sigh. slightly OT.
our remaining games (courtesy Alan Wilson, FB):
Home
Oxford United
Gillingham
Ipswich Town
Peterborough United
Portsmouth
Blackpool
Away
Wigan Athletic
Bristol Rovers
Burton Albion
AFC Wimbledon
Rochdale
Franchise
Fleetwood Town
our home and away form, bottom of the league with 9 points (next worse 13 points)
https://www.soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=england3What it fails to show in some way is Town have done well against the shittest (and some of the better) teams in the division. They should have enough to beat Wigan, Wovvers, Rochdale and Original Dons.
Points from any of the others will be a bonus (like Crewe and Lincoln). The way I see or expect Town's results to pan out would be;
Home
Draw - Oxford United
Nowt - Gillingham
Nowt (outside point chance) - Ipswich Town
Nowt (outside point chance) - Peterborough United
Nowt - Portsmouth
Nowt - Blackpool
Away
Win - Wigan Athletic
Win - Bristol Rovers
Nowt - Burton Albion
Win - AFC Wimbledon
Win - Rochdale
Possible Draw - Franchise
Hot/Cold, will say Nowt - Fleetwood Town
13pts in the "getting close to certain" category. 16pts in the "a decent possibility" category. So 44pts or 47pts. I reckon either just about keeps Town up in this shitty season (I said 43pts to 45pts previously). Have to take into account that a lot of teams at the bottom are playing each other, so points WILL be dropped. The main indicator is as long as Town do what they have done against most of the bottom sides and win/pick up points it won't matter.
Let's take a look at the updated last five form for the bottom 6 (since Burton are rampant at present and only Sunderland better their last five (13pts to Burton's 12pts sigh) games):
N' hants - L-D-L-W-W = 7pts (1.4PPG) ~ G/L 13
Swindon - W-D-W-L-L = 7pts (1.4PPG) ~ G/L 13
===============================
Wigan A - L-W-L-L-W = 6pts (1.2PPG) ~ G/L 13
Wombles - L-W-L-D-D = 5pts (1.0PPG) ~ G/L 15
B Rovers - L-L-W-L-L = 3pts (0.6PPG) ~ G/L 14
Rochdale - D-D-L-L-L = 2pts (0.4PPG) ~ G/L 13
Using games left (G/L) and last 5 form then this would have those teams accrue:
N' hants - 18.2
Swindon - 18.2
===========
Wigan A - 15.6
Wombles - 15.0
B Rovers - 8.4
Rochdale - 5.2
This "form" indicates Town might go and get an extra couple of points somewhere (I don't think they will). Maybe Fleetwood and one of the home games?! Obviously you can't have 0.2 or 0.6pts so I will round them down or up accordingly. With the current points on the board, the points added in from above, this is what the projected bottom (projected bottom
) could look like come the end of the season;
N' hants - 50pts
Swindon - 49pts
===========
Wigan A - 46pts
Wombles - 45pts
B Rovers - 38pts
Rochdale - 33pts
I think it will be lower than that all round, possibly by upto 3pts. Could quite easily seeing both Wigan and Town both being on 45/46pts going into the last game of the season, and Northampton on 46/47pts. It's going to come down to the last day - isn't it?