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Author Topic: New beginnings - 25% Truth, 80% Bollocks  (Read 1122692 times)
RobertT

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« Reply #2985 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 13:27:17 »

Only just - go see their financial losses in previous years.  They have just about managed it by the transfer dealings they do, which is the ultimate aim.  But it has taken some real risk and financial backing upfront to get there.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2986 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 13:28:16 »

"Losses before player sales have totalled £197 million since 2013. However Brentford's model has generated £141 million of player-sale profits"
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #2987 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 13:37:29 »

What's the term, "speculate to accumulate"?

It's hugely challenging to do this and many clubs are in deep financial shit for trying. Fair play to Brentford and Brighton for going from paupers to eating with the fat cats at the King's table, many won't.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #2988 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 14:17:43 »

It’s not the scale, though, it’s the model. What needs pondering is whether it can work at our basement level.

Is a non league or ex-academy player a bigger punt for us than, say, Brighton and/or Brentford paying for lower league EFL players. Is the risk bigger for us?

By risk I mean the ‘punts’ coming good.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2989 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 14:39:02 »

That isn't what Brentford were doing though, is it?  Ivan Toney for example, cost them 5m from Peterborough, to replace Watkins (sold for 33m) who they purchased for a couple of million (based on reports).

They've taken some very calculated gambles, but not low cost ones.  They were not taking cast offs, or maybe's.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2990 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 14:44:26 »

I would say someone like Khan fits the bill at our level - I can understand that one if we were to do the project correctly.  A well regarded lower level player who maybe can make the step-up - identified by some data to show he'd be OK (50%+ probability).

Peterborough have been good at playing the transfer market for forwards.  They've seemingly narrowed it down to the position that has highest returns, rather than the entire squad.  I presume they have some misses we do not read about, but they know one good striker can make a mint.  Our problem seems to have been to do this for every position bar GK, in one season.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #2991 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 14:47:32 »

That isn't what Brentford were doing though, is it?  Ivan Toney for example, cost them 5m from Peterborough, to replace Watkins (sold for 33m) who they purchased for a couple of million (based on reports).

They've taken some very calculated gambles, but not low cost ones.  They were not taking cast offs, or maybe's.
But that was what I was asking. Is the risk of a player turning out well higher for us trawling non league and ex-academies or Brentford buying established, but lower league, EFL players. I don’t mean financial risk but the risk of the recruitment becoming a shit show.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2992 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 14:50:40 »

Yes, we are risking on unproven talent by and large.  Khan is the exception, maybe Hutton.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2993 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 14:52:13 »

Brentford have also signed experienced talent from less fashionable markets.
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DMC

« Reply #2994 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 15:13:56 »

Brentford have also signed experienced talent from less fashionable markets.
So have we. I don't think comparing us in league 2 to them signing Toney for 5m is fair. What were the calibre of signings they were making in league 1.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2995 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 16:15:29 »

The season they got promoted from League One they purchased Will Grigg it looks like, for aorund the 400k mark.

They then spent 4m or so in the first season in the Championship.

Some of the players mean nothing to me so far back, but they did operate at a 5m and 4m loss for each of the two seasons leading up to their promotion to the Championship.  Hardly running a sustainable approach back then

Also, I think it wasn't really until 2015 or so that they marched the new drumbeat - there is a real shift in their approach at that point on the transfer spending and what types of players.  The lower league rise is more about spending on wages it looks like - their Operating costs were close to 8m.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2996 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 16:29:40 »

So have we. I don't think comparing us in league 2 to them signing Toney for 5m is fair. What were the calibre of signings they were making in league 1.

Many of the free transfers they were picking up carried experience as well - J Douglas and A McCormack being to examples pre their rise.
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RobertT

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« Reply #2997 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 16:33:45 »

To relate that to us this season.

You'd probably have a handful, or less, of Khan type signings.
A few like Lavinier.
The bulk would be like Austin - experience, been there and done it.  Likely got promotion from this level in recent history or have many league games under their belts.  That would be your spine.  You hope some of the lower league gambles, maybe for fees, pay off in the long run and the younger talent from the Premier League has a decent hit rate into players that can make the grade.

If only two or three players are worth money a year later, you paid for it.  You do not need everyone to hit, but you should not risk 30 odd players going that way.  23 of our current squad signed this season and Austin aside, the number of EFL games under their belts is minimal.
« Last Edit: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 16:36:20 by RobertT » Logged
Jimmy HaveHave

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« Reply #2998 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 16:42:23 »

Good post Robert.
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Bogus Dave
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« Reply #2999 on: Wednesday, March 29, 2023, 17:02:20 »

Peterborough are probably a more applicable, more recent example of Robs point

Likes of Sikiri Dembele and Clarke-Harris were the successful ‘punts for profit’ when they got promoted, but the squad was anchored by a centre back/goalkeeper trio with over 600 appearances between them
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