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Bob's Orange

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« on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 16:38:29 »

It looks like only a matter of time before Coronavirus makes its way to blighty. But its ok, the US have the cure.

"Trump on Tuesday said the US was “very close” to a coronavirus vaccine, which is at least a year away from being available in the best scenario. The White House later said the president was instead speaking about the Ebola vaccine approved two months ago."

Plank.
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pauld

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« Reply #1 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 16:43:03 »

It looks like only a matter of time before Coronavirus makes its way to blighty. But its ok, the US have the cure.

"Trump on Tuesday said the US was “very close” to a coronavirus vaccine, which is at least a year away from being available in the best scenario. The White House later said the president was instead speaking about the Ebola vaccine approved two months ago."

Plank.
It's a good job he didn't order the dismantling of the US Federal epidemic management system in 2018 or they might have something to worry about. Although apparently coronavirus is just a Chinese/left-wing/whoever else is the enemy du jour conspiracy to undermine his re-election bid anyway.
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Bob's Orange

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« Reply #2 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 17:09:39 »

My eldest's school is closed for the remainder of the week.  Some staff & kids returning from a school ski trip in N Italy showing 'mild flu-like symptoms'.

Similarly one of the offices in Canary Wharf has closed as one of its staff members who has come back from a country where the virus is prevalent has shown flu symptons. I'd happily work from home for the time being!
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bamboonoshop

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« Reply #3 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 18:03:44 »

The thing is, flu is still a big killer with c500k deaths worldwide per year. And we actually have a vaccine for that yet it still causes havoc. No "self isolating" though, just sneeze/cough over whoever you like cos "it's only flu".

Truth be told, Influenza is more deadly. 2019-nCoV, while yes capable of causing death to those with mostly underlying or pre-existing conditions, the Fatality Rate (FR) is just 8%. We're also still talking very small numbers in epidemic senses. When matched against flu, worldwide cases are in the c3m bracket (an FR of c18%) annually. Even at the current rate 2019-nCoV would be on track for c500k cases and 40k deaths. That figure is unlikely, as cases are showing signs of plateauing and as the Northern Hemisphere pushes towards warmer temperatures, the virus cannot live as long.

I reckon it'll max out at around 250k cases with 10k deaths (FR c4%). WHO reckon the final CFR (Case Fatality Rate) will be less than that at c2%. But who am I to make any such claims?

I still think the media is doing a sterling job of scaremongering though. I've had people say to me they think it will evolve into some indestructible superbug that can't be eradicated (see Influenza), and will slowly wipe out the human species. When giving them comparable data versus Flu, they almost disregard and ignore it. That alone shows you the effect the media can have upon Joe public.
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horlock07

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« Reply #4 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 19:13:15 »

The thing is, flu is still a big killer with c500k deaths worldwide per year. And we actually have a vaccine for that yet it still causes havoc. No "self isolating" though, just sneeze/cough over whoever you like cos "it's only flu".

Truth be told, Influenza is more deadly. 2019-nCoV, while yes capable of causing death to those with mostly underlying or pre-existing conditions, the Fatality Rate (FR) is just 8%. We're also still talking very small numbers in epidemic senses. When matched against flu, worldwide cases are in the c3m bracket (an FR of c18%) annually. Even at the current rate 2019-nCoV would be on track for c500k cases and 40k deaths. That figure is unlikely, as cases are showing signs of plateauing and as the Northern Hemisphere pushes towards warmer temperatures, the virus cannot live as long.

I reckon it'll max out at around 250k cases with 10k deaths (FR c4%). WHO reckon the final CFR (Case Fatality Rate) will be less than that at c2%. But who am I to make any such claims?

I still think the media is doing a sterling job of scaremongering though. I've had people say to me they think it will evolve into some indestructible superbug that can't be eradicated (see Influenza), and will slowly wipe out the human species. When giving them comparable data versus Flu, they almost disregard and ignore it. That alone shows you the effect the media can have upon Joe public.

Its almost as if there is something potentially closer to home that the media would rather not talk about!
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Richie Wellen-Dowd

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« Reply #5 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 20:15:43 »

The thing is, flu is still a big killer with c500k deaths worldwide per year. And we actually have a vaccine for that yet it still causes havoc. No "self isolating" though, just sneeze/cough over whoever you like cos "it's only flu".

Truth be told, Influenza is more deadly. 2019-nCoV, while yes capable of causing death to those with mostly underlying or pre-existing conditions, the Fatality Rate (FR) is just 8%. We're also still talking very small numbers in epidemic senses. When matched against flu, worldwide cases are in the c3m bracket (an FR of c18%) annually. Even at the current rate 2019-nCoV would be on track for c500k cases and 40k deaths. That figure is unlikely, as cases are showing signs of plateauing and as the Northern Hemisphere pushes towards warmer temperatures, the virus cannot live as long.

