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Author Topic: Mansfield town vs Swindon town Official Match Day Thread  (Read 8830 times)
bamboonoshop


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« Reply #210 on: Saturday, December 29, 2018, 23:02:31 »

The only season where we've mounted a late run at the PO's was last season Macari in 88/89. Then we were 34 points after about 25 in 16th spot, but 6 points off 6th, with a game in hand.  It required a run of W 12 D 6 L3 to get that last PO slot.


That was Division 2 though not Division 4 (League 2). Div 4 that season you needed 72pts for 7th.

Looking at how tight the table is this season Reg, I'd say 76 pts will be more than enough needed to reach 7th.

Below is the last 20 seasons (small model I know), of pts obtained to acquire 7th place in the bottom division. I included points near to your 76 target to give relevance to those finishing positions too. Seems that 16 of the 20 times, that low 70s (73 or less) has been enough to claim 7th. Thrice a bit extra was needed from mid 70s (74-77) with 2003, 2015 & 2017 needing 74, 75 & 75 respectively but still below the desired 76pts. Just once in the last 20 years has a team needed more than 76 and that came in 2007 with 78pts needed.

Looking further it seems that about 75% of the time, 76pts would give a very comfortable and rosy 5th or 4th place. With low 70s being the common modal range, to achieve 7th place. 71 and 72 appearing most often (5 times each) and 70pts or less has achieved 7th place 6 times, in this model.

2017 - 75
2016 - 70 (77 4th)
2015 - 75
2014 - 71
2013 - 71 (76 4th)
2012 - 69 (76 4th, 78 3rd)
2011 - 72 (77 6th)
2010 - 68 (73 5th, 79 4th)
2009 - 72 (73 4th)
2008 - 69 (75 5th, 78 3rd)
2007 - 78
2006 - 71 (74 5th)
2005 - 66 (72 5th, 78 4th)
2004 - 72 (75 5th, 78 4th)
2003 - 74 (75 5th)
2002 - 70 (74 4th)
2001 - 71 (79 3rd)
2000 - 72 (77 4th)
1999 - 72 (78 5th)
1998 - 71 (74 4th)

Of course, I'm not saying that we will definitely do it. We might but possibly adjust your 76pt marker to something like 72pts because it looks like it'll be a tight one Reg. Unless you're saying we'll finish 4th/5th?  Hmmm
« Last Edit: Saturday, December 29, 2018, 23:14:37 by bamboonoshoe » Logged

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« Reply #211 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 01:47:11 »

 Good to see a bit of analysis, but I'm not sure of your data, surely 07 needing 78 points for 7th is wrong, and 66 points for 05 is an error.

 Yes, 88/89 was in Div 2, but we had a good side, and it was difficult due to the standard of opposition... of the 3 games lost 2 were v Chelsea and Man City.

 It isn't easy to win games.... if we could beat Exeter, it might prove significant, like the last time we beat them in the league at the CG in 85
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« Reply #212 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 01:52:27 »

Good to see us unbeaten against Clitcroft.
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« Reply #213 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 09:39:59 »

How very dare you challenge my musings with facts...

It's all hindsight, isn't it. The only transfer that resulted in me rolling my eyes was Islam Feruz (who probably came in on a 'you can have Colkett and Dabo if you take Feruz' deal)

Pre-2014/15 - Power's contacts supplied us with a great link-up with Spurs. Oh how we (a lot of us) scoffed.

2015:

Town were W9 D1 L3 in L1 between 01/1 to 01/02 and only out of the automatic places by goal difference.

John Swift came in to accommodate a gap in midfield after Yaser and Mass went off to become big time in AFC. It was also probably too much, too soon for Jermaine Hylton.

Power/Cooper had followed Bristol City who did similar by bringing in two loan players but had a stronger squad overall.

We should have copied Karl Robinson at MKD by flooding the squad with loanees to prepare for all eventualities. I think MKD ended the season with 8 or 9 loan players this included keeping a hold of Dele Alli until the Summer (we only added Ricketts in March).

