Coronavirus

[horlock07]

Using Knowsley as an example, What’s the statistical significance of the rates going from 6 per 100k to 20 per 100k? 0.006% of the population being infected increasing to 0.02%. Is that an increase or is that just noise??

Its down to the safari park

[Berniman]

Anyone that would want to sit on a plane as soon as possible just to go on holiday is bonkers IMO..  I get it if it is to go see family etc..  but anyone clamoring to get away in the current climate is mad.  I am supposed to be going to Mexico in Oct, and I would prefer them to just cancel it now.. 

[pauld]

Anyone that would want to sit on a plane as soon as possible just to go on holiday is bonkers IMO..  I get it if it is to go see family etc..  but anyone clamoring to get away in the current climate is mad.  I am supposed to be going to Mexico in Oct, and I would prefer them to just cancel it now.. 

Completely agree Berni. Can't imagine anything more daft than cramming my family into a metal tube with 400 strangers all breathing recirculated air right now. Apart from possibly reopening pubs tomorrow

[moredonboy]

a 30k drop in total cases today and only 576 new cases, the lowest since the 17th March when testing was only picking up a fraction of cases

Info on pillar 1 and pillar 2 testing for the last two full weeks, Swindon has gone from 10.61 (15-21 June) to 6.76 (22-28 June) per 100,000 people

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-cases-rise-in-36-local-authorities-in-england-12019667

Can someone please explain how the total number of cases has fallen by any number let alone 30k in one day?
This number should never decline unless errors are being corrected or worse.

[horlock07]

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1278672584930758656?s=20

[pauld]

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1278672584930758656?s=20

Embedded version:



(and if you're wondering, the video is being projected onto Barnard Castle)

[STFC_Manc]

Can someone please explain how the total number of cases has fallen by any number let alone 30k in one day?
This number should never decline unless errors are being corrected or worse.

I would hazard a guess it is one of two things:
1) As people are usually tested twice, they have counted these as two people in some instances
2) People have been tested multiple times, maybe one in pillar 2 and then again in pillar 1

Either way these aren't new people, however I am probably just making stuff up

[pauld]

I would hazard a guess it is one of two things:
1) As people are usually tested twice, they have counted these as two people in some instances
2) People have been tested multiple times, maybe one in pillar 2 and then again in pillar 1

Either way these aren't new people, however I am probably just making stuff up

I suspect you're pretty much on the money. It's concerning because as we move into a "Test, Trace and Isolate" phase, having accurate data is crucial to enable local health authorities to stamp out local outbreaks. But the fact that community (i.e. outside hospital) testing is still massively centralised and chaotic is going to undermine that effort.

[moredonboy]

thanks STFC
sounds a reasonable assumption
they should explain this data far better and need to improve its quality quickly
for track and trace to be really effective 

[Abrahammer]

Completely agree Berni. Can't imagine anything more daft than cramming my family into a metal tube with 400 strangers all breathing recirculated air right now. Apart from possibly reopening pubs tomorrow

Infection rate is generally very low in reality, multiple decimal place low, it’s understandable that people want normality and refuse to live in fear anymore.

Be sensible but live your life is how I look at things now, the chances of catching it is very unlikely

[horlock07]

I would hazard a guess it is one of two things:
1) As people are usually tested twice, they have counted these as two people in some instances
2) People have been tested multiple times, maybe one in pillar 2 and then again in pillar 1

Either way these aren't new people, however I am probably just making stuff up

I thought it was common knowledge that they have been counting two tests on the same person as two separate tests, it follows the same theme as the PPE counting. Have they stopped doing that now?

I see once again he has been caught bullshitting in PMQ's as Councils have revealed that the agreements for data sharing to LA level are only being signed now as the contracts were deficient in some way previously.

[pauld]

I thought it was common knowledge that they have been counting two tests on the same person as two separate tests, it follows the same theme as the PPE counting. Have they stopped doing that now?

I see once again he has been caught bullshitting in PMQ's as Councils have revealed that the agreements for data sharing to LA level are only being signed now as the contracts were deficient in some way previously.

And lied about emergency testing in Leicester

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-johnson-not-telling-the-whole-story-on-leicester-testing

TBH it's got to the stage now where it would be more newsworthy if someone caught a govt minister accidentally telling the truth about COVID

[Chunkyhair]

I received testing pack in the post today (Mrs Chunkyhair is NHS worker).  With the one I have you have to stick the swab right down your throat, and then stick the same swab up your nose (can't wait - about 15 seconds each time and right down to tonsils and as far up the snozzer as you can bear)

So this test kit I assume is "one test".  But that is not to decry from the overall bollocks that they have been counting twice as most test are x2 nose and throat, and of course I now count as a test as it has been posted out, irrespective of whether or not I actually do it!

[Batch]

Anyone that would want to sit on a plane as soon as possible just to go on holiday is bonkers IMO..  I get it if it is to go see family etc..  but anyone clamoring to get away in the current climate is mad.  I am supposed to be going to Mexico in Oct, and I would prefer them to just cancel it now..  

and what if they don't cancel?

you need then to balance risk v writing off the cash.

that's the choice we've got (Tenerife, August).

the island is safe as is right now, it's the holiday makers I worry about

[horlock07]