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horlock07

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« Reply #4950 on: Tuesday, June 30, 2020, 15:44:03 »

Swindon's numbers have always looked very odd.  The number of deaths was around 100 at some point with only 400 confirmed cases - which makes no sense whatsoever.  That reads to me as if they are only testing people sick enough to be hospitalised in Swindon. 

Lack of consistency in testing skews everything, see the start of the crisis up here as our figures were very high because MBHT were testing way beyond the PHE guidelines (hospital staff, care home staff etc) likewise apparently testing in Leicester is high.
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STFC_Manc

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« Reply #4951 on: Tuesday, June 30, 2020, 19:35:10 »

Swindon's numbers have always looked very odd.  The number of deaths was around 100 at some point with only 400 confirmed cases - which makes no sense whatsoever.  That reads to me as if they are only testing people sick enough to be hospitalised in Swindon. 

The 400 is only from pillar 1 testing I believe, the PHE/hospital tests.  I'm not sure why they can't provide the overall figures?!
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pauld

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« Reply #4952 on: Tuesday, June 30, 2020, 20:03:06 »

The 400 is only from pillar 1 testing I believe, the PHE/hospital tests.  I'm not sure why they can't provide the overall figures?!
Not sure if this applies for Swindon, but the Public Health director from Leicester was on the radio yesterday saying that govt have been quite hit and miss in getting data out to the local PH authorities which has complicated the process of taking efforts locally to clamp down on flare-ups. May be the same kind of issue? i.e. that Swindon only have the figures from testing in GWH?
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STFC_Manc

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« Reply #4953 on: Tuesday, June 30, 2020, 20:15:50 »

Not sure if this applies for Swindon, but the Public Health director from Leicester was on the radio yesterday saying that govt have been quite hit and miss in getting data out to the local PH authorities which has complicated the process of taking efforts locally to clamp down on flare-ups. May be the same kind of issue? i.e. that Swindon only have the figures from testing in GWH?

It is across the board, we as the public only see the PHE detail.  If you look at the link below, it states 'Public Health England release a daily update on how many confirmed cases of coronavirus there are in each English local authority.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/30/coronavirus-cases-postcode-uk-area-near-me/
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horlock07

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« Reply #4954 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 09:26:47 »

Oh FFS why can't they just be bloody honest.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1277960112691273728.html
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Tails

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« Reply #4955 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 10:20:36 »

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/us-buys-almost-entire-world-021200285.html

Nice.
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pauld

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« Reply #4956 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 10:23:51 »

It is across the board, we as the public only see the PHE detail.  If you look at the link below, it states 'Public Health England release a daily update on how many confirmed cases of coronavirus there are in each English local authority.'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/30/coronavirus-cases-postcode-uk-area-near-me/
It's not just the public. LHAs and local public health directors are also struggling to see the data which is making it very difficult for them to take timely action to suppress local outbreaks. Lots of public health professionals warned against precisely this kind of problem with the govt's centralised approach to non-hospital testing and collating data. The chaotic nature of the data collection hasn't helped with that. Another predicted and avoidable self-inflicted problem in the govt's ongoing failure to tackle COVID

https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a

EDIT and see also horlock's post two up from this, the twitter thread he cites details the same issue as the FT article I posted
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horlock07

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« Reply #4957 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 11:12:21 »

Things are not being helped by the reporting.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594

Wiltshire is on that list due to it having a recent weekly increase of new cases in the county of 300%. However this actually equates to just an increase from one to four new cases.
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Thingie

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« Reply #4958 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 12:32:44 »

yeah, the overreaction to the currently stable infection rate is staggering clickbait.
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donkey
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« Reply #4959 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 12:52:27 »

So Leicester City can break the quarantine.  Cummings Amendment, I guess.
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donkey tells the truth

I headed the ball.

eeeeeeeeeeeeeee-aaaaaaaawwwwwww
horlock07

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« Reply #4960 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 13:23:56 »

yeah, the overreaction to the currently stable infection rate is staggering clickbait.

The problem is what figures are actually being used as there seem to be two sources (Pillar 1 and Pillar 2) and as the government are not being entirely transparent its all a bloody mess, for a change.

See Leicester, the spike is mainly Pillar 2 which the government doesn't make public (a decision make at Ministerial level according to PHE) and they didn't tell the local bodies about until very recently.



« Last Edit: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 13:31:18 by horlock07 » Logged
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Thingie

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« Reply #4961 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 13:48:50 »

So according to
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-data-methodology/covid-19-testing-data-methodology-note

Quote
Pillar 1: swab testing in Public Health England (PHE) labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers

Pillar 2: swab testing for the wider population, as set out in government guidance

So what does "clinical need" mean. Does that include those that request a test due to symptoms?

If so, where the bloody hell are the pillar 2  tests coming from.

And how many tests in each category?
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horlock07

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« Reply #4962 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 14:00:06 »

AIUI

Pillar 1 is tests in hospitals. This is published.
Pillar 2 is tests from drive through centres and home testing kits done by commercial labs. This is not made public.

As for numbers I don't think anyone knows as they stopped publishing the numbers and Mancock has admitted that they don't have a clue how many tests are being done. Cynically I would suggest its way below the targets as if it wasn't they would be publishing the figures.
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Thingie

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« Reply #4963 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 14:33:03 »

Wow. That had completely passed me by. How can they not publish at least % of test positive?

Wonder if its also to do with speed of reporting making a lag that would not reflect the true state.   Then again, why lock down Leicester if Pillar 2 isn't 'current'.

I share your cynacism.

Fucking shambles.
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horlock07

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« Reply #4964 on: Wednesday, July 1, 2020, 15:03:49 »

Wow. That had completely passed me by. How can they not publish at least % of test positive?

Wonder if its also to do with speed of reporting making a lag that would not reflect the true state.   Then again, why lock down Leicester if Pillar 2 isn't 'current'.

I share your cynacism.

Fucking shambles.

https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1278290410926997510?s=20
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