i mean this is potentially more interesting than random manager names and possibly one of the strangest things i have read on this 80% bollocks forum.
surely the only way you would ever make money in the lower league betting is to close your eyes and pick. there seems to be no set method to success, teams have appointed high profile managers, spent a lot of money, recruited well and then you still get the likes of stevenage and carlisle near the top of the league.
to say you would bet on us to do well if the cowleys took over without knowing our squad, performances and set up is pretty crazy. to follow a manager you would surely miss as much as you hit as you previously suggested. a manager to work somewhere is so hit and miss.
You have wellens of Oldham, Doncaster and Salford then you have wellens of Swindon and Leyton Orient.
You have Eddie Howe of Burnley then you have eddie howe of Bournemouth and Newcastle.
It takes a random fit for it to work and my top tip for you would be to keep it in your pocket
I agree with most of what you've written. Nothing is certain in football. But I am very much manager-orientated.
There have been occasions when I've backed a team ante-post even though I had a very low opinion of their manager. This comes back to the "right club at the right time". I thought Peter Taylor was a terrible manager but when he got the Hull City job I backed them. They had finished near the bottom of the fourth tier but had just been taken over by a wealthy consortium and had recently left Boothferry Park for The 25,000 capacity KC Stadium. Even then although Taylor led The Tigers to back to back promotions he didn't win the title either time.
But backing Hull under Taylor was a real exception. Normally it is my opinion of the manager that determines where my money goes and I have championed some right chumps over the years I will admit.
You point out correctly that managers can succeed then fail and then succeed again; Wellens being the prime example. Far more common is a manager having a shelf life and it is vital when making an appointment that owners/chairmen are aware of this; few are.
Sir Alex Ferguson is almost unique. He had a career of forty years and was still on the top of his game on his retirement. Though, as has been stated often, he would almost certainly have been sacked within his first couple of years at manu in today's world; and of course he was sacked, ridiculously, early in his management career at St Mirren. For virtually everybody else their time comes and goes if it is ever there at all.
The classic example in my opinion of a manager reaching his shelf life but many not recognising it is Brian Little. A great footballer whose career was so badly affected by injury he started his managerial career as a permanent manager at Darlington. He did well there and Leicester came in for him. He did well there and "his club" gave him the reins at Villa Park. Little started well but at some point, around the time Villa signed Stan Collymore, he just stopped being a good manager. What happens I don't know but it happens to virtually all successful managers; at some point they lose that gift and it never returns. What makes Little so relevant is that five clubs subsequently made him their manager but at only Hull was his tenure not a complete disaster. Knowing when a manager has "lost that magic it" is vital but most owners don't read the signs; and "it" can leave some managers in their early forties but others not till their late sixties.
Actually as I write this more and more examples that back up your point are occurring to me. The simple truth is it is not an exact science, but it's a fascinating one.
