Tracking the Morfuni Mark

[Nemo]

Well, last season we tracked STFC's successful efforts to finish below the Beamish Line.

This season, we're almost coming at it from the other direction - having put a bit of distance between ourselves and the relegation zone, can we look upwards towards not having the worst finish in our history for the second year in a row?

• We have 19 games left this season
• We currently have 28 points from 27 games, at 1.04 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.5 PPG so we're behind, but catching
• We need 1.42 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.68 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Newport (A) - 20th
Tranmere (H) - 22nd
Carlisle (A) - 24th
Port Vale (H) - 3rd
Harrogate (A) - 19th
Chesterfield (H) - 10th
Walsall (A) - 1st
Salford (H) - 7th
Doncaster (A) - 6th
Cheltenham (H) - 13th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 4th
Fleetwood (A) - 14th
Bradford (H) - 8th
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 11th
Gillingham (A) - 16th
MK (H) - 12th


We should be okay... those next three games are key, all against sides below us but two away.

[TownEnders.com]

Three links to help track:

• Points progression versus both the Morfuni Mark and the Beamish Line
  https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php
  
  
• Points per game versus the last ten years of finishes in League Two
  https://townenders.com/stat_club_ppg.php?structure_code=M
  
  
• ELO projection of the likelihood of table outcomes for each team/position
  https://townenders.com/stat_elo_table_projection.php?structure_code=M
  
  

[Nemo]

What a guy (Although one that needs a change of username I think)

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

Three links to help track:

• Points progression versus both the Morfuni Mark and the Beamish Line
  https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php
  
  
• Points per game versus the last ten years of finishes in League Two
  https://townenders.com/stat_club_ppg.php?structure_code=M
  
  
• ELO projection of the likelihood of table outcomes for each team/position
  https://townenders.com/stat_elo_table_projection.php?structure_code=M
  
  

Brilliant work this. That average points per game is a real good indicator of how bad it was and how far we've come. Still not out of yet but hopefully soon we can be well in the white zone.

The morfuni mark is hopefully an entertaining side thing to track towards the end of the season.

[Nomoreheroes]

So we are still in a very precarious position?

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

brink of relegation danger according to that.

[Jimmy Quinn]

Fantastic stats👌 let’s get another 22 points minimum asap then analyse them in more detail.

[jayohaitchenn]

Three links to help track:

• Points progression versus both the Morfuni Mark and the Beamish Line
  https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php
  
  
• Points per game versus the last ten years of finishes in League Two
  https://townenders.com/stat_club_ppg.php?structure_code=M
  
  
• ELO projection of the likelihood of table outcomes for each team/position
  https://townenders.com/stat_elo_table_projection.php?structure_code=M
  
  

Hope you don't mind, I took the liberty of changing your display name

[dogs]

Think we'll end up with around the same points as last season and likely around 7/8 points clear of relegation.

[4D]

The next 3 games are massive

[Tails]

Not sure if it's the right thread for it, but Holloway and Kennedy have now managed the same number of League games (I'm not counting Gills for Holloway).

Kennedy
P13 W2 D5 L6 Pts 11 GF 14 GA 19 GD -5

Holloway
P13 W4 D4 L5 Pts 16 GF 18 GA 21 GD -3

So certainly an improvement, and I think Holloway passes the eye test more than Kennedy did too. I tried to measure difficulty of opponent by the league table, and Kennedy had a slightly harder schedule. The remaining fixture list is also slightly easier although we do have some really tough games including Walsall away.

[Batch]

It feels like the improvement has come later in Hollway's tenure, I mean it must have, 3 of our wins have come in the last 4 home games.  So we have momentum that isn't really reflected by the full 13 games.

Kennedy didn't get that, it was splutter splutter throughout.

[Nemo]

If I was to defend Kennedy, it's pretty clear now that he had bad luck with injuries - Delaney and Clarke missed most of his tenure, and Smith a fair bit through suspension after randomly elbowing someone in the head for no reason.

He was still toss.

[DV]

Not sure if it's the right thread for it, but Holloway and Kennedy have now managed the same number of League games (I'm not counting Gills for Holloway).

Kennedy
P13 W2 D5 L6 Pts 11 GF 14 GA 19 GD -5

Holloway
P13 W4 D4 L5 Pts 16 GF 18 GA 21 GD -3

So certainly an improvement, and I think Holloway passes the eye test more than Kennedy did too. I tried to measure difficulty of opponent by the league table, and Kennedy had a slightly harder schedule. The remaining fixture list is also slightly easier although we do have some really tough games including Walsall away.

Just on general feeling around our recent performances I’d have expected a bit of a bigger gap.

However, I guess you need to take into account Kennedy had pre-season & got to build his team (maybe? I guess?) where as on the other hand Holloway took over Kennedy’s team & has had to eradicate what Kennedy left behind

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

Yeah early on we had some good cup results, but it was still pretty dross under Holloway for a good few games. Its more recently we've actually turned a corner.