New beginnings - 25% Truth, 80% Bollocks

[Peter Venkman]

…you can only exit if you’ve got someone who wants to buy…

And someone who wants to sell.

[DV]

I mean logically speaking if you’re running a business that you can’t afford to run and have to continually plug & you’re the main person they owe money to; then you’d be open selling right?

You’d get rid of the business, wouldn’t have to keep plugging the gaps and you’d get x amount back as part of the sale & probably continue to get small instalments for the next few years (assume hypothetical new owner doesn’t pay off all the debt owed to club as part of the purchase)

I know Clem has said it’s not for sale but I assume that’s just as likely to be him playing hard ball.

Unless he (thinks) he can turn over a hefty profit from Stadium renovations - then what else is there in it for him?

[Peter Venkman]

I mean logically speaking if you’re running a business that you can’t afford to run and have to continually plug & you’re the main person they owe money to; then you’d be open selling right?

You’d get rid of the business, wouldn’t have to keep plugging the gaps and you’d get x amount back as part of the sale & probably continue to get small instalments for the next few years (assume hypothetical new owner doesn’t pay off all the debt owed to club as part of the purchase)

I know Clem has said it’s not for sale but I assume that’s just as likely to be him playing hard ball.

Unless he (thinks) he can turn over a hefty profit from Stadium renovations - then what else is there in it for him?

That does depend on if you believe everything Clem says, or even part of what Clem says.

He says he doesnt want to sell and that the club is not for sale, or, maybe this also, is a lie?

[DV]

That does depend on if you believe everything Clem says, or even part of what Clem says.

He says he doesnt want to sell and that the club is not for sale, or, maybe this also, is a lie?

I think in reality everything is for sale for the right price.

My house isn’t for sale but if someone offered me good money for it - I’d sell it….

…now if my house was also out of my price range and needed some serious renovation; I’d jump at a, decent offer…

[Pookemon]

I wouldn’t take all those budgets at face value, though. It’s really just a collection of wage data from this site. Can’t believe even Clem is only paying the scholars £50pw!

https://salarysport.com/football/#sky-bet-league-two

I'm not convinced by the these numbers.

It includes players in on loan but it's not clear if that is the amount the loaning club pays or the wage of the player at his parent club.. 
It also excludes players loaned out, so Aguiar and Adoloye and you would assume we are paying some of those.

Some of the wages of the loaned in players may be quite big and distort the figures.   
All 3 of Sutton's top earners on the list are loans for example

[DV]

I'm not convinced by the these numbers.

It includes players in on loan but it's not clear if that is the amount the loaning club pays or the wage of the player at his parent club.. 
It also excludes players loaned out, so Aguiar and Adoloye and you would assume we are paying some of those.

Some if the wages of the loaned in players may be quite big and distort the figures.   
All 3 of Sutton's top earners on the list are loans for example

Walsall’s top earner is on £5.2k a week but also on loan from Wolves…

[horlock07]

I think in reality everything is for sale for the right price.

My house isn’t for sale but if someone offered me good money for it - I’d sell it….

…now if my house was also out of my price range and needed some serious renovation; I’d jump at a, decent offer…

This, plus in terms of your earlier post I think basic business logic seems to fly out the window when football clubs are involved.

[RobertT]

Regardless of Horlocks knowledge of the industry, I still would bet good money that Clem's in this for the ground as he always was from the start.  There are certainly ways to lose good money in football, but we  also know there are ways to extract money as well, and none of it needing to be illegal.  It's surely why some of the hangers on are hanging on.  Zav using the club as a Trojan Horse for a Visa business for example.  The partnership with the Aussie private Academy looks a bit weird as well - it's not us setting up some talent pool, it's us partnering with a well established local Academy that basically runs local youth football leagues.  Thus far the only output from that appears to be us sending Gav Gunning to watch the kids play for two days and charging the parents 299 AUSD for the privilege.

There is basically a lot of stuff that makes no real sense to the outside observer, but likely earns someone a few quid here and there.  The ground development gets Axis some money back, maybe they never come out of this the way Clem wanted, but he's been moving money around his businesses for a while to keep the lights on it seems.   Nothing in the public domain suggests a booming business, quite the opposite.  There has been an awful lot of "restructuring", or liquidations, whichever word you fancy.  The ground maybe a way into a new market to keep that business going, use it as marketing material as it's been a while since they were involved in the Spurs toilets for example.

Take yourself back to September 2022, and Clem is faced with two options.  Find 2.9m quick sharpish to enable the Eady Trust to buy the ground, give his business half and lease his business the full asset for 299 years at half the current rate of rent, or pull out of the deal, say the club can't afford it.  That was an option, he did not need to proceed.  The Debenture was either called in or forced to be cleared because of the asset transfer.  If the club did not take the asset, the Debenture remains worthless, in terms of what anyone could really get if they tried to force repayment.

To proceed means that asset transfer was the potential payoff - we had to have it, because the strategy from there on relied on it.  It created more confusion in ownership and muddied the financial waters, but Clem is all in on the sunk cost fallacy right now (if Horlock is right).  Rather than cut your losses and bail, he's had to go all in.  Now he just needs to find a way of surviving until contracts can be drawn-up, or someone buys into the potential and takes it off his hands.  I think he would prefer to have Axis sewn-up in the deal either way.

That's all opinion, based on some fact, and I could be very wrong.  But it just feels more likely than not right now.  Nothing is being invested in for the long term future of the football club, we are changing recruitment strategy mid season, let alone from season to season, which would be bad enough.  Everything just has the smell of gambling, panic, reacting - nothing looks well planned.  I mean, if running a football club for the long term was the plan, a CEO would be onboard who knows how to run a football club.  Even though he BS's quite a bit, I don't doubt Clem when he says it's hard work, especially while abroad.  All the more reason you appoint someone who knows their arse from the elbow.  He can still have his Axis team involved, on the Board, to oversee the ground development.

[ThreeDrawsMentality]

Given takeover talk is all the rage at the moment, rumours have broke this morning that Shrewsbury Town are in talks with 2 different consortia -  one domestic and the other Scandinavian. Shrews from the outside have appeared well ran and backed, yet their fans have been quite toxic about their owner, who's also a fan.

Carlisle also in prolonged talks with a wealthy Floridian.

[Audrey]

Was always the plan. From 2014

‘ FOOTBALL: Swindon Chairman Lee Power tells BBC Wiltshire he's in talks with an Australian firm over potentially developing the County Ground’

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

Given takeover talk is all the rage at the moment, rumours have broke this morning that Shrewsbury Town are in talks with 2 different consortia -  one domestic and the other Scandinavian. Shrews from the outside have appeared well ran and backed, yet their fans have been quite toxic about their owner, who's also a fan.

Carlisle also in prolonged talks with a wealthy Floridian.

Buyers are ten a plenty, its just who isn't it?

The "who would buy the club" people are idiots, but they're right, just not in the way they think they are. They think there would be no buyers out there, there will be plenty interested.....its just who do we end up with and if Clems asking price will scare the decent ones away.

[horlock07]

Regardless of Horlocks knowledge of the industry, I still would bet good money that Clem's in this for the ground as he always was from the start.  There are certainly ways to lose good money in football, but we  also know there are ways to extract money as well, and none of it needing to be illegal.  It's surely why some of the hangers on are hanging on.  Zav using the club as a Trojan Horse for a Visa business for example.  The partnership with the Aussie private Academy looks a bit weird as well - it's not us setting up some talent pool, it's us partnering with a well established local Academy that basically runs local youth football leagues.  Thus far the only output from that appears to be us sending Gav Gunning to watch the kids play for two days and charging the parents 299 AUSD for the privilege.

There is basically a lot of stuff that makes no real sense to the outside observer, but likely earns someone a few quid here and there.  The ground development gets Axis some money back, maybe they never come out of this the way Clem wanted, but he's been moving money around his businesses for a while to keep the lights on it seems.   Nothing in the public domain suggests a booming business, quite the opposite.  There has been an awful lot of "restructuring", or liquidations, whichever word you fancy.  The ground maybe a way into a new market to keep that business going, use it as marketing material as it's been a while since they were involved in the Spurs toilets for example.

