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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1188858 times)
Pax Romana

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« Reply #1470 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 12:36:39 »

Public Health England publish flu stats for 2019-2020.  The latest report states that by week 3 of January 2020, "no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death had been seen yet overall or by age group in England this season".

If the coronavirus was widely circulating in December and January in the UK, surely that would have impacted the mortality rate?

I think that the problem is that the excess winter deaths annually are so variable (can more than double or halve year on year) that it is difficult to spot the impact of a new killer unless the volumes are massive or it happens to hit in a high flu death year.
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Pax Romana

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« Reply #1471 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 12:44:38 »

you'd think so. unless it mutated to something more deadly.

I don't know if that is possible or hasn't already been dismissed.

I thought that one of the standard characteristics of viruses is that whilst they can mutate to vaccine-resistant strains  they invariably mutate to less deadly strains.  Or is that more bollocks that I heard somewhere and now think is a fact?

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bigbobjoylove

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« Reply #1472 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 12:49:15 »

they invariably mutate to less deadly strains.  Or is that more bollocks that I heard somewhere and now think is a fact?


I read the same.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #1473 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 12:53:43 »

I was sick at Christmas and New Year. It wasn't terrible, but it was enough to keep me in.
Similar. Put it down to catching a bug from the grandson who had just started nursery.

Had an annoying tickly cough for 3 weeks, bit lethargic and a bit short of breath. Not enough to keep me from doing things, just felt a bit run down.

The course of the virus is about 3 weeks from catching it and getting better (or dying).
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StfcRusty

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« Reply #1474 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 13:16:21 »

I think that the problem is that the excess winter deaths annually are so variable (can more than double or halve year on year) that it is difficult to spot the impact of a new killer unless the volumes are massive or it happens to hit in a high flu death year.


Yes, I know what you mean. But the majority of over 70s have an annual flu jab, which would have had no effect on the virus. So, if it was widespread, you would think there would still be a statistically significant spike from, say, November when flu is still killing people and causing admissions.

I知 not trying to be smart because wtf do any of us really know. I sincerely hope the virus was spreading like wildfire in December because it値l mean far less people die.
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Batch
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« Reply #1475 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 13:16:35 »

good point pax about variability...
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pauld
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« Reply #1476 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 13:46:51 »

I thought that one of the standard characteristics of viruses is that whilst they can mutate to vaccine-resistant strains  they invariably mutate to less deadly strains.  Or is that more bollocks that I heard somewhere and now think is a fact?
No that is true (says the eminent virologist!). This was explained on an episode of the Infinite Monkey Cage which I listened to long before the Covid-19 outbreak, but annoyingly can't find it now. Viruses will mutate to both more and less deadly strains, but the less deadly strain will quickly become more prevalent through natural selection as the more deadly strain kills a higher proportion of it's hosts, thus limiting it's ability to propagate. Whereas the milder strain can also propagate undetected, as with Covid-19 where lots of people have it with fairly mild or even no symptoms, so go merrily about their way spreading it to the uninfected. It's one of the reasons why Ebola, although far more deadly than Covid-19, is easier to contain. If we ever encounter one that's highly infectious in a pre-symptomatic stage but has an Ebola style fatality, we're really fucked.
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tans
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« Reply #1477 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:04:51 »

Fucking hell

https://twitter.com/ahmedbaba_/status/1242539693423636487?s=21
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Bogus Dave
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« Reply #1478 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:06:22 »

Antibody test could be widely available as soon as next week apparently, according to the editor of the times on twitter

Would be available through amazon or by going to boots/chemist (I知 guessing this bit is probably less set in stone)
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RobertT

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« Reply #1479 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:10:39 »

You'd need to make sure it goes on record, that you are immune.  That's how you can begin a planned return to activity.  China are giving people Green QR codes to display if questioned - it's all going to end-up like something right out of a film no matter what approach is taken I guess.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #1480 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:17:07 »

Is there going to be a point where governments decide the economic damage is worse than the actual virus and just return to our daily routines?

Survival of the fittest at its most brutal? Hospitals are already deciding not to treat older virus patients in favour of younger ones.
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Flashheart

« Reply #1481 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:32:28 »

I notice news reports keep on saying her Maj is in good health, but no mention of whether she has the virus.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #1482 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:33:41 »

Bet Charles is trying to shower her with hugs and kisses (and coughs).
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Peter Venkman
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« Reply #1483 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:38:37 »

I notice news reports keep on saying her Maj is in good health, but no mention of whether she has the virus.
Interesting, if indeed her maj and Chas do have the disease and expire from it then that will be a Harry stepping up to the plate far earlier than anticipated.

There are a lot of variables in there of course but that would be a huge turn around in a short period of time.
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Peter Venkman
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« Reply #1484 on: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 14:39:22 »

Bet Charles is trying to shower her with hugs and kisses (and coughs).
He is 71 himself so right in the "at risk" list himself.
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Only a fool does not know when to hold his tongue.
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