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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1188487 times)
horlock07

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« Reply #690 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:14:33 »

Like a bit of Westvleteren beer. Not done that Brewery but we are staying the night at Ypres in August so may look at it.

Last time we went and did the Gordon Brewery (my favourite beer ever) and if you can get there the Chimay Brewery is well worth it they make several beers that are only sold at the Brewery and their cheeses are amazing too, takes your mind off Coronovirus Wink

We were supposed to be having two nights in Wipers (it was planned basically as a beer and WW1 trip), so the plan was to have a spin out to Poperinge on the middle day, do the hops museum there then there is also a c.40k beer cycle ride from there that takes in the breweries.

My fave is probably Kwaremont, but might be a bit biased as had two big day long sessions on the Oude Kwaremont watching the Tour of Flanders!
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #691 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:15:51 »

Whilst that is true, the same - if not worse - can be said of seasonal flu. Nobody bats and eyelid with that. If the old and unhealthy catch it the result is much the same.

There is a vaccine for flu, we could be 18 months away before we know of a vaccine for coronavirus.
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Flashheart

« Reply #692 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:18:06 »

Whilst that is true, the same - if not worse - can be said of seasonal flu. Nobody bats and eyelid with that. If the old and unhealthy catch it the result is much the same.

Coronavirus appears to have a MUCH higher fatality rate. If estimates of killing 1% of people are right, then that would mean it will kill 10x as many people as the flu does

It may also cripple the health system - putting people at higher risk of dying from other diseases.
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pauld
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« Reply #693 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:24:06 »

Whilst that is true, the same - if not worse - can be said of seasonal flu. Nobody bats and eyelid with that. If the old and unhealthy catch it the result is much the same.
"if not worse" - worse than death?
a) there is treatment for flu
b) the mortality rate seems to be far higher for coronavirus
c) the numbers requiring hospital treatment, even where they are not elderly, are far higher for coronavirus. Running the risk that the health service gets overwhelmed.

This is far worse than flu. Utterly astonished that that message hasn't got through yet.
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Batch
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« Reply #694 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:24:25 »

I thought it was 3%. great news if its 1%
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pauld
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« Reply #695 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:24:50 »

"if not worse" - worse than death?
a) there is treatment and a vaccine for flu
b) the mortality rate seems to be far higher for coronavirus
c) the numbers requiring hospital treatment, even where they are not elderly, are far higher for coronavirus. Running the risk that the health service gets overwhelmed.

This is far worse than flu. Utterly astonished that that message hasn't got through yet.
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Peter Venkman
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« Reply #696 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:24:58 »

We were supposed to be having two nights in Wipers (it was planned basically as a beer and WW1 trip), so the plan was to have a spin out to Poperinge on the middle day, do the hops museum there then there is also a c.40k beer cycle ride from there that takes in the breweries.

My fave is probably Kwaremont, but might be a bit biased as had two big day long sessions on the Oude Kwaremont watching the Tour of Flanders!
Kwaremont is a bit on the weak side for my pallate, I normally drink nothing under 8% or 9%. Lovely area, we did the WW1 stuff last time and we are taking the step daughter this time for her first beer holiday!

Hope you get there!

We went to lay a rose on the Menin Gate for my Great Uncle who is named on it, very moving and the Belgies are lovely people and very friendly.

The 600,000 little orange scultures near Ypres is incredible at ComingWorldRememberMe.

Now back to Coronavirus.....
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horlock07

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« Reply #697 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:30:26 »

Feel huge sympathy for all of you being adversely affected, for now we are OK but who knows once Councils strat to grand to a halt etc.

On a slightly lighter note, any news whether we are taking part in this?

https://www.leytonorient.com/2020/03/17/ultimate-quaran-team-raising-money-through-togetherness/

Answering my own question, yes.

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pauld
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« Reply #698 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:31:52 »

I thought it was 3%. great news if its 1%
We don't really know what it is because we don't know with any accuracy how many people are infected. It's running at around 7% in Italy. And we're at the start here. We won't have a good idea what the mortality rate is here until people start dying in numbers Sad
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Sippo
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« Reply #699 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:32:58 »

There is a vaccine for flu, we could be 18 months away before we know of a vaccine for coronavirus.

But flu still kills thousands of people every year. The flu jab just reduces the risk of catching it. Still affects old people and underlying conditions.

Not being confrontational, but I genuinely don't understand it all. Maybe I won't. It just all seems a bit extreme for me. What happens when this phase passes and it returns later in the year?
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« Reply #700 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:33:47 »

But flu still kills thousands of people every year. The flu jab just reduces the risk of catching it. Still affects old people and underlying conditions.
Read the other answers above. This is far worse than flu.
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Flashheart

« Reply #701 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:41:37 »

But flu still kills thousands of people every year. The flu jab just reduces the risk of catching it. Still affects old people and underlying conditions.

Not being confrontational, but I genuinely don't understand it all. Maybe I won't. It just all seems a bit extreme for me. What happens when this phase passes and it returns later in the year?

Are you just choosing to ignore what others have already said?

It is expected to be FAR worse than the flu. It could kill A LOT of people. Potentially hundreds of thousands in the UK alone. Perhaps even more.

What is it about that that you can't understand? Genuine question.

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suttonred

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« Reply #702 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:47:09 »

Lady who sits next to my wife at work tested positive earlier. Eek.
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RobertT

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« Reply #703 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:56:08 »

The problem people are having with the flu confusion is that it's been around for years and we have vaccines that reduce the potential spread of the disease and impact of getting it, on top of the lower mortality rate.

On top of that Covid-19 is early in the epidemic stage in each country (it's very interesting looking at the various Day + graphs that are available to see how each country has a very similar curve after Day 1 - first patient).  Then you have different countries hit in different ways because they are reacting to it differently.  There is some good modelling available that shows through a simulation the impact various types of social distancing can have on spread and it appears the data is converging that the ONLY way to slow the curve sufficiently is practically isolation (China and to a lesser extent South Korea, where demographics of the outbreak helped them a bit).  Italy is currently showing what happens when the virus gets into a population with a higher age spread and more people with lung conditions.

Essentially - people see panic right now because of where we are at the curve vs Flu.  The problem is that not taking action today means a curve that pushes this well beyond Flu within a matter of weeks.

The mortality rate is also going to change rapidly because it impacts different age groups in different ways - so Italy may remain worse than most other countries and South Korea may have got lucky for now rather than being ahead of the curve.

This is at least 10x worse than flu in terms of potential deaths, if it is allowed to get to the same levels of infection as Flu before a vaccine is created.  Once you get a vaccine, assuming it is as effective, the higher mortality rate SHOULD mean it ends-up being less impactful over time than flu.  The panic is necessary - you cannot let this be let loose like Flu is now allowed to be (actually, it probably raises some good questions about how we handle that - things like people being scorned if they take days off when they are not at deaths door for example).
« Last Edit: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 15:58:31 by RobertT » Logged
horlock07

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« Reply #704 on: Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 16:21:18 »

Funny you mention South Korea, North Korea has been very quiet!
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