Take yourself back to September 2022, and Clem is faced with two options.  Find 2.9m quick sharpish to enable the Eady Trust to buy the ground, give his business half and lease his business the full asset for 299 years at half the current rate of rent, or pull out of the deal, say the club can't afford it.  That was an option, he did not need to proceed.  The Debenture was either called in or forced to be cleared because of the asset transfer.  If the club did not take the asset, the Debenture remains worthless, in terms of what anyone could really get if they tried to force repayment.

To proceed means that asset transfer was the potential payoff - we had to have it, because the strategy from there on relied on it.  It created more confusion in ownership and muddied the financial waters, but Clem is all in on the sunk cost fallacy right now (if Horlock is right).  Rather than cut your losses and bail, he's had to go all in.  Now he just needs to find a way of surviving until contracts can be drawn-up, or someone buys into the potential and takes it off his hands.  I think he would prefer to have Axis sewn-up in the deal either way.

That's all opinion, based on some fact, and I could be very wrong.  But it just feels more likely than not right now.  Nothing is being invested in for the long term future of the football club, we are changing recruitment strategy mid season, let alone from season to season, which would be bad enough.  Everything just has the smell of gambling, panic, reacting - nothing looks well planned.  I mean, if running a football club for the long term was the plan, a CEO would be onboard who knows how to run a football club.  Even though he BS's quite a bit, I don't doubt Clem when he says it's hard work, especially while abroad.  All the more reason you appoint someone who knows their arse from the elbow.  He can still have his Axis team involved, on the Board, to oversee the ground development.

Just for clarity I have never doubted that such an approach MAY be Clems plan, what I have doubted and will continue to doubt is whether its going to remotely deliver what he wants or needs it to (and with the market at the moment, the chances of even that diminish strongly by the day!)

Much as with the stream of chancers/lack of pot pissers/dreamers we have attached for the last 30 odd years, yes you may be able to make a few quid, get a nice tie and visitors badge and get to lease a decent motor, but for what they have invested (where they have invested) there are a plethora of ways to make money a hell of a lot easier than owning/running a two bit lower league football club with a shite load of baggage.

Power got bloody close with the whole training ground + housing scheme (which I have a grudging professional admiration for) but even then he fell at the very last hurdle (no pun intended) for reasons unknown (all I can assume that the failure to sign the s.106 which would have forced it over the line to consent was down to the ownership issues with Standing/Clem which were emerging).

If anyone has a few quid to spare it would be very interesting to get a copy of the entry on the register for the CG site (to see what covenants are on there now Goddard + Eady maybe??) plus the entry for the training ground site to see who owns that now.

[Nemo]

Carlisle also in prolonged talks with a wealthy Floridian.

A genuine Mickey Mouse consortium!

[joeydubya]

Power had planned for Twelve Oaks to have a training ground, racing stables and a small 'luxury' housing estate adjoining which had narrow approval, subject to £600k surcharge for no affordable homes. Quick Google suggests it never developed beyond the agreement, seem to remember an outright refusal/revote around the takeover time? It looks like the land is up for grabs still, many residents resisting housing.

[RobertT]

Much as with the stream of chancers/lack of pot pissers/dreamers we have attached for the last 30 odd years, yes you may be able to make a few quid, get a nice tie and visitors badge and get to lease a decent motor, but for what they have invested (where they have invested) there are a plethora of ways to make money a hell of a lot easier than owning/running a two bit lower league football club with a shite load of baggage.

This is it in a nutshell though, isn't it?

The world of football attracts ego's, people who think they can play the game and win, willing to take otherwise bizarre gambles with money.  The secret world of money moving enables those people to be less than opaque, even if not criminal, they are often a bit dodgy.

Why would Clem be any different?  Why wouldn't he be an ego, who thought he could get a trophy for his business at the same time?  He probably got stuck here longer than he thought he would need to be - ego's always think they'll get it sorted quickly.  He ended-up having to buy the damned business to keep the gamble alive.

Yes, there are much easier ways of making money, which some sensible people do.  That doesn't stop people investing money in football.  I mean, in reality, very few clubs make any sort of profit, but there are plenty of people eating prawns at games as Roy would say.