st March 2020 for Influenza:

c5k ILI cases with c650 hospitalisations and c35 ICU admissions.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870503/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_10_2020.pdf

I don't know where you are getting your information from but this is the latest in a long line of bollocks statements from you. I have literally seen people wearing masks this morning.

My read is that the government strategy is for a decent chunk of the population who is healthy to get it, and build immunity. There's a lot of interesting reading on this idea (akin to herd immunity, but protecting the most vulnerable).

Protect the vulnerable, reduce and delay the peak through self-isolation and sensible social considerations, limit the impact on the economy by not closing everything and mitigate against an even more lethal second wave.

The European countries that are on complete lock down - what's the end game? As soon as they lift restrictions, they're in the same position or worse.

The only criticism I've got to this point is comms - but it's an unpalatable message to try and communicate.

It is not bollocks. My wife was on a night shift in SCBU on Friday. She called the premises team, and they said they had run out. SCBU never even had a delivery. I am not one to bullshit.

They are not dishing out face masks to people who don't need them. Tell her to read her emails, everyone should know this.

I can screenshot if you really like?

Massive fallout in my office. My boss has said she is gonna work from home for the forseeable future as she's a bit concerned (her fella has cancer and is at risk).

Someone in a different team on an IM channel called her pathetic for 'overreacting and causing panic'. All hell broke loose. Quite entertaining

Is the Prime minister still self isolating or will he do his fucking job?

Going by his track record, he has always been an oaf, so technically nothing has changed, work as normal :)

Thread derailing again, this isn't the politics thread  :)

This forum has always derailed. It's a political issue anyway 🤷‍♂️

Best coronavirus advice I've seen so far: "Behave as if you might be spreading it, not as if you’re trying to avoid it."

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1239449303099289600

https://singaporeuncensored.com/tiktok-user-starts-coronavirus-challenge-licks-airplane-toilet/

 ???

Looks like we are going into full lockdown mode from Wednesday. Complete ban on citizens going anywhere either than to get groceries or medicines.

Did a Lidl shop today with Mrs Audrey - only one of us allowed into the shop. We will now get issued with a card when wanting to do a shop - much like the numbered tickets you get for queuing for certain things. Each customer must be 2 sqm away from the next customer.

We’ve had zero cases on Kefalonia!

Its being rumoured that as of later in the week racing is to be held behind closed doors only, not altogether clear why if that's Ok the same cannot be done for football?

Not the same level of person-person contact for participants in racing as there is in football

I'm told that in some parts of Italy they aren't intervening on >65 year old catching it.

seems unlikely to me, but that's what an Italian doctor who has colleagues over there said...

no longer a rumour . from Tuesday

football wasn't closed to protect the public.

Wfh across the company from tomorrow, expecting at least two months. Interesting times ahead.

I think it is true, they are certainly already very public on the point having been reached where decisions need to be taken on where to exert the effort that is available.  Think one Doctor described as trying to decide how to help after an atom bomb.

Did you go to the pub?  :)

That's your own fault for going shopping dressed in school uniforms :)

Richard Branson - THE BILLIONAIRE - lays off his staff for 8 weeks WITHOUT PAY.

How many people will be able to last for 2 months without income. The amount of money involved would be nothings to somebody like him.

I hope those who are quick to say why aren't we copying this country or that country stop and read the following;

COVID-19 Why we are right to be scared, and what we can do about it. A thread that was first posted on Twitter, replicated here.

Who the hell am I? I’m a former Army officer who runs a charity these days, and isn’t a scientist.

I’ve an Environmental Sciences BSc sure, but not ‘an expert’ virologist, epidemiologist, or human factors guy. But - I do speak the language, and I am an expert on where the right answers lie.

From 2000 on I trained at Porton Down to specialise in chemical, biological & radiological warfare, deploying in support of UK interests around the world. Christmas 2000 on the Iraq border commanding manned biological detection systems, and things got really busy in 2001.

I started 2001 tracking the virology of F&M in the fields of Cumbria and Devon, but by end of the year I was in Kabul, dealing with some extraordinary challenges, including unsecured Russian Cobalt-60 sources, and Anthrax veterinary vaccine production facilities.

By 03 I was a Major, Chief of Staff to Dep Comd of the Iraq Survey Group. The bloke showing Dr David Kelly around Baghdad days before he returned to face enquiry. I’m not a blind government fanboy. Let's say I learnt the dangers of conflating politics & science the hard way.

I was on the staff at Porton Down, working on a host of projects including planning for military aid to civil authorities, incl pandemics.
So, COVID-19
Scary, isn’t it? I think so too.
There’s also an abundance of information out there, and you’ve questions.
I’ve an answer.

The teams behind the Chief Scientific Advisor are extraordinary.
They are genuinely the world leaders in their fields, and they are ridiculously good at their jobs.
They aren’t googling the answers, or parroting a line that they just heard from a pushy presenter on TV.

The plans for this stuff are incredibly comprehensive, and help a government to act decisively, and at the right time.
So much in response is about timing – and too soon can be more dangerous than too late.
Look at the second (winter) wave of Spanish flu (graph from CDC)

That long game is what they - the experts are considering now.
Pictures of smiling Chinese people removing masks are propaganda, not science. That’s designed to cause an emotional response, and not in your interests
Success of early containment can only be judged in years.

We – in the UK, right now, are doing incredibly well.
We’ll protect our vulnerable best by responding promptly when the time is right, and the people who hold that responsibility deserve our trust and our support.

That takes guts. I know that. Now, more than ever.

