Coronavirus

[Ardiles]

No you don't, but the school still asked us to get one done. I decided I may as well get tested too, but mine was negative.

It's quite something when schools and retail businesses are having to make their own rules - because the Government has thrown the towel in.  'Do what you like.  We're past caring.'

[horlock07]

It's quite something when schools and retail businesses are having to make their own rules - because the Government has thrown the towel in.  'Do what you like.  We're past caring.'

For quite some time Cumbria CC have been working to advice/rules more stringent than those advised by the DfE, and I assume even more divergent now its open house.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Why are the daily deaths still so high if Omicron isn’t so deadly.

[Bob's Orange]

Why are the daily deaths still so high if Omicron isn’t so deadly.

I meant to ask about deaths actually. Why do they do reported deaths within 28 days of a positive test? Surely it's a completely inaccurate way of reporting the number of people that actually die of Covid, as the numbers will include people that had Covid and died of completely different causes. So if you get run over, or murdered within 28 days of a positive Covid test you are included in the stats? Why can't they just report the actual number of people who have died as a result of Covid?

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

I’m sure I’m not alone, but I think most people have got Covid stats fatigue.

The figures are meaningless without context. The number of daily cases means nothing. All that counts is the number being hospitalised and how many people are dying of Covid and Covid alone.

[4D]

My thoughts are that the omicron variant is prevelant in a much bigger number of people now, just because the daily deaths figure has increased it doesn't mean they died of covid. They've just had it in the previous month.

[Batch]

similarly it doesn't mean they'd still have died without catching covid within that month.

as Aud says, it's about hospitals ability to cope, which they seem.to be doing.

number of cases are still important in order to predict likely strain on hospitals - given the lag. but agree people are probably treating them as 'noise'

[adje]

I meant to ask about deaths actually. Why do they do reported deaths within 28 days of a positive test? Surely it's a completely inaccurate way of reporting the number of people that actually die of Covid, as the numbers will include people that had Covid and died of completely different causes. So if you get run over, or murdered within 28 days of a positive Covid test you are included in the stats? Why can't they just report the actual number of people who have died as a result of Covid?

I've been asking this in my mind for 2 years

[Posh Red]

I meant to ask about deaths actually. Why do they do reported deaths within 28 days of a positive test? Surely it's a completely inaccurate way of reporting the number of people that actually die of Covid, as the numbers will include people that had Covid and died of completely different causes. So if you get run over, or murdered within 28 days of a positive Covid test you are included in the stats? Why can't they just report the actual number of people who have died as a result of Covid?

Because often the cause of death is heart attack or other issues with organs which have failed due to contracting Covid, however the person no longer tests positive.

I read something recently from a lady whose father was still on a ventilator and fighting for his life more than 30 days after testing negative.

There’s not a perfect way of measuring, but clearly if someone is hit by a bus that’s unlikely to be Covid related

[RobertT]

I believe it is similar with Flu - nobody really dies of Flu, they die of something caused by having Flu like Pneumonia.

Deaths, even if not caused by Covid, are always a measure of a Pandemic - if it cripples your healthcare system or weakens people then you can still get an excess in deaths for other reasons.  The next time this happens you want to know that data to prepare, but for now you need to have an idea to understand how to react in the healthcare system.  Lets say we see a rise in Cancer deaths - we may well get an idea that Covid is somehow impacting Cancer treatments - maybe the patients don't come in anymore, maybe the staff are too drained, maybe the staff are off sick etc.

[Bob's Orange]

Because often the cause of death is heart attack or other issues with organs which have failed due to contracting Covid, however the person no longer tests positive.

I read something recently from a lady whose father was still on a ventilator and fighting for his life more than 30 days after testing negative.

There’s not a perfect way of measuring, but clearly if someone is hit by a bus that’s unlikely to be Covid related

And I completely understand that if someone has or had Covid and it has caused the body to shut down in such a way that they die, for example by a heart attack then that should be a Covid death, 100%.

Am I right in saying the way they report deaths is simply ALL deaths of people that have died within 28 days of a positive test, or are they actually only reporting deaths by Covid or heavily caused by Covid? Because if it's just a capture all then that doesn't sound right, as you get the people that have died having been run over, or fallen down the stairs, murdered etc?

[BrightonRed]

I meant to ask about deaths actually. Why do they do reported deaths within 28 days of a positive test? Surely it's a completely inaccurate way of reporting the number of people that actually die of Covid, as the numbers will include people that had Covid and died of completely different causes. So if you get run over, or murdered within 28 days of a positive Covid test you are included in the stats? Why can't they just report the actual number of people who have died as a result of Covid?

I believe it boils down to the speed with which the data is available. The 'deaths within 28 days' statistic is available and updated on a daily basis on the Government dashboard, whilst the 'deaths where COVID was the underlying cause' data is published by the ONS with a delay of a couple of weeks.

People want instant information these days so seem happy to accept the quick but less informative statistic.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

For what it's worth in the week ending 14 January 2022 in England & Wales there were 1,070 deaths where COVID-19 was recorded as the underlying cause of death. By my calculation during the same period 1,601 deaths were recorded within 28 days of a positive test.

[Bob's Orange]

I believe it boils down to the speed with which the data is available. The 'deaths within 28 days' statistic is available and updated on a daily basis on the Government dashboard, whilst the 'deaths where COVID was the underlying cause' data is published by the ONS with a delay of a couple of weeks.

People want instant information these days so seem happy to accept the quick but less informative statistic.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest

For what it's worth in the week ending 14 January 2022 in England & Wales there were 1,070 deaths where COVID-19 was recorded as the underlying cause of death. By my calculation during the same period 1,601 deaths were recorded within 28 days of a positive test.

Thanks BR, that's very useful and I guess supports my thinking that the way they report currently is misleading.

[Broadbents Tackle]

What I don't understand currently (to add to the long list of things that have confused me about the pandemic), is why this time deaths and hospitalisations have increased, but the number of people on ventilators hasn't.

[RobertT]

There are a lot of people in hospital who incidentally have Covid - it's not the cause of them being in hospital.  That is different this time around because this is a milder but more transmissible variant.