I reckon it'll max out at around 250k cases with 10k deaths (FR c4%). WHO reckon the final CFR (Case Fatality Rate) will be less than that at c2%. But who am I to make any such claims?

I still think the media is doing a sterling job of scaremongering though. I've had people say to me they think it will evolve into some indestructible superbug that can't be eradicated (see Influenza), and will slowly wipe out the human species. When giving them comparable data versus Flu, they almost disregard and ignore it. That alone shows you the effect the media can have upon Joe public.

The mortality rate with influenza is approximately 0.1%. The coronavirus appears to be more than 20 times deadlier.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #6 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 20:29:40 »

Did I read somewhere that the Coronavirus  started with Pangolins?
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« Reply #7 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 20:34:23 »

Dunno, but that bloke and his mrs that were on the cruise ship who are on the news everyday are getting right on my tits
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bamboonoshop

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« Reply #8 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 21:36:52 »

The mortality rate with influenza is approximately 0.1%. The coronavirus appears to be more than 20 times deadlier.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but;

c3 million cases
—————————
= 17/18%
c500,000 deaths

It's also not "the coronavirus". There have been plenty of strains of "coronavirus". Usually H1N1/H1N2 etc is the name associated to the A sub type of Influenza (or Seasonal Flu). This is Covid-19 or 2019-nCoV. I mild strain of Influenza (that they don't have a vaccine for yet).

Back on original point. How do you get to 0.1% for Flu? That'd require 500million cases per year or 1 in 14 for wordwide pop at 7bn. Yet the case figures are 1/100th of this at best, at 5m.

I think you may be looking at US figures only where it falls at c0.1%. The US figures may be a little more unique as people there tend to get a Flu Shot every year, regardless if age or need. Thus their mortality rate is likely to be very low. But I'm talking wordwide figures and as stated that is c17/18%. There is a range between 5% to 20% though.

Edit: The US CDC figures tend to include ALL cases (even the mild ones). Whereas WHO uses medium to severe case data.
« Last Edit: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 21:42:20 by bamboonoshop » Logged

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Richie Wellen-Dowd

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« Reply #9 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 22:27:25 »

Forgive me if I'm wrong but;

c3 million cases
—————————
= 17/18%
c500,000 deaths

It's also not "the coronavirus". There have been plenty of strains of "coronavirus". Usually H1N1/H1N2 etc is the name associated to the A sub type of Influenza (or Seasonal Flu). This is Covid-19 or 2019-nCoV. I mild strain of Influenza (that they don't have a vaccine for yet).

Back on original point. How do you get to 0.1% for Flu? That'd require 500million cases per year or 1 in 14 for wordwide pop at 7bn. Yet the case figures are 1/100th of this at best, at 5m.

I think you may be looking at US figures only where it falls at c0.1%. The US figures may be a little more unique as people there tend to get a Flu Shot every year, regardless if age or need. Thus their mortality rate is likely to be very low. But I'm talking wordwide figures and as stated that is c17/18%. There is a range between 5% to 20% though.

Edit: The US CDC figures tend to include ALL cases (even the mild ones). Whereas WHO uses medium to severe case data.

You can't compare mortality rates for severe cases of flu with that for all cases of THE coronavirus. The CDC estimates 31 million people caught the flu in the US this season. Obviously there is a danger in extrapolating that over the entire world, but given estimated deaths each year are between 250,000-500,000 it wouldn't be anywhere near that percentage even if all the deaths were in the US(estimates are between 12,000-30,000 from 1st Oct 19 to 1st Feb 20).
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bamboonoshop

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« Reply #10 on: Wednesday, February 26, 2020, 23:49:38 »

I'm going on WHO data. However we can't* use estimated or historical data with 2019-nCoV as it is still ongoing. If we were to only use severe cases of 2019-nCoV then the projected CFR would be higher (*I say we can't, we can but doing so doesn't guarantee accurate numbers).

If we only use closed case data for Covid-19 at present (2.7k deaths/33k closed cases = 8%) but we have another 48k ongoing cases with 8.9k classed as serious/critical. Even if all 8.9k were to die we would have at present numbers, 11.6k proj deaths/81k proj close case = 14.3%.

We can't rely on projected data in an ongoing case. One because that elevates it way higher than the current rate. Two, we already know the case rate is starting to plateau.

As to why CDC uses ALL data for Flu and WHO seemingly only uses medium to severe cases, I have no idea but when comparing world data, it is equally unfair to use data from only one country (albeit one with 300m people) for Flu and world data for Covid-19.