Government scientists, advisors and staff also have families, elderly relatives, the immunocompromised.
They aren’t automatons, they feel that weight of responsibility.

Party politics simply doesn’t come into it. It just doesn’t.

So don’t pander to it, or point score.

If your knowledge of the subject of pandemic is such that to understand the history of Spanish Flu you need to google it, then your dissent, because you are scared, has only one place.

Your inner monologue. Keep it to yourself.

Be brave. Read up on the .gov advice.

This is even more important than if you have a following for reasons other than your epidemiological expertise, so, some simple advice:

Shut the fuck up, you are scaring people.

People like Piers Morgan might have a voice, but they’d kill us all if we listened to it. Mute them.

Lastly, don’t feel bad about being scared. I’ve been scared, many times, don’t mind admitting it.

Turn off and mute the noise of those who seek personal gain by instilling fear and doubt in others. Those that pander and promote the worst in us. Be Kind.

So, look after each other, particularly those who are less able and more at risk.
Look after yourselves, your own mental as well as your physical health.

Follow the science.

Wash your hands.

Taken from another forum but also interesting;

I am trained as an epidemiologist and a communicable disease physician. I have also worked in predictive modelling in healthcare and in international health systems development. I am not, however, claiming to be an expert, but I would like to make an few observations...

1... it is unwise to draw parallels from one country to another. Many factors will be different from place to place, population age structure, population density, breadth of healthcare coverage, reliability and breadth of testing facilities, reliability and breadth of contact tracing capability, stage of spread when control measures were first introduced, population mobility, and many other things.

2... epidemic curves are a base case estimate and bear little comparison with real world spread. The more a disease spreads, the less reliable they become and the more complex a situation is, the less predictive they will be.

3... In the UK, the actual experts on this sort of thing are known as "Consultants in Communicable Disease Control". In other countries there are different arrangements. While others, such as intensive care specialists, microbiologists, virologist, mathematicians, journalists, acute physicians, behavioural psychologists have a contribution to make, they are not experts on disease spread in the community and should not be regarded (or present themselves) as such

4... Almost everything that I have seen on social media is misleading and inaccurate. Some of it is extremely dangerous. If you want high quality information, you can get it from the health ministry, public health authority or health system of the country you are in. If you don't want to rely solely on government information, look at the official statements from reputable health orientated universities and departments. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Johns Hopkins and the TH Chan School of Public Health at Harvard are a good place to start. The World Health Organisation has good information, but it has to work in a range of very different countries and so may not be the most practically useful for a particular country.

5... we are not testing everybody in the world, so we can't reliably measure death rates. A simple totting up of the numbers will be a massive overestimate. In addition to this, the way people are tested varies massively from place to place. A low number of cases could mean not much disease or not enough testing.

6... There are only two meaningful strategies for managing an emerging infection. The first is containment, where you isolate cases and trace and test their contacts. If spread within a community becomes too great, this strategy becomes ineffective. The second strategy is herd immunity. The basis of this is that when a certain proportion of people have become immune to an infection, it can no longer spread and so people who are not immune are protected. This is why we vaccinate children. Part of a herd immunity strategy is to protect people at particular risk of harm until lots of low risk people are immune, so the disease can't spread to the vulnerable. A herd immunity strategy is not about culling the vulnerable, it is about protecting the vulnerable. This is a new infection and we are learning about it and our immune responses over time. Strategies will change and develop as knowledge grows

7... in many outbreaks, more people die (usually of things like heart attacks and strokes) because they can't get access to healthcare than die of the infection itself. It is extremely important to make sure that health services are not overwhelmed so that people can get the help they need.

8... there are three key ways we can protect health services. Firstly we need to ensure that, if we don't need to seek healthcare we stay away. Secondly, we "flatten the curve" to stretch out the number of people getting the infection over a longer time period, so they don't all arrive at hospital at the same time. Finally we need to ensure that we have enough people to staff our health and care services. If people can't get childcare, they may not be able to work, so we must be very cautious about closing schools etc.

9... nothing is simple and every action will have risks of negative consequences that we may not initially be aware of, so if something that is obvious to you is not happening, it doesn't necessarily mean that others are stupid or wicked, it is more likely that you are missing part of the picture...

10... social isolation can do a great deal of harm to people, particularly older people and the more vulnerable. As containment and delay measures increase it will be really important that our friends, families and neighbours are supported. If we all check in on those around us, no one will suffer unnecessarily. Now is a good time to start sharing phone numbers.

11... wash your hands

I think you mean the tax exile billionaire who sued the NHS for 10s of millions of pounds, depriving it of funds that could now be being used to combat this crisis and who is demanding a £7.5bn handout to save his failing business, again money that could be used to help all of us while he holes up and sits the whole thing out on his private island. That billionaire?

Northern Premier League suspended until further notice.

https://twitter.com/JeremyVineOn5/status/1239512626134224896

Can imagine it'll all be off now we are into the next phase of distancing.

But are we gonna do Stonehenge tomorrow.

Tonight's press conference is a bit odd - everyone being 'urged' to avoid social contact where not necessary, but almost nothing is being mandated closed? Seems an odd combination.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETPc4_SWkAENhJg?format=jpg&name=large)

it's also odd - no pubs, clubs, restaurants and theatres

off you go to school tomorrow though ...

I get tying up patents with childcare, but ??

Virtual gigs seem to be the in thing at the moment. I've watched a couple live on Facebook and Twitch. Good fun.

Feel sorry for the bands who rely on touring as their income, I'm seeing Billionaires asking the government for handouts when its these guys, the musicians, the artists and pretty much anyone self employed that need help the most.