Poll
Question: What do you think?
Town smash through the Beamish Barrier with 59pts or more - 11 (13.9%)
We reach Beamish Parity on 58 points exactly - 14 (17.7%)
Ken you believe it? 57 points or fewer - 54 (68.4%)
Total Voters: 79

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 ... 12   Go Down
Print
Author Topic: Tracking the Beamish Line  (Read 17217 times)
Nemo
Shit Bacon

Online Online

Posts: 21267





Ignore
« on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 16:17:05 »

Jump to the beat of the Beamish Line

Look, it's the only interest we really have left this season. Will we record our worst ever league finish season? The estimable Mr. Banyard reckons it's very slightly under a 50% chance. The good news is he thinks it's almost eight times more likely we reach the playoffs than we go down, but the bad news is that's still a below 2% chance.

For those not keeping up at the back, the 'Beamish Line' is the final league position and points tally of Ken Beamish's particularly useless 1983/4 side who finished 17th in the fourth division with 58 points. Helpfully a 46 game season so direct comparisons are possible.

  • With 14 games left, Town sit exactly 17th with 39 points
  • We need 20 points (1.43 ppg) to reach the magic 59 point threshold.
  • Over the 32 games played, we're running at 1.22 ppg
  • Over the last ten games, we're running at 1.00 ppg

Our remaining games are: (current league position of opposition)

Milton Keynes H (6th)
Stockport A (1st)
Tranmere H (18th)
Harrogate H (8th)
Mansfield A (2nd)
Accrington H (12th)
Doncaster H (20th)
Walsall A (16th)
Notts Co H (7th)
Sutton A (24th)
Barrow A (5th)
Wimbledon H (10th)
Grimsby A (21st)
Morecambe H (11th)

Playing three of the top four away isn't ideal. Only playing four teams below us... really not sure this is going to end well for us I'm afraid.

What do you think?
« Last Edit: Wednesday, February 14, 2024, 08:35:35 by Nemo » Logged
The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

Offline Offline

Posts: 19346


?Absolute Calamity!?




Ignore
« Reply #1 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 16:21:23 »

30 points!
Logged
TailBetweenLegs

Offline Offline

Posts: 225




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 17:02:35 »

I find it hard to see 3/4 more wins there i am afraid
Logged
The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

Offline Offline

Posts: 19346


?Absolute Calamity!?




Ignore
« Reply #3 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 17:08:26 »

Bollocks!
Logged
RobertT

Offline Offline

Posts: 11695




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 17:12:52 »

We've only won 4 out of our last 15 I think, so the evidence suggests that is a possibility.
Logged
Posh Red
Posh by name, Posh by nature

Offline Offline

Posts: 7263





Ignore
« Reply #5 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 17:46:18 »

I usually predict the results from February onwards, and have us getting another 15 points & finishing below the Beamish line in 18th place.

Someone sent me through a link to the Beamish squad, and honestly think that team would probably have beaten the current crop.
Logged
jayohaitchenn
Wielder of the BANHAMMER

Offline Offline

Posts: 12514




« Reply #6 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:08:36 »

I'm shit at predictions but I reckon we'll be lucky to get another 12 - 15 points.
Logged
TailBetweenLegs

Offline Offline

Posts: 225




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:13:42 »

Bollocks!
What is?
Logged
tans
You spin me right round baby right round

Online Online

Posts: 24980





Ignore
« Reply #8 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:16:26 »

I hope we finish lower tbh, might as well achieve something this season so we can all big up the ownership
Logged
Quagmire

Offline Offline

Posts: 4613





Ignore
« Reply #9 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:18:14 »

Iíd be amazed if we get more than 15 points from our remaining games. There is nothing to suggest we will.
Logged
Nemo
Shit Bacon

Online Online

Posts: 21267





Ignore
« Reply #10 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:18:59 »

I hope we finish lower tbh, might as well achieve something this season so we can all big up the ownership

It might be just fatalism, but I sort of prefer us being terrible to merely quite bad. Obviously I'd rather we were good, but there's something about the grim seasons that sticks with you.
Logged
The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

Offline Offline

Posts: 19346


?Absolute Calamity!?




Ignore
« Reply #11 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:29:54 »

What is?
Thatíll well only get 3/4 more wins. Iíll wager you £50 for the charity of your choice we get more.
Logged
Quagmire

Offline Offline

Posts: 4613





Ignore
« Reply #12 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:35:40 »

Thatíll well only get 3/4 more wins. Iíll wager you £50 for the charity of your choice we get more.

Genuine question Aud, what are you basing that on to be so confident?

There is nothing to suggest we will.
Logged
The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

Offline Offline

Posts: 19346


?Absolute Calamity!?




Ignore
« Reply #13 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 18:39:21 »

Well, I may be confusing enjoying the performance on Saturday with an upturn in confidence, but I saw enough to convince me we are far better than the arse end of Flynn. Sure, itís a small sample of 3 games but Gav is right - we should have won all 3.

That, and I fucking hate the never ending downbeat, wrist-slitting pessimism that surrounds the club at the moment.

In essence - hope over expectation!
Logged
adje

Online Online

Posts: 13639





Ignore
« Reply #14 on: Monday, February 12, 2024, 19:08:06 »

Well, I may be confusing enjoying the performance on Saturday with an upturn in confidence, but I saw enough to convince me we are far better than the arse end of Flynn. Sure, itís a small sample of 3 games but Gav is right - we should have won all 3.

That, and I fucking hate the never ending downbeat, wrist-slitting pessimism that surrounds the club at the moment.

In essence - hope over expectation!
Agree with that 100%. And with the "worst team in the league" going to Wrexham and getting 3 points, I think we can get a few more wins but as you say that might be a shade optimistic!
Logged

quot;Molten memories splashing down
 upon the rooves of Swindon Town"
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 ... 12   Go Up
Print
Jump to: