Coronavirus

[Jimmy Quinn]

I'd say as a gross metric the numbers show we aren't doing particularly well.

However, the figures are woolly; France didn't count deaths in community and is sporadic on care homes, Italy haven't released last months excess death figures (which are about 60% higher than just the covid deaths) and they didn't include care homes either, Spain doesn't yet include care homes, different reporting methods are used and different testing regimes means some are 'assumed covid' and others don't assume. [We assume +ve in many more cases].

If we look at it from a propagation point of view, I think population density puts us at a disadvantage [something to bear in mind for the future...]; France has the same population but twice the space; in a way the population is already slightly 'socially distanced' on a macro-scale

Good post  .

Paris is denser than London...yes, but there is another factor - Paris has 2M, Berlin 3M, London 7M... More targets, squeezed closer together = high vulnerability to transmission.

Other factors such as smoking, age distribution, elderly cohabiting %age, rate of obesity etc will also play into it if we want a level playing field, but these I would say are more or less equitable.

Figure those factors in and we may still be found to be doing a poor job, however I genuinely think that we were more exposed and the differences are not quite as stark as first impressions would tell you.

[singingiiiffy]

On the Care Homes, the same problem has been seen here.  They have been left to fend for themselves as private entities and have largely failed because they have no idea how to.  As we see places reopening, has that lesson been learned?  Surely that is a fair question of current government competence?

think I saw that 85% of care homes are privately owned. they could definitely have done more.
my grandparents live in sheltered accommodation and there is zero corona management. no signs, no antibac, no structure on place for laundry rooms or visitors etc.

I rang management last week again as i was getting angry about it and they said they couldn't source anything so I ordered it for them that very minute and for 10 litres of alcohol gel for them to use.

[Batch]

I learnt something from Twitter today!

Matt Hancock looks like Hans Gruber from Allo allo, and Jeffrey Fairbrother from hi-de-hi.

it's obvious once seen

[Richie Wellen-Dowd]

I learnt something from Twitter today!

Matt Hancock looks like Hans Gruber from Allo allo, and Jeffrey Fairbrother from hi-de-hi.

it's obvious once seen

Hans Gruber was in Die Hard 

Or alternatively was a poster on here.

http://thetownend.com/index.php?action=profile;u=227

[pauld]

think I saw that 85% of care homes are privately owned. they could definitely have done more.

They certainly could. Probably needs govt to coordinate proactively though on a national scale, by providing advice, guidelines etc for what care homes should do, access to tests, access to a national PPE procurement scheme etc. I'm mentioning these thngs because they were all contained in the recommendations that came out of the Cygnus Exercise that predicted deaths on a massive scale, particularly in care homes. Govt didn't act on these recommendations.

[Batch]

Hubert Gruber, I meant Hubert!

[singingiiiffy]

They certainly could. Probably needs govt to coordinate proactively though on a national scale, by providing advice, guidelines etc for what care homes should do, access to tests, access to a national PPE procurement scheme etc. I'm mentioning these thngs because they were all contained in the recommendations that came out of the Cygnus Exercise that predicted deaths on a massive scale, particularly in care homes. Govt didn't act on these recommendations.

they don't need to be spoon fed everything. for a care home not to have an action plan or a risk assessment in place or even initiative to limit the spread of an illness is ridiculous.

[pauld]

they don't need to be spoon fed everything. for a care home not to have an action plan or a risk assessment in place or even initiative to limit the spread of an illness is ridiculous.

Well obviously. And if individual care homes didn't have those action plans in place for ordinary risks or outbreaks of (say) flu, they should be criticised/held accountable. But Black Swan events like global pandemics are the responsibility of govt. Individual care homes can't be expected to implement tests for a novel disease when it is the govt that is coordinating the national testing strategy (or not) for example. In the same way as it would be absurd to criticise individual GPs for not having a stock of tests ready to roll. That's why govt had a plan to deal with a global pandemic. That's why they ran a testing exercise to see how it would work in reality (Operation Cygnus). And failings were identified in that, which is fine, that's why you run exercises, in particular issues in relation to care homes were identified and recommendations were made to address those. And the govt didn't implement those recommendations, they didn't even shield care homes especially, and in fact it wasn't until months into the crisis that they announced testing was available for care home staff and residents, even though it quickly became clear many wouldn't be able to access it. It's criminally negligent.

[pauld]

96,000 tests done yesterday apparently. Assuming they weren't subject to last week's "It's in the post, guv, honest" fakery, that's finally showing some improvement. 2 months too late, but better late than never.

[STFC_Manc]

96,000 tests done yesterday apparently. Assuming they weren't subject to last week's "It's in the post, guv, honest" fakery, that's finally showing some improvement. 2 months too late, but better late than never.

I'm pretty sure that they will include the same "fakery" you mention. As that is the way they have decided to count the tests.

If you look at Germany they have used about 50% of the testing capacity the few times I have looked.

You would think until the track and trace capability is fully working that we wouldn't use all out capacity. 

I think they do need a better plan to use the capacity mind, as I do wonder how many people who aren't supposed to be tested have been tested.

[StfcRusty]

* Phew *

This is the good news you’ve all be waiting for
(Especially if you’ve just had a baby and your house is a mess ..)

In other news, maintenance payments for anyone with 6 kids or more have been scrapped.

[flammableBen]

* Phew *

This is the good news you’ve all be waiting for
(Especially if you’ve just had a baby and your house is a mess ..)

In other news, maintenance payments for anyone with 6 kids or more have been scrapped.

Does Boris officially have that many now?

[StfcRusty]

Does Boris officially have that many now?

I don’t know why you’re mentioning Boris. As if government policy would be introduced to benefit an elite group of people! Ridiculous!

[flammableBen]

I'm pretty sure that they will include the same "fakery" you mention. As that is the way they have decided to count the tests.

If you look at Germany they have used about 50% of the testing capacity the few times I have looked.

You would think until the track and trace capability is fully working that we wouldn't use all out capacity.  

I think they do need a better plan to use the capacity mind, as I do wonder how many people who aren't supposed to be tested have been tested.

"Fakery" is just fucking fakery when you change what you're counting on the last day you've got to hit your target.

[STFC_Manc]

"Fakery" is just fucking fakery when you change what you're counting on the last day you've got to hit your target.

Why I agree that it was playing with numbers, that was the agreed approach. They do decide the approach but it was set out from the start. 

So I'm not quite sure "fakery" is really the right way to define it.