the countdown to 52

[Benzel]

Plymouth are in dire form. Worse than us.

[pauld]

It might not Woolster. But I'm hoping against all that has gone before that we will hit form at the right time. Blind faith.

That's about all we've got left isn't it?

I've spent all season revising my hopes/expectations downwards. I'm now scraping the barrel with "probably won't finish bottom". And I'm resigned to the possibility of having to revisit that before Easter

[joteddyred]

Plymouth are in dire form. Worse than us.

The problem being is that Dagenham & Redbridge are on a reasonable run.  They've picked up 10 points out of the last 15 and have 4 games in hand.  If they win 2 of them, they're above us, which will still leave us in the relegation places even if Plymouth continue to freefall.  We're wholly reliant on the teams around us now, which is never a good thing.

[london_red]

was about to make a similar point. just had a look at the table and unless with the games in hand think Tranmere and Notts will be tough to catch. Looks like 2 out of us Plymouth and Daggers the most likely imo.

As mentioned earlier in this thread we've got them both in consecutive weeks coming up, really got to take 4 points minimum from those two or it'll really be a struggle.

[Batch]

The problem being is that Dagenham & Redbridge are on a reasonable run.  They've picked up 10 points out of the last 15 and have 4 games in hand.

They've peaked too early.

I'll be gutted to finish below the daggers. Not because of any sense of right, superiority or history. But because our budget should mean we have a miles better team. Actually I'm glad it doesn't work like that or we'd never have had our season in the sun.

[chalkies_shorts]

At the turn of the year I was working on the basis that Walsall and D&R were as good as down with Rovers and Plymouth on an even bigger downward spiral than us.
Now not only could we go down but we could even go down as bottom side. We are totally and royally in the shit.

[Berniman]

We're fucked!

[Batch]

The biggest problem lies at the CG.

http://www.footstats.co.uk/index.cfm?task=formguide

look at the home form from the last 6 games

[joteddyred]

Plymouth and Bristol Rovers have picked up exactly the same number of points from the last 6 games as us, which is 3.  Difference being they've managed to get a win rather than 3 draws (and we all know who Bristol Rover's was against). The other team who are on exactly the same run of results are Sheff Weds, although they've got games in hand and a bit of a cushion anyway.

Not sure what that tells us other than Plymouth and Bristol Rovers are equally shit, but have both managed to beat us this season.

[Ardiles]

Up to 1.4 points needed per game to reach 52 points.

Current points per game this season : 1
Points per game last 10 games: 0.6

Thinking a little more about the 1.4 points per game stat...

We have 15 games still to play, and would achieve 1.4 point per game average with a sequence of W-W-D-L-L, repeated three times.  That's how tall an order we are now facing.

To put it further in to perspective, the team who has most closely averaged 1.4 points per game so far over the course of this season is Leyton Orient (with 40 points from 28 games).  They are in 11th place and have a goal difference of +8 vs our -12.  If we are going to stay up, the change in our fortunes will need to be dramatic...and pretty much instant.  One or two more games, I think, before I stop kidding myself we can still do this.

[DiV]

Exeter City
Played: 29
Points: 38
Points Per Game: 1.31
Points Left Available: 51
Points Needed for 52: 14
Points Per Game Required: 0.82

Sheffield Wednesday
Played: 28
Points: 36
Points Per Game: 1.29
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 16
Points Per Game Required: 0.89

Brentford
Played: 29
Points: 36
Points Per Game: 1.24
Points Left Available: 51
Points Needed for 52: 16
Points Per Game Required: 0.94

Carlisle United
Played: 27
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.30
Points Left Available: 57
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.89

Tranmere Rovers
Played: 27
Points: 34
Points Per Game: 1.26
Points Left Available: 57
Points Needed for 52: 18
Points Per Game Required: 0.95

Yeovil Town
Played: 29
Points: 33
Points Per Game: 1.14
Points Left Available: 51
Points Needed for 52: 19
Points Per Game Required: 1.12

Plymouth Argyle
Played: 31
Points: 33
Points Per Game: 1.07
Points Left Available: 45
Points Needed for 52: 19
Points Per Game Required: 1.27

Notts County
Played: 26
Points: 32
Points Per Game: 1.23
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 20
Points Per Game Required: 1.00



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Swindon Town
Played: 31
Points: 31
Points Per Game: 1.00
Points Left Available: 45
Points Needed for 52: 21
Points Per Game Required: 1.40

Dagenham & Redbridge
Played : 27
Points: 28
Points Per Game: 1.04
Points Left Available: 57
Points Needed for 52: 24
Points Per Game Required: 1.26

Walsall
Played: 30
Points: 27
Points Per Game: 0.90
Points Left Available: 48
Points Required for 52: 25
Points Per Game Required: 1.56

Bristol Rovers
Played: 30
Points: 27
Points Per Game: 0.90
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed for 52: 25
Points Per Game Required: 1.56

[Batch]

We have 15 games still to play, and would achieve 1.4 point per game average with a sequence of W-W-D-L-L, repeated three times.  That's how tall an order we are now facing.

Jesus, really, w-w-d-l-l. Ouch.

Maybe the total will be significantly less than 52. Hopefully.
[url width=123 height=117]http://i93.photobucket.com/albums/l62/yorky_2006/clutchingstraws.jpg[/url]

[mrverve]

Oh bloody hell this countdown takes me back two years ago on the FF site.

We have to go and do what we did two years ago, I remember we lost away at Colchester on the Tuesday then to Leeds away on the Saturday. We were 4 points adrift at that stage then we beat Southend 3-0 on the Tuesday, beat Hereford at home on the Saturday then the following Tuesday went to Northampton and won 4-3 in a game where I was shitting myself towards the end. All of a sudden in 10 days we went from being 4 points adrift to being a couple of points clear with a much healthier goal difference.  

Also that year Northampton came from nowhere and got relegated after they had an abysmal last 7 games I think.

It normally happens, a team that looks relatively safe with 8-10 games to go then suddenly hits a bad run. I remember Sheffield Utd got relegated from the PL in 2007 after being 10 points clear at the end of March.

[DiV]

Aye, Brighton after the lost to us - looked absolutely dead and fucking buried that year as well.

[Samdy Gray]

...then the following Tuesday went to Northampton and won 4-3 in a game where I was shitting myself towards the end.

That game was immense. End to end stuff.

DRS even got his cock out.