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Author Topic: Mansfield town vs Swindon town Official Match Day Thread  (Read 12632 times)

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« Reply #225 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 13:59:11 »

If we did go with something like 73 needed then we've 21 games to pick up 40 points, it will still require the sort of run, of which we don't look capable.

Lies, lies and damned statistics, or something like that!

Our form over the last 7 games is 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat.  12 points in 7 games.  Over 21 games it gets you 36 points, only 4 shy of the target you just set.  Hardly suggesting it is something well beyond us at all.  Would we get those 4 points, no idea, but is not like converting relegation form is it?  I think Wellens came here thinking he had a chance of getting this team into the play offs.  If he misses, given that run we went on before he joined he maybe gets a pass, but if he achieves the goal his stock rises and he gets to tell everyone Oldham was circumstances beyond his control with more belief.

« Reply #226 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 14:15:34 »

Lies, damned lies and statistics - Benjamin Disraeli

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« Reply #227 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 16:23:07 »

Something tells me 70pts will be enough this season to get 7th. I'm basing it on how tight the points are at the "just-over-halfway" stage. I'm quite prepared to have this come back and bite me on the bum, even if it ends up being 71/72pts required.

I did say I'd revisit this "how are we shaping up" element in another 10 games. 1 more to go, my claim at the time was something like "if our form continues we should be around mid table battling with teams like Oldham and a chance at pushing for POs". That isn't far off but we've still one game to play.

The prospect of potentially being 10/11th come tomorrow afternoon and close the gap to 4pts on Exeter/FGR & Bury should be one to get us and the players motivated after several midnight Vermouths (us, not the players hopefully) and a new frontier of space reached by New Horizons to 2014 MU69. So New Year, New Horizons; maybe the Town can be inspired by their new managers way of playing and take 3pts off Exeter. It won't be easy but there seems to be unsettling activity at Exeter and that could affect the squad. Every little helps.

If we manage 3pts against Exeter that will leave us on 36pts with 60pts available. Okay we likely won't win all 20 but I would say on current form (and new additions) 10 is respectable and achievable. Add in 4 or 5 draws would put us on 70/71pts. That gives scope to lose 5 or 6 matches. It's going to be tight, hell we could just miss out on GD but it would be positive to take into the following season.

I don't want to get too far ahead though and will take another look when we hit 36 games. This should give us a more realistic idea of what is mathematically possible at that stage as well as combining other factors (such as current form, new signing impact, etc).

It's clear our recruitment in January is vital to whether we end up just above the dotted line or possibly even higher, and no Reg not the one between numbers 22 and 21  Wink

Happy New Year, hope it brings the Town 3pts and you all whatever you desire.

Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #228 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 17:23:42 »

Something tells me 70pts will be enough this season to get 7th.

It is possible... in 16/17 70 points was enough for Blackpool, and then PO success.... however they were on 36 points at the same time (25 games).  Although those 3 or 4 points don't look that significant atm... they are.  It's difficult to leap up the 7 or so places we'd need.  It's why I was saying we needed 4 points from Grimsby/Numb, because we had a bit of momentum, and needed to keep it going, we got a point.  Not doing that and then picking up just the 2 points on the road, drops us back.

 Winning games in an even league is difficult, which explains why we've only won 8 games, even Mansfield who've got a decent gaffer with a sizeable budget have only managed 10.

History tells us that Town sides usually fall away a bit after the window opens, especially Power time sides.... often like last season attrition, losing 2 centre halves, or window dealing weakening rather than strengthening, like 16/17
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