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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1188275 times)
Abrahammer

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« Reply #2955 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 16:05:14 »

Interesting, I’ll get back in my box!
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #2956 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 16:55:44 »

Tweet from FT correspondent Chris Giles re overall excess deaths in Germany. Makes an interesting comparison to our estimated 48,100 overall excess deaths

"Finally, Germany has published its total mortality figures (only up to April 5), but no sign of excess deaths at all 
- really a strong performance"
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1255901975738298368
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #2957 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 17:27:03 »

The Office of the US Director of National Intelligence has issued a statement saying "The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified". Given the enormous pressure from Trump and the far right to find evidence that it was somehow manufactured by the Chinese, that's quite some admission.
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Richie Wellen-Dowd

« Reply #2958 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 17:28:37 »

Tweet from FT correspondent Chris Giles re overall excess deaths in Germany. Makes an interesting comparison to our estimated 48,100 overall excess deaths

"Finally, Germany has published its total mortality figures (only up to April 5), but no sign of excess deaths at all 
- really a strong performance"
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1255901975738298368

Germany should hang their heads in shame when compared with New Zealand, who should hang their heads in shame when compared with Cambodia(0 deaths). Even Somalia haven't done too bad, so maybe we need Sharia law and al-shabab roaming in the home counties?

I personally think our government handled the early part of this very badly, yet even that might accidentally end up being beneficial. Can we please not just agree to wait until it's possible to compare to, you know, compare?
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Flashheart

« Reply #2959 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 17:33:27 »

They've extended the alcohol ban in Thailand for another month, with no opportunity to stock up. My own supplies are almost finished.

There's rather a lot of unhappy bunnies about. I'm hoping to be able to get some booze on the sly but I will be jolly well annoyed if I cannot.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #2960 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 18:32:38 »

Can we please not just agree to wait until it's possible to compare to, you know, compare?
In terms of numbers, yes I think that's fair, no-one wants some kind of grisly league table. But I think it's reasonable to compare different approaches between different countries.
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Richie Wellen-Dowd

« Reply #2961 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 18:56:51 »

In terms of numbers, yes I think that's fair, no-one wants some kind of grisly league table. But I think it's reasonable to compare different approaches between different countries.

I disagree, I think we understand so little about it (particularly we, the public) that it borders on pointless at this moment in time. Besides, almost every take I've seen has been for political point scoring. Mostly that's to criticise the government, though it equally applies to the 'Look at Sweden! Open up the economy!' crowd.

Also, as I've said previously, we don't know the end outcome of all this. We could have (possibly even accidentally) taken the right actions, whereas Germany could have made huge errors by trying to do the right thing. We just don't know.

My challenge would simply be this. If you or anyone else wishes to continue comparing death or infection rates between nations, could you first explain how Cambodia has 122 confirmed infections and 0 confirmed deaths?

To be clear, I'm not arguing against or in favour of more or less restrictive conditions in the UK. I'm arguing against comparing with other countries solely. The government should be held accountable now over things it can actually change now, like ppe, testing, care homes etc. Trying to work out how the fire started while the house is still ablaze is not the time(excuse the analogy.)
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #2962 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 19:11:27 »

They've extended the alcohol ban in Thailand for another month, with no opportunity to stock up. My own supplies are almost finished.

There's rather a lot of unhappy bunnies about. I'm hoping to be able to get some booze on the sly but I will be jolly well annoyed if I cannot.
So what’s the theory behind the ban?
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Flashheart

« Reply #2963 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 19:19:01 »

So what’s the theory behind the ban?

Supposedly it's to stop people meeting up and having parties and stuff.

Which might make sense if there were not already a load of people about. They even announced they were opening up a load of stuff again at the same time.

Dicks. I bet the cunts making the decision made sure they were well stocked up first.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2964 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 19:46:05 »

I disagree, I think we understand so little about it (particularly we, the public) that it borders on pointless at this moment in time. Besides, almost every take I've seen has been for political point scoring. Mostly that's to criticise the government, though it equally applies to the 'Look at Sweden! Open up the economy!' crowd.

Also, as I've said previously, we don't know the end outcome of all this. We could have (possibly even accidentally) taken the right actions, whereas Germany could have made huge errors by trying to do the right thing. We just don't know.

My challenge would simply be this. If you or anyone else wishes to continue comparing death or infection rates between nations, could you first explain how Cambodia has 122 confirmed infections and 0 confirmed deaths?

