Tracking the Morfuni Mark

[Bob1978]

Keep the current trajectory and we hit the Green play off line in 7 games

[Jimmy Quinn]

We would probably need 11 or 12 more wins with the odd draw and defeat.

[McGurk's Missus]

Keep the current trajectory and we hit the Green play off line in 7 games

Ahh but you're forgetting that the data is fluid not fixed. Whilst it's possible that Town could hit that number of points in 7 games, the ''green PO line'' will have most likely have moved upwards too.

More ''proper'' might be to say that ''Keep the current trajectory and Town could be much closer to the green play off line, in 7 games time.'' 

[Oaksey Moonraker]

It would probably take a Di Canio or Wellens team type run of 9-10 wins in a row to make the play offs.

Not sure this team is good enough yet, but keeping the core team together with Holloway and some additions, we could have a chance next season. Holloway has a good play off record as well.

This is the test of Clem and Co's football credentials. They have fallen on something that is working so do they back the manager, learning the lesson from Garner's season, and try to create momentum to flog season tickets.

Or the usual rip it up and start again. There will be clubs higher up the pyramid watching what Holloway has done and could be tempted. The only thing is our locality and at his stage of his career does he want to move away again?

[Tails]

It's great we've had an upturn in form, but you have to remember our 4 game streak came against 4 of the worst sides in the division. I just think we don't have enough in us to even get close to the playoffs. A loss or two in the next few weeks should bump us back to earth a bit.

Just get to 46 points. Then hopefully Clem & co fuck off and we can have our club back.

[OOH! SHAUN TAYLOR]

No one, but no one would have seriously predicted 4 wins from these last 4 games so lets just sit back, enjoy the ride and see where it takes us

It's just bloody lovely to be able to actually look forward to games again...

[Tails]

Having a look at the games in hand teams have against us, we should have a clearer picture where we are by the end of the month. I think we'll still be around the 15th /16th mark

Fleetwood:
Tranmere (A) - 11th Feb
AFC Wimbledon (H) - 18th Feb
Gills (A) - 25th Feb

Bromley:
Salford (A) - 4th Feb
Bradford (H) - 25th Feb

Gillingham:
Walsall (A) - 11th Feb
Fleetwood (H) - 25th Feb
Chesterfield (A) - 8th April

Barrow:
Franchise (H) - 11th Feb
Port Vale (A) - no date set

Newport:
Morecambe (H) - 4th Feb
Carlisle (H) - 11th Feb
Accrington (A) - 11th March

Accrington:
Bradford (A) - 11th Feb
Tranmere (A) - 25th Feb
Newport (H) - 11th March

Tranmere:
Fleetwood (H) - 11th Feb
Accrington (H) - 25th Feb

Morecambe:
Newport (A) - 4th Feb
Doncaster (H) - 18th Feb

Carlisle:
Newport (A) - 11th Feb
Franchise (H) - date not set

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php

I see we have now caught up with the Morfuni Mark tracking. Closing in on the Beamish Line track.

[Berniman]

The scary thing is we have been below both all season until now, and it's February!  Shows how bad Kennedy was doing and how well Holloway has done in recent months.

[Wobbly Bob]

Holloway is currently running at the highest ppg of his managerial career.
Yeah, small sample set so far, but it really would be a miracle if he could keep that going & increase it over the next 16 games.

Would expect a drop off at some stage, but as a romantic idealist, miracles do sometimes happen.
Nah, not for us, no chance.

Source: Transfermarkt.  

[NotHarryAgombar]

That PPG has been helped by a favourable run of fixtures.
If we go back to the Colchester defeat, since then we've played 4 teams above us - drawn 2, lost 2 - scoring only 1 goal in the process (Wimbledon away).
We lost at home to Doncaster and Walsall and away to Salford and Port vale earlier in the season - all of whom we play between now and 8th March.
Stand by for that PPG to drop off a bit as we get a more accurate measure of where we are.
If you think I'm being unduly pessimistic, think how poor we were for 85 mins v Tranmere last week.

[Nemo]

I don't think anyone thinks we will proceed merrily at 2 PPG for the rest of the season, but it's just nice not being absolute dogshit for a bit.

[Nemo]

Forgot to update this one after the Vale game, so here's how we stand midweek after a few games in hands have been played.

• We have 15 games left this season
• We currently have 38 points from 31 games, at 1.23 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.9 PPG (DDWLDWWWWD)
• We need 1.13 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.47 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.33 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Harrogate (A) - 21st
Chesterfield (H) - 10th
Walsall (A) - 1st but in shambles form
Salford (H) - 7th
Doncaster (A) - 5th
Cheltenham (H) - 17th
Accrington (H) - 20th
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 4th
Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 3rd
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 13th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 15th

Funny how even a "good" draw makes those ambitious goals of the playoffs zoom away from us, 2.33 PPG is silly stuff. 1.47 to beat the Beamish Line is still a pretty good effort, which just shows how bad we were at the start of the season!

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

We've already caught up to the Morfuni Mark, we should get past the Beamish Line and comfortably acheive our third or fourth worst finish ever.

I would ironically say comission the Clem statue now but I think some of his supporters would seriously agree.

[adje]

We'll only lose 3 more!