Coronavirus

[Flashheart]

Maybe a wrongful comparison but I don't remember total shutdown during the Sars outbreak, which if I do remember was a far more serious virus.

But also more likely to cause significant symptoms, and less contagious. Meaning it was a lot easier to contain.

It's partly that coronavirus is so mild in so many cases that makes it so dangerous, because it means a lot of people will be passing it on unawares. Coronavirus will end up killing A LOT more people than Sars as it is and, the more infections there are, the higher the risk of a mutation.

It already has mutated once, bit thankfully not into something more deadly.

[pauld]

Fucking hell:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/

Anyone who thought they'd got rid of the eugenicists in Downing St when that weirdo kid got fired might want to think again. "Herd immunity" = let the weak die, the survivors will be stronger for it.

[theakston2k]

Isnt that what he said at 11pm last night

Probably I just saw some journo retweet it. As Johnson is about to announce we are entering the ‘delay’ phase I don’t think it’s too wide of the mark. I don’t think you’ll be watching us play at Oldham on Saturday.

[Batch]

Maybe a wrongful comparison but I don't remember total shutdown during the Sars outbreak, which if I do remember was a far more serious virus.

SARS was 3x more deadley but much better contained. This is from a couple of days ago

           Year        Cases      Deaths      Mort     Countries
Ebola      1976,      33577,    13562,      40.4,     9
Nipah      1998,         513,        398,      77.6,     2
SARS      2002,       8096,        774,       9.6,      29
MERS      2012,       2494,        858,      34.4,     28   
COVID-19 2020,  111365,      3892,        3.5      102

[Audrey]

Did I read or hear somewhere that eventually COVID-19 will just become another variety of seasonal flu and will be a constant ‘companion’ every year?

[Batch]

Fucking hell:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/

Anyone who thought they'd got rid of the eugenicists in Downing St when that weirdo kid got fired might want to think again. "Herd immunity" = let the weak die, the survivors will be stronger for it.

Its quite a good article as to why though. Essentially 'its going to happen anyway' is the key premise-  so lets try and control its rate of spread .

And with a likely spread through Africa and Americas that it will be around for a while - so immunity is going to be the only way given no vaccine is going to be available for quite a while.

[Flashheart]

Did I read or hear somewhere that eventually COVID-19 will just become another variety of seasonal flu and will be a constant ‘companion’ every year?

It looks possible, but we'll have COVID jabs eventually. Hopefully.

[adje]

SARS was 3x more deadley but much better contained. This is from a couple of days ago

           Year        Cases      Deaths      Mort     Countries
Ebola      1976,      33577,    13562,      40.4,     9
Nipah      1998,         513,        398,      77.6,     2
SARS      2002,       8096,        774,       9.6,      29
MERS      2012,       2494,        858,      34.4,     28   
COVID-19 2020,  111365,      3892,        3.5      102

We haven't learned how to contain from that experience?

[Batch]

BoJo speaking.

He's actually come across OK.

Basics are as you were *for now*
Sports OK *for now* - but the issue is it puts strain on resources (emergency services)
People should self isolate with persistent cough/fever
In future the whole family will need to self isolate if 1 gets syptoms.
No schools overseas trips.
No cruises for elderly (advice)

Its going to get worse, and extra measures may need to be put in place as we go towards the peak.

[Batch]

We haven't learned how to contain from that experience?

I take it as simply being of different characteristics to SARS.

[Batch]

Medical bod  - we are 4 week behind Italy and some other Euro countries. Peak yet to come.

Its likely we have between 5-10K infected right now but only 500 confirmed. Steep curve yet to come. We need to protect people during the pleak period.

Now trying to delay peak and bring the peak down

[Nemo]

"Medical bod" makes the fairly reasonable point that in order to make closing schools worth it you'd have to do it for 3-4 months and good luck keeping children isolated for that period of time.

[Batch]

"Medical bod" makes the fairly reasonable point that in order to make closing schools worth it you'd have to do it for 3-4 months and good luck keeping children isolated for that period of time.

yeah.

The whole thing seems to have made very good points. Assuming they are right.

[Nemo]

yeah.

The whole thing seems to have made very good points. Assuming they are right.

Yep. As with many things, it's quite a lot more complicated than just "lock everyone inside for a week and jobs a good 'un"

[Nemo]

Medical bod shows some political naivety by suggesting that their top planning modelling rate is 80% infections, then says that's speculative, unlikely etc. and not the main point.

Bet that's every paper's headline tomorrow, unfortunately.