Preston brought in Sam Johnstone, Dan Johnson, Callum Robinson and Sylvan Ebanks-Blake.

Ultimately, Power took a gamble and it didn't work out.

2016:

Doughty and Sendles-White arrived in January.

Power probably didn't back Town due to it being a dead rubber of a campaign. Not defending him on that but not overly criticising either. There was no way that we could have replaced those who had departed the summer before.

2017:

Town sleepwalk into the abyss, flooding the squad with loan players who weren't up to the, ahem, 'realities' of winning or losing unlike the squad players Robinson brought in for MKD in 2015...

Power tried to salvage. Contacts/scouts/network let us all down. Big time.

2018:

Town were largely mismanaged by Flitcroft and Brown. A Play-Off place should have been achieved.

Power gave the keys to Flitcroft and it failed. It's probable that we've been better when Power has been more involved with the transfer element. That doesn't mean that he's a superstar at it either.

It's been really quite grim from the moment Nathan Thompson limped off in the 5-5 or Andrew Madley started the Play-Off Final in 2015. Depending on your view point.
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« Reply #214 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 10:52:45 »

Well I think we played quite well, we need to sign Sid at least on loan till the end of the season but a perm would be brilliant.

We need a better target man or a goalscorer, both if possible, the need for a target man would not be as great if Bayo was more consistant but a goalscorer is still badly needed as I and others intimated before the season started and we still do IMO.

We need a left back, similar to Hussey, who can defend and attack.

I think Power will have seen enough in Wellens so far to invest some money in new signings which we badly need, I feel we could offload Smith, Richards, McGlashan, Lancashire, Robertson and maybe Iandolo (out on loan) and free up wages for replacements. I also think that Toums if he gets fit will be a massive asset but if he doesn't fit with Wellens plans then maybe he could be offloaded too, be a shame as I think he has class when fit.

Mansfield offered very little against us yesterday and we could easily have claimed the win with better finishing, and also much better defending by Town.

If Walker leaves them in January for a loan to a higher league they will struggle to stay where they are in the league and then that fucks up Mingecrofts season.
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« Reply #215 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 11:44:11 »

A few views from Mansfield fans....

Quote
Swindon had done their homework very well

Swindon's 3 up front tactic worked well for them, but that Stags weren't entirely at the races.

I thought that Swindon had a great fitness level and kept their plan going almost to the end. Probably the most effective side we've played since Exeter.

Good point overall, Swindon definitely worked out how to stop our threats which worryingly left us toothless.

Swindon pressed high and forced the errors from everybody, they didn't give our defence one second to compose themselves with the ball.

Swindon had done their homework - they closed our back 3 down and stopped us taking quick free kicks and were generally up for it.

Swindon's plan of slowing down our free kicks and diving like a Stuka with a seized engine worked like a charm in breaking up play.

In the game I thought Swindon did a great job of frustrating us, we got more of the ball in the second half as they may have tired but they kept their shape well off the ball leading to us struggling to create many chances and looked a low quality game as a result.
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It's a grand old team to play for, It's a grand old team to see, And if you know your history, It's enough to make your heart go whoa-oh, We don't care what the other teams say, What the hell do we care, For we only know that there's gonna be a show, And the Swindon Town will be there....
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« Reply #216 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 12:24:33 »

Swindon dived more than Captain Nemo was my favourite quote  Smiley
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« Reply #217 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 14:20:02 »

Swindon dived more than Captain Nemo was my favourite quote  Smiley
On a previous page one of their fans called Swindon - the land that time forgot, forgot.
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It's a grand old team to play for, It's a grand old team to see, And if you know your history, It's enough to make your heart go whoa-oh, We don't care what the other teams say, What the hell do we care, For we only know that there's gonna be a show, And the Swindon Town will be there....
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« Reply #218 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 15:35:25 »

My favourite.