To be clear, I'm not arguing against or in favour of more or less restrictive conditions in the UK. I'm arguing against comparing with other countries solely. The government should be held accountable now over things it can actually change now, like ppe, testing, care homes etc. Trying to work out how the fire started while the house is still ablaze is not the time(excuse the analogy.)

Depends, pouring water on a chip fat fire can be a very bad thing to do, so knowing it is a chip fat fire is important.

You are certainly right that we have big variation globally, but we can find comparators - countries like us, reporting like us, etc.  NYC vs London may be relevant for example.  Sweden may not be as high as us due to population density, but still not doing well when comparing to Denmark or Norway that would otherwise have similar characteristics for example.  Drawing certain conclusions is probably impossible right now, having a good sense of what is happening and how to act is going to be important though.
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StfcRusty

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« Reply #2965 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 19:47:22 »

I disagree, I think we understand so little about it (particularly we, the public) that it borders on pointless at this moment in time. Besides, almost every take I've seen has been for political point scoring. Mostly that's to criticise the government, though it equally applies to the 'Look at Sweden! Open up the economy!' crowd.

Also, as I've said previously, we don't know the end outcome of all this. We could have (possibly even accidentally) taken the right actions, whereas Germany could have made huge errors by trying to do the right thing. We just don't know.

My challenge would simply be this. If you or anyone else wishes to continue comparing death or infection rates between nations, could you first explain how Cambodia has 122 confirmed infections and 0 confirmed deaths?

To be clear, I'm not arguing against or in favour of more or less restrictive conditions in the UK. I'm arguing against comparing with other countries solely. The government should be held accountable now over things it can actually change now, like ppe, testing, care homes etc. Trying to work out how the fire started while the house is still ablaze is not the time(excuse the analogy.)

Good post. That makes a lot of sense to me. There are so many apparent contradictions in the data v approach that it does tend to suggest we really don’t fully understand this virus yet. I keep hearing “we’re following the science” when what they really mean is “we’re following what we understand the science to be at this point”. Science never changes. Our understanding of it does.

That said, the bare-faced lying and manipulation by this Govt and it’s media cheerleaders doesn’t sit well with me. A lot of it will get forgotten if it hasn’t been already.
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Richie Wellen-Dowd

« Reply #2966 on: Thursday, April 30, 2020, 19:59:05 »

Depends, pouring water on a chip fat fire can be a very bad thing to do, so knowing it is a chip fat fire is important.

You are certainly right that we have big variation globally, but we can find comparators - countries like us, reporting like us, etc.  NYC vs London may be relevant for example.  Sweden may not be as high as us due to population density, but still not doing well when comparing to Denmark or Norway that would otherwise have similar characteristics for example.  Drawing certain conclusions is probably impossible right now, having a good sense of what is happening and how to act is going to be important though.

I'm not suggesting for a minute that the experts shouldn't look to try to analyse and compare what is happening globally.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #2967 on: Friday, May 1, 2020, 06:27:01 »

To be clear, I'm not arguing against or in favour of more or less restrictive conditions in the UK. I'm arguing against comparing with other countries solely. The government should be held accountable now over things it can actually change now, like ppe, testing, care homes etc. Trying to work out how the fire started while the house is still ablaze is not the time(excuse the analogy.)
If you're saying we can't fully understand the causes and course of the pandemic without thorough retropsective analysis, well yes. If you are making the increasingly common "Let's wait till this thing is over before anyone analyses how the govt is doing" argument, then I profoundly disagree. There were clearly huge errors and complacency in the govt's initial approach and it was only due to an outcry from public and press that the disastrous "herd immunity without a vaccine"/"take it on the chin" approach that would have led to hundreds of thousands of deaths by the govt's own advisers estimates was abandoned. And we are still playing catch-up from that complacency, which is why we don't have the infrasrtructure or the bodies on the ground to implement widespread testing much less a coherent test trace and isolate plan. There are times when a course correction is needed and a complacent self-congratulatory govt (Johnson apparently thinks 48k deaths is a "success" he can be pleased about) will not implement that left to its own devices.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #2968 on: Friday, May 1, 2020, 06:36:06 »

Meanwhile, in the US, armed gunmen encouraged by the President, storm the Michigan state capitol to intimidate legislators. How is this not insurrection?

https://twitter.com/DanielNewman/status/1255949280814215170?s=19
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Valid Pint

« Reply #2969 on: Friday, May 1, 2020, 06:44:29 »

Meanwhile in Belarus: "On 30 April, a total of 14,027 confirmed cases have been reported, including 2,386 recoveries and 89 deaths. More than 176,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in Belarus".
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