I get your point but until Covid-19 is "over" and we know the extent of deaths to severe/medium cases ratio. We will have no idea of the real CFR%.

The point really being, using deaths only, is that Flu has a range of 250k - 600k per year. At present Covid-19 has 2.7k  (ongoing) after 2 mnths. IF we have to project and replicate Covid-19 over the short historical data available, there would be 486k cases with 16.2k deaths giving 3.33%.

For measure, MERS, which hardly anyone heard much about had a CFR of 34.4% (some 840+ deaths from c2.4k cases).

All we do know is that 2019-nCoV has some way to go to surpass the number set by Influenza. Factor in that Flu does have vaccines and it still pulls in a good chunk of deaths. Imagine if there were no Flu vaccine, and there would be even more deaths to Flu. At present 2019-nCoV has no vaccine but as stated, case numbers are plateauing. Indicating being contained. So when a vaccine becomes available, if "THE Coronavirus" is still around/rears itself again, we should and hope that death numbers would be much lower.
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Dr Pierre Chang

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« Reply #11 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 00:06:53 »

Oi you two! Stop interrupting Horlock and Paul’s drivel  Wink
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Richie Wellen-Dowd

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« Reply #12 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 09:32:35 »

I'm going on WHO data. However we can't* use estimated or historical data with 2019-nCoV as it is still ongoing. If we were to only use severe cases of 2019-nCoV then the projected CFR would be higher (*I say we can't, we can but doing so doesn't guarantee accurate numbers).

If we only use closed case data for Covid-19 at present (2.7k deaths/33k closed cases = 8%) but we have another 48k ongoing cases with 8.9k classed as serious/critical. Even if all 8.9k were to die we would have at present numbers, 11.6k proj deaths/81k proj close case = 14.3%.

We can't rely on projected data in an ongoing case. One because that elevates it way higher than the current rate. Two, we already know the case rate is starting to plateau.

:sigh: You could have just said you used the wrong figures. Okay, one more post and I'm done.

As to why CDC uses ALL data for Flu and WHO seemingly only uses medium to severe cases, I have no idea but when comparing world data, it is equally unfair to use data from only one country (albeit one with 300m people) for Flu and world data for Covid-19.

I get your point but until Covid-19 is "over" and we know the extent of deaths to severe/medium cases ratio. We will have no idea of the real CFR%.

It's not equally unfair, by using the death rate for severe cases of flu you massively distorted it's risk versus coronavirus. Even if we had a figure for deaths from severe cases of coronavirus, how deadly a virus is in severe cases tells us nothing about how deadly it is to catch. That's a complete red herring.

I couldn't find a figure for global infections so I extrapolated the figure for the US across the world, something I pointed out was a danger(the US figure could have been an anomaly, or the US could have a much higher infection rate per year than the rest of the world). I wasn't trying to get published in The Lancet though, I was just highlighting how wildly out your figure was.

39 million cases of flu in the US is about 12% of the population. Let's be slightly cautious and say it's 6% for the entire world(I know that could still be too high).

6% of the world's population is about 450,000,000.

Estimated flu deaths each year are 250,000-500,000

That gives a fatality rate of 0.055-0.11%

The point really being, using deaths only, is that Flu has a range of 250k - 600k per year. At present Covid-19 has 2.7k  (ongoing) after 2 mnths. IF we have to project and replicate Covid-19 over the short historical data available, there would be 486k cases with 16.2k deaths giving 3.33%.

For measure, MERS, which hardly anyone heard much about had a CFR of 34.4% (some 840+ deaths from c2.4k cases).

That's some goalpost-shifting Reg would be proud of. I actually agree that there is too much scaremongering and people get too hysterical, but as Aristotle said, 'Fear is pain arising from the anticipation of evil'. It looks to be spreading and current rates of death are far higher than from flu, so people are concerned. Dismissing things can be just as dangerous as exaggerating them. There's a reason China has gone to such extreme measures to try and contain it, and the only public figures I've seen dismissing it's severity are Trump and batshit crazy Cambodian dictator Hun Sen.
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« Reply #13 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 10:05:16 »

The CDC stats show that the flu had a death rate of approximately 0.1% in 2018-2019.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Coronavirus is thought to have a death rate of around 1%, making it MUCH more deadly. While healthy individuals should have little reason to be concerned, that 1% could still result in millions of deaths if it is not contained. In my novice opinion, it seems that it is too late to contain it.

There are also other concerns because, as a new virus, it is still unpredictable.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #14 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 10:16:51 »

We used to have the Corona man come round on a Friday evening with his fizzy pop🥤
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