Coronavirus

[RobertT]

How many have actually had their initial vaccination now?

I know JQ keeps on bangin on about 18-30 year olds but I read something the other day saying that they are now offering the vaccines to non adults too.

Got to be at around 40m with the first jab? Likely half the population are fully jabbed on top I'd guess? Pretty much got to be getting close to all adults vaccinated (or a least offered/invited) at least once.

It's the second dose that is critical for the final stage I think.  The first dose was more effective against the original variants and getting a quick start broke the back of the original rate of infection from January.  Now it's the second dose that will break the back of the current infection rate I think.  Israel is the canary in the mine, they got that second dose to over 50% of total population quickly thanks to Pfizer offering them a deal.  The UK is a couple of weeks away from hitting that same mark, maybe a little less.

Assuming the same impact occurs, that second dose will begin to reduce the ability of the virus to replicate.   The recent increase is a result of opening up - but Bolton showed it's likely a quick surge as people spread it, but the surge testing combined with vaccination and previous infection means it quickly starts to hit a brick wall.  Complete vaccination appears to have the same impact as a lockdown - so the more people vaccinated, the bigger the impact on replication.

For those reasons, I think a few weeks delay would be good.

[Jimmy HaveHave]

It's the second dose that is critical for the final stage I think.  The first dose was more effective against the original variants and getting a quick start broke the back of the original rate of infection from January.  Now it's the second dose that will break the back of the current infection rate I think.  Israel is the canary in the mine, they got that second dose to over 50% of total population quickly thanks to Pfizer offering them a deal.  The UK is a couple of weeks away from hitting that same mark, maybe a little less.

Assuming the same impact occurs, that second dose will begin to reduce the ability of the virus to replicate.   The recent increase is a result of opening up - but Bolton showed it's likely a quick surge as people spread it, but the surge testing combined with vaccination and previous infection means it quickly starts to hit a brick wall.  Complete vaccination appears to have the same impact as a lockdown - so the more people vaccinated, the bigger the impact on replication.

For those reasons, I think a few weeks delay would be good.

I keep banging on about the 18-30 year olds because that's the age that will socially be meeting in large numbers plus they Mmmm will be the ones carrying the virus if they haven't even had one of the vaccines. Logic really

[BambooToTheFuture]

I keep banging on about the 18-30 year olds because that's the age that will socially be meeting in large numbers plus they Mmmm will be the ones carrying the virus if they haven't even had one of the vaccines. Logic really

Quoted the wrong dude I think JQ...but regardless of having vaccine or not...anyone can still be a carrier of covid-19. There's not enough data yet on whether the vaccine prevents someone getting and carrying/spreading covid. I'm sure someone else said this to you earlier fella 

[BambooToTheFuture]

For those reasons, I think a few weeks delay would be good.

Agree with the rest your had posted but in the words of Reg "for good housekeeping", I trimmed it down.

Yep, what is three weeks to a month in the grand scheme of things?

Answer: around 26 days *boom tish*

[Jimmy HaveHave]

Quoted the wrong dude I think JQ...but regardless of having vaccine or not...anyone can still be a carrier of covid-19. There's not enough data yet on whether the vaccine prevents someone getting and carrying/spreading covid. I'm sure someone else said this to you earlier fella 

I'm pretty sure a few months ago the numbers dropped significantly once the first vaccines were rolled so I would expect them to drop even more one the 18-30 year olds have theirs. Barking on or not😀

[BambooToTheFuture]

I'm pretty sure a few months ago the numbers dropped significantly once the first vaccines were rolled so I would expect them to drop even more one the 18-30 year olds have theirs. Barking on or not😀

For sure, but everyone could still be carrying the virus. The major difference is by that stage it will be largely irrelevant to joe public, as we'll all be protected and "free" again.

Although I'm sure the scientists and lab techs will want to figure out if there is a solution, as in how to eradicate the virus rather than just live with it (albeit protected). They might never get there in our lifetime but it'd be nice to see one day world science be able to release a statement saying they have done so (along with many other viruses, diseases, infections etc)

[The Grim Reaper]

Although I'm sure the scientists and lab techs will want to figure out if there is a solution, as in how to eradicate the virus rather than just live with it (albeit protected).

Like with the common cold or influenza? 🤔

[Posh Red]

Just had my second jab, was quite amusing that there were two queues as I approached and it became quite obvious that one was for people having their first jab (young people) and those having their second (old gits like me 😄)

[Jimmy HaveHave]

Has my second last week😀

[Batch]

got mine on 22nd, which is nice

[RobertT]

Like with the common cold or influenza? 🤔

The former doesn't cause enough impact to invest the necessary money, the latter has vaccines created every year in order to keep deaths and Healthcare impact to a minimum.  I'd wager the long term output here is a combined vaccine with Flu every year for those at risk, once the level of infection is under control.  Flu is a top underlying cause of death every year, even with vaccines in play.  Hopefully these past 18 months or so will cause more people to get their Flu vaccine when available as well (it's been quite interesting to see the world basically adopt South East Asian "common sense" during a normal flu season for them, or when they are ill).

[Jimmy HaveHave]

Only small numbers at the moment but still a worrying statistic

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9681613/Study-shows-29-people-died-catching-new-strain-vaccinations.html

[RobertT]

Not really, non of them are 100% effective.  People with underlying conditions are at risk even after vaccination, just the risk is much lower.  People will die of something, the question is whether this has managed to reduce that risk sufficiently.  Israel and now the UK seem to be showing (for now) that the death rate can be cut massively through vaccination.

[Jimmy HaveHave]

I agree that's what I suggested they vacinate the 18-30 age group before opening the country up.

[tans]

Kuenssberg reporting 4 week delay from ‘government sources’