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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 1188171 times)
horlock07

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« Reply #30 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:02:05 »

My