Swindon's plan of slowing down our free kicks and diving like a Stuka with a seized engine worked like a charm in breaking up play.
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« Reply #219 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 16:01:21 »

On a previous page one of their fans called Swindon - the land that time forgot, forgot.

At least Swindon is memorable and been heard of Smiley
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« Reply #220 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 16:36:22 »

At least Swindon is memorable and been heard of Smiley
My thoughts exactly.
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« Reply #221 on: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 22:12:54 »

Good to see a bit of analysis, but I'm not sure of your data, surely 07 needing 78 points for 7th is wrong, and 66 points for 05 is an error.

 Yes, 88/89 was in Div 2, but we had a good side, and it was difficult due to the standard of opposition... of the 3 games lost 2 were v Chelsea and Man City.

 It isn't easy to win games.... if we could beat Exeter, it might prove significant, like the last time we beat them in the league at the CG in 85

Nope  Smiley in 2007/08 Wycombe finished 7th on 78pts. That top 7 ended;

MKD   97
Pboro  92
Hford  88
Sport  82
Rdale  80
Darlo  78
WycW 78

The rest were miles away with Chesterfield finishing 8th on 69pts. Also relegation was only 42pts going to none other than Mansfield. Chester finished way above that line on 47pts.

Also no Smiley 2005/06 Lincoln finished 7th on 66pts. That top 7 was;

Carlisle  86
Nhants  83
LeytnO  81
Grimsb  78
Cheltn   72
WycW   71
Lincoln  66

Relegation suffered on 49pts to another team of yellow affection, was good old Oxford. Stockport and 3 others survived on 52pts while another 4 only finished on 54pts.
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« Reply #222 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 00:58:35 »

At least Swindon is memorable and been heard of Smiley

We went on a wine tour and the Aussie tour guide had heard of Swindon. He was a big fan of the Office.

I told him here is more whine than wine in Swindon.
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« Reply #223 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 08:43:16 »

Nope  Smiley in 2007/08 Wycombe finished 7th on 78pts. That top 7 ended;

MKD   97
Pboro  92
Hford  88
Sport  82
Rdale  80
Darlo  78
WycW 78

The rest were miles away with Chesterfield finishing 8th on 69pts. Also relegation was only 42pts going to none other than Mansfield. Chester finished way above that line on 47pts.

Also no Smiley 2005/06 Lincoln finished 7th on 66pts. That top 7 was;

Carlisle  86
Nhants  83
LeytnO  81
Grimsb  78
Cheltn   72
WycW   71
Lincoln  66

Relegation suffered on 49pts to another team of yellow affection, was good old Oxford. Stockport and 3 others survived on 52pts while another 4 only finished on 54pts.

So wrong then, the finish in 07 quoted originally was 08, and the 05 finish was in 06. Good idea though, it's easy enough to make mistakes, after all it's the TEF not a book for publishing.

OK, let's overlook the dating error, as it doesn't affect the points totals.... agree that early 70's tend to be about right for 7th spot in Div 4.  I've never quite managed to work out what (statistically) causes the outliers tending between 66 and 78. I've always assumed that it's something like a couple of teams who beat everybody, or a couple who lose to everybody, rather than what seems to be happening this season lots of draws, but it's guesswoirk rather than maths.

If we did go with something like 73 needed then we've 21 games to pick up 40 points, it will still require the sort of run, of which we don't look capable.

Personally I've come to hate the PO's, we've never been in the Div 4 variety..... imagine getting to Wembley and facing FGR, with a crowd of about 25 000.... in many ways I'd prefer, building a squad ready for a proper tilt at auto next season.
« Last Edit: Monday, December 31, 2018, 10:43:35 by Reg Smeeton » Logged
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« Reply #224 on: Monday, December 31, 2018, 10:12:45 »

Nice try Bamboo, we feel your pain. Hopefully you won’t beat yourself up over it.
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