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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1188380 times)
pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #195 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 12:54:17 »

With the death rate in Italy shooting up over the weekend, they're now seeing a mortality rate of about 4.9% of *confirmed* cases. That's a lot worse than even the WHO figures last week.
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horlock07

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« Reply #196 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 12:57:31 »

With the death rate in Italy shooting up over the weekend, they're now seeing a mortality rate of about 4.9% of *confirmed* cases. That's a lot worse than even the WHO figures last week.

One thing to note in Italy is the age distribution. Italy has a larger proportion of older citizens due to the birth rate of 1.9, which means that the population is shrinking and the average age is increasing, this is not the case in other countries. Consequently the mortality rate is likely to be higher.
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Quagmire

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« Reply #197 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 13:33:43 »

Italy actually has the 5th highest average age in the world - so on that basis it makes a lot of sense.
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Flashheart

« Reply #198 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 14:18:11 »

The death rate of confirmed cases is at nearly 4% in America, although they have a fucked up health system.

And US stocks tumble 7% as soon as they open before being temporarily halted. Lots of people reckon it's going to be a seriously bad crash.
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RedRag

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« Reply #199 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 14:25:42 »

Potentially could just make Ifollow available to everyone, possibly not going to get the same kind of revenue but could help
Because temporary and exceptional and with the club retaining 70% of the fee it could certainly help.  By no means impossible that it will come to this.  Although a few mates or families gathered together would diminish viewer revenue potential, unlike actual gates at the CG.  

Perhaps some advertising might help also, eg Andrex, handgel and tinned food?  Imagine Cruising by contrast can't be too optimistic at present.
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horlock07

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« Reply #200 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 14:43:49 »

The death rate of confirmed cases is at nearly 4% in America, although they have a fucked up health system.

And US stocks tumble 7% as soon as they open before being temporarily halted. Lots of people reckon it's going to be a seriously bad crash.

Did I read somewhere that if you get compulsorily quarantined in a US hospital you have to pay for the privilege, nice!
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Batch
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« Reply #201 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 14:51:38 »

Because temporary and exceptional and with the club retaining 70% of the fee it could certainly help.  By no means impossible that it will come to this.  Although a few mates or families gathered together would diminish viewer revenue potential, unlike actual gates at the CG. 

If it came to closed door games or a delay in the season then the FA will have to work out how to financially help out the likes of us. Assuming the Government doesn't legislate financial relaxation to help cashflow.

iFollow revenues won't cut it .
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« Reply #202 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 14:53:03 »

Did I read somewhere that if you get compulsorily quarantined in a US hospital you have to pay for the privilege, nice!

Land of the free...but not in cash terms.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #203 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 14:54:58 »

Did I read somewhere that if you get compulsorily quarantined in a US hospital you have to pay for the privilege, nice!
There was a guy on the radio the other day explaining why they have and will continue to have a massive rate of underdetection and hence more infections due to not diagnosing cases who then continue to wander round infecting people. At the moment, they don't have enough testing kits. They're ramping up production but it's going to be a race as to whether they can outstrip the rate of the virus spreading. Even if they do, lots of people who should be getting tested won't because while the tests themselves are free, associated costs will vary from state to state and even hospital to hospital. In some places it will be completely free. In others, the test will be free but the patient will be expected to pay for the doctor/nurse to administer the test, the lab time to analyse the results, the room in the hospital where the test is administered etc i..e only the test kit will be free, you'll get billed for everything else which could run into 1000s of dollars. Add in that there's no paid sick leave in the US and lots of people are not going to be able to afford to self-isolate or to even get tested to see if they should. It's a recipe for a disastrous failure to contain the spread.

Never has the case been so starkly made that the NHS and the welfare state are a public good from which we all benefit.
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Red Frog
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« Reply #204 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 15:07:06 »

If it came to closed door games or a delay in the season then the FA will have to work out how to financially help out the likes of us. Assuming the Government doesn't legislate financial relaxation to help cashflow.

iFollow revenues won't cut it .

I do wonder actually. 70% of income from iFollow subs at £10 in the UK - I wonder if the club clear £7 net on tickets once all matchday costs have been accounted for. If average ticket price is say £16 with STs and concessions (and I bet it's less), £7 would be over 40% margin, which I'll wager is rather more than we make on matchdays. Just a question of how many people would sign up.

Worst thing is it could create a habit...
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Tout ce que je sais de plus sûr à propos de la moralité et des obligations des hommes, c'est au football que je le dois. - Albert Camus
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« Reply #205 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 15:13:57 »

One thing I didn't realise is how much more widespread this already is compared to other major viruse outbreaks. I've always said its going to be like SARS was...but it isn't



             Year        Cases      Deaths      Mort     Countries
Ebola      1976,      33577,    13562,      40.4,     9
Nipah      1998,         513,        398,      77.6,     2
SARS      2002,       8096,        774,       9.6,      29
MERS      2012,       2494,        858,      34.4,     28   
COVID-19 2020,  111365,      3892,        3.5      102

Thank crap that the mortality rate is "only" 3.5% in mostly in "Rooney terroritory".
If it really takes hold though....but I guess signs from China are encouraging
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« Reply #206 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 15:17:29 »

I do wonder actually. 70% of income from iFollow subs at £10 in the UK - I wonder if the club clear £7 net on tickets once all matchday costs have been accounted for. If average ticket price is say £16 with STs and concessions (and I bet it's less), £7 would be over 40% margin, which I'll wager is rather more than we make on matchdays. Just a question of how many people would sign up.

Worst thing is it could create a habit...

You have a point, season ticket holders would presumably get it free (home games)? Plus a fair few technophobes that wouldn't bother/be able to.

Its interesting point you make though. Could be right.
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horlock07

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« Reply #207 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 15:25:47 »

There was a guy on the radio the other day explaining why they have and will continue to have a massive rate of underdetection and hence more infections due to not diagnosing cases who then continue to wander round infecting people.

Amazing how much America and Iran are similar (Iran do not test which is why its been so lively over there!)
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #208 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 15:43:49 »

I guess signs from China are encouraging
They're not. The Chinese have basically imposed martial law over wide areas of the country to contain it, including the full nine yards of Cultural Revolution style public beatings, disappearing people etc. Not sure any western country would be prepared to accept that so we can't really draw much from their model
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #209 on: Monday, March 9, 2020, 15:48:19 »

We’re booked in to visit at the end of the month. I’ve got no problem with it but Mrs Audrey had a very bad bout of pneumonia a few years back which left her with a scarred lung. Not surprisingly, she’s a bit more wary.

Not sure what to do, tbh.
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