Coronavirus

[pauld]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52501453

You have to wonder exactly how traumatic being Coventry's goalkeeper was to drive him that fucking mental

[singingiiiffy]

That's why I've been banging on about the overall excess deaths stats that the FT have been working out as it's the only reliable method of working out what the impact of Covid19 has been in terms of deaths. Not my words, that's according to Chris Whitty and Iain Vallance, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer. That figure, overall excess deaths, is currently at just over 48k deaths.

The 48k figure isnt deaths that have Covid19 on the death certificate though? You could say that the normal death rate plus covid 19 equals that figure. or that having a lockdown had indeed meant an increase in suicides, an increase due to people being scared to go to the NHS or had operations cancelled etc. if these contributing factors are correct then it raises the point that an early lockdown would still have had these associated deaths. you try to limit the affect of one by having an increase in the other. there is no easy cut and dry debate as people on here suggest. we weren't ready on testing and ppe as a country that has been evident- all of the rest is guess work right now.

there was nothing stopping people from staying at home and social distancing before the government told people to do so. same with businesses and their procedures

[Flashheart]

You have to wonder exactly how traumatic being Coventry's goalkeeper was to drive him that fucking mental

I didn't open the link at first.

But as soon as I saw your comment I knew who you were talking about. And knowing he'd been spouting conspiracy theories about COVID, the first thought that popped into my head was that he should be deplatformed.

I'm glad I did open the link now.

Conspiracy theorists fascinate me in a 'look at those funny nutters' type of way. But they are also far from benign at times.

[Ardiles]

That's why I've been banging on about the overall excess deaths stats that the FT have been working out as it's the only reliable method of working out what the impact of Covid19 has been in terms of deaths. Not my words, that's according to Chris Whitty and Iain Vallance, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer. That figure, overall excess deaths, is currently at just over 48k deaths.

The only proviso I'd add to that is that a simple subtraction of the 2020 deaths figure from a 5 year average at the same time of year would not recognise that there are annual fluctuations in the death rate for other reasons as well.  COVID is certainly going to be the major contributor to the increased deaths in 2020, but it might not be the only one.  I guess the reason that a 5 year average is taken is precisely because, even in 'normal' times, the death rate does vary from year to year - fluctuating around an average, fair enough.  But it does fluctuate.

Not disagreeing with your central point at all...just recognising possible additional factors, which could work either way.

[@mwooly63]

Post lockdown masks available.

https://twitter.com/Official_STFC/status/1256226420982001664?s=20

Preordered a couple earlier

[pauld]

The 48k figure isnt deaths that have Covid19 on the death certificate though? You could say that the normal death rate plus covid 19 equals that figure. or that having a lockdown had indeed meant an increase in suicides, an increase due to people being scared to go to the NHS or had operations cancelled etc. if these contributing factors are correct then it raises the point that an early lockdown would still have had these associated deaths.

All of this is true, that's why both the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Officer have said overall excess deaths is the best baseline figure to use as it flattens out the other inconsistencies. 48,000 deaths is a horrendous death toll by any reckoning

[4D]

48,000 is around the average monthly number of deaths in the UK.

[RobertT]

The 48k figure isnt deaths that have Covid19 on the death certificate though? You could say that the normal death rate plus covid 19 equals that figure. or that having a lockdown had indeed meant an increase in suicides, an increase due to people being scared to go to the NHS or had operations cancelled etc. if these contributing factors are correct then it raises the point that an early lockdown would still have had these associated deaths. you try to limit the affect of one by having an increase in the other. there is no easy cut and dry debate as people on here suggest. we weren't ready on testing and ppe as a country that has been evident- all of the rest is guess work right now.

there was nothing stopping people from staying at home and social distancing before the government told people to do so. same with businesses and their procedures

Actually, what you raise here is a very important facet when it comes to keeping on top of the data.  Knowing the true impact of a Pandemic is very important, every one ever recorded has a much higher total than were recorded at the time for the reason of including total impact on all causes of death.  That is the true impact of the Pandemic.

It's also vital to understand what was directly caused, what we can assume was because of the virus but not tested, and then what other impact it had indirectly on deaths.  That last one will lag for years - people skipping cancer treatments or not being diagnosed quickly enough.  I know you are trying to argue that we should have stayed open, but measuring this type of data will give people the right information to make that call for the next Pandemic, or next outbreak of this one.  If lock downs created more non-Covid relate deaths than we can reasonably estimate the virus would cause without lock down, Govt.s would need to use that to manage their responses.

As it happens, we've had several major Pandemics in the past 100 years.  We've got a lot of data on what works and what doesn't.  Most countries even have pretty well designed plans to execute.  What is very clear with this Pandemic is very few enacted their plans once a Global outbreak was likely.  It seems, previous Pandemics suggested the best course of action was to isolate the virus quickly, to treat it as highly transmissible, contact trace and quarantine people (assuming they have it) etc.  very few did this, most of the world seemed to be happy they hadn't had any, then many cases for a few weeks.  Waiting for the data.  The plans appear to suggest that is not what you do.  Lock down is a last resort to an uncontrolled outbreak, and even then everyone is doing it a little different.

Previous Pandemics have also taught us some harsh lessons - reacting well to the first outbreak is all well and good, but being complacent can then kick you in the teeth.  San Fran in the 1918 Flu had a good initial response, which included people wearing cloth masks.  When it came around again, they thought the masks had been the key factor, so avoided doing all the other stuff they did to prevent spread, they got fucked over.

[RobertT]

48,000 is around the average monthly number of deaths in the UK.

Yes, which is why 22,351 dying in week commencing 17th April is pretty alarming.

[donkey]

You have to wonder exactly how traumatic being Coventry's goalkeeper was to drive him that fucking mental

Yeah Steve Ogrizovic thinks the Welsh invented the colour orange.

[singingiiiffy]

I hate the country comparisons stats but I am about to refer to it.. we all know that chinese numbers look insane and unrealistic but then you look at Hong Kong who have had FOUR deaths and think just wtf and how? has any far east country suffered bad? there are millions of questions with this virus and it is truly baffling.

people saying this virus was around since before christmas, it must have been hitting these places as well.

[4D]

The stats are baffling as to why some countries go fairly unscathed and nearby countries get hit hard.

[theakston2k]

I hate the country comparisons stats but I am about to refer to it.. we all know that chinese numbers look insane and unrealistic but then you look at Hong Kong who have had FOUR deaths and think just wtf and how? has any far east country suffered bad? there are millions of questions with this virus and it is truly baffling.

people saying this virus was around since before christmas, it must have been hitting these places as well.

Well depends if it was cooked up in some Chinese laboratory I guess but then we’re getting into conspiracy theories now that it is a weapon....

[Richie Wellen-Dowd]

I hate the country comparisons stats but I am about to refer to it.. we all know that chinese numbers look insane and unrealistic but then you look at Hong Kong who have had FOUR deaths and think just wtf and how? has any far east country suffered bad? there are millions of questions with this virus and it is truly baffling.

people saying this virus was around since before christmas, it must have been hitting these places as well.

I spoke to a friend in Hong Kong two or three weeks back. She said restaurants had stayed open, bars where supposed to be shut but the ones near her flat were still open and always looked busy when she passed. She was back at work by then too, her office split the workforce in half and went in on alternate days. Go figure.

[mexico red]

IVE BEEN FOR A FUCKING WALK!!!!!

By god it felt good!! 55 days. Locked in. Was just amazing.