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Author Topic: the countdown to 52  (Read 46171 times)
DiV
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Joseph McLaughlin




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« on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 07:14:39 »

Sheffield Wednesday
Played: 27
Points: 36
Points Per Game: 1.33
Points Left Available: 57
Points Needed for 52: 16
Points Per Game Required: 0.84

Carlisle United
Played: 26
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.35
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.85

Brentford
Played: 28
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.25
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.94

Exeter City
Played: 28
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.25
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.94

Yeovil Town
Played: 28
Points: 33
Points Per Game: 1.18
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 19
Points Per Game Required: 1.06

Plymouth Argyle
Played: 30
Points: 33
Points Per Game: 1.10
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed for 52: 19
Points Per Game Required: 1.19

Notts County
Played: 25
Points: 32
Points Per Game: 1.28
Points Left Available: 63
Points Needed for 52: 20
Points Per Game Required: 0.95

Tranmere Rovers
Played: 26
Points: 31
Points Per Game: 1.19
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 21
Points Per Game Required: 1.05

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Swindon Town
Played: 30
Points: 31
Points Per Game: 1.03
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed for 52: 21
Points Per Game Required: 1.31

Walsall
Played: 29
Points: 27
Points Per Game: 0.93
Points Left Available: 51
Points Required for 52: 25
Points Per Game Required: 1.47

Bristol Rovers
Played: 29
Points: 27
Points Per Game: 0.93
Points Left Available: 51
Points Needed for 52: 25
Points Per Game Required: 1.47

Dagenham & Redbridge
Played : 26
Points: 25
Points Per Game: 0.96
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 27
Points Per Game Required: 1.35


Dont think any of that will tell us anything we didnt already know.

The current bottom 4 and Plymouth are the only 5 times currently not on track to make it to 52 points. Plymouth need to improve their PPG by 0.09, Swindon need to improve by 0.28, Walsall and Rovers by 0.54 and Daggers by 0.39.

I've only included the current bottom half of the table but Colchester currently sit 10th with only 38 points. A decent run of form will see a team shoot up the table.

Walsall have at least improved recently, if their run continues through another 3/4/5 games and they could be above water. Us and Plymouth obviously played the most but some teams games in hand must fall against each other.

I'll keep this updated maybe add a form guide and remaining fixtures.

If we win all our remaining games we will get to 79 points which would be 3 less than last season! The average amount of points for 6th place is 76 points (lowest 71, highest 81) so for those deluded happy clappers amongst us (I'm looking at you Wilson!) we can still make the play offs!

If you dont like this thread, dont see the point blah blah blah dont bother reading it or posting in it, thanks
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #1 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 07:18:37 »

  Smiley
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RedRag

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« Reply #2 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 07:38:46 »

Good post

An updated version ought to be on our dressing room door till we do reach 76 points (avg 6th place).

We may be able to take it down with a game to spare.

Easy.
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london_red

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« Reply #3 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 08:48:44 »

Nice post DV, shows the size of the task ahead.

Just checked the fixtures, and looks like the start of March when we've got Walsall (H), Plymouth (A), and Daggers (H) in consecutive games is going to be crucial.
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Bogus Dave
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« Reply #4 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 08:51:23 »

You gonna put this on football forums dv?
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leefer

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« Reply #5 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 09:16:01 »

Sheffield Wednesday
Played: 27
Points: 36
Points Per Game: 1.33
Points Left Available: 57
Points Needed for 52: 16
Points Per Game Required: 0.84

Carlisle United
Played: 26
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.35
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.85

Brentford
Played: 28
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.25
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.94

Exeter City
Played: 28
Points: 35
Points Per Game: 1.25
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 17
Points Per Game Required: 0.94

Yeovil Town
Played: 28
Points: 33
Points Per Game: 1.18
Points Left Available: 54
Points Needed for 52: 19
Points Per Game Required: 1.06

Plymouth Argyle
Played: 30
Points: 33
Points Per Game: 1.10
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed for 52: 19
Points Per Game Required: 1.19

Notts County
Played: 25
Points: 32
Points Per Game: 1.28
Points Left Available: 63
Points Needed for 52: 20
Points Per Game Required: 0.95

Tranmere Rovers
Played: 26
Points: 31
Points Per Game: 1.19
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 21
Points Per Game Required: 1.05

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Swindon Town
Played: 30
Points: 31
Points Per Game: 1.03
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed for 52: 21
Points Per Game Required: 1.31

Walsall
Played: 29
Points: 27
Points Per Game: 0.93
Points Left Available: 51
Points Required for 52: 25
Points Per Game Required: 1.47

Bristol Rovers
Played: 29
Points: 27
Points Per Game: 0.93
Points Left Available: 51
Points Needed for 52: 25
Points Per Game Required: 1.47

Dagenham & Redbridge
Played : 26
Points: 25
Points Per Game: 0.96
Points Left Available: 60
Points Needed for 52: 27
Points Per Game Required: 1.35


Dont think any of that will tell us anything we didnt already know.

The current bottom 4 and Plymouth are the only 5 times currently not on track to make it to 52 points. Plymouth need to improve their PPG by 0.09, Swindon need to improve by 0.28, Walsall and Rovers by 0.54 and Daggers by 0.39.

I've only included the current bottom half of the table but Colchester currently sit 10th with only 38 points. A decent run of form will see a team shoot up the table.

Walsall have at least improved recently, if their run continues through another 3/4/5 games and they could be above water. Us and Plymouth obviously played the most but some teams games in hand must fall against each other.

I'll keep this updated maybe add a form guide and remaining fixtures.

If we win all our remaining games we will get to 79 points which would be 3 less than last season! The average amount of points for 6th place is 76 points (lowest 71, highest 81) so for those deluded happy clappers amongst us (I'm looking at you Wilson!) we can still make the play offs!

If you dont like this thread, dont see the point blah blah blah dont bother reading it or posting in it, thanks

Like it.............draws are no good then.

Indeed a good post DV.
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pauld
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« Reply #6 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 09:20:13 »

Good work DV. We're pretty much fucked, aren't we?
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Arriba

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« Reply #7 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 10:02:23 »

i dont think with wilson in charge we will do it.a new manager gives us a chance at least.
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Berniman
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« Reply #8 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 10:12:06 »

Proper fucked, before ze germans get here!
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JanAageisGod

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« Reply #9 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 10:23:24 »

Mmm, we still have to go to Brighton, Southampton and Huddersfield. At the moment, you have to write off us getting anything from those. I will for the purposes of this argument, because I am fed up.

So that more or less leaves us with 13 games to get 21 points. That's seven wins in 13 games, or five wins and a lot of draws. Even if 50 is enough, which it often is, that's still 19 points. It needs at least five more wins and some degree of resilience.

Stick a fork in it I'm afraid.
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #10 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 11:00:26 »

Mmm, we still have to go to Brighton, Southampton and Huddersfield. At the moment, you have to write off us getting anything from those. I will for the purposes of this argument, because I am fed up.

So that more or less leaves us with 13 games to get 21 points. That's seven wins in 13 games, or five wins and a lot of draws. Even if 50 is enough, which it often is, that's still 19 points. It needs at least five more wins and some degree of resilience.

Stick a fork in it I'm afraid.

Don't ask Triseros to do that, he's hung his up.
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DiV
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Joseph McLaughlin




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« Reply #11 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 14:33:24 »

You gonna put this on football forums dv?

As you're probably aware I dont really post there anymore.

I'm not going to make an exception with this, it'll give the Brighton fans wanking material and they opportunity to ask the question as to whether we miss Greer. Crstig will then make a dull boring comment about nothing and then it will some how turn into a who is bigger Southampton or Sheffield Wednesday thread, yawn.

Feel free to steal it, if you want it over there though.

Like it.............draws are no good then.

Indeed a good post DV.

I wouldnt say draws are no good, as they are worth a point - but draws on their own are no good. It doesnt take a genius to work out 1 point a game isnt 1.31 points a game, which would mean 3 points every two games (ish), we need to win exactly 7 of our last 16 games to get to 52. We have won 7 all season thus far all with what's his name upfront as well.

Good work DV. We're pretty much fucked, aren't we?

No, we arent yet! but the problem is I cant see where our next win is coming from (I'm sure im not alone in this) and Wilson has quite frankly lost the plot. Walsall looked dead and buried a few weeks ago, couple of wins they are closing the gap but more importantly have momentum.

Mmm, we still have to go to Brighton, Southampton and Huddersfield. At the moment, you have to write off us getting anything from those. I will for the purposes of this argument, because I am fed up.

I dunno, they are the type of games we have done better in this season. I dont think those games are the problem, alot of the teams around the bottom will still have to play those teams and very few will pick up any points.

Its the game left against the teams around us that worry me more - because if they do beat us, its point we've lost out on (obviously) and points they gain on us (again obvious I know)

As London Red said, the run of Walsall, Daggers and Plymouth could be vital. At least 7 points is vital from that run.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #12 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 16:39:11 »

We're utterly fucked. Going down I reckon.
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THE FLASH

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« Reply #13 on: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 17:29:10 »

With four going down we are fucked....
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« Reply #14 on: Thursday, February 10, 2011, 18:37:29 »

Anybody going to go through our remaining games and work out how many points they think we'll actually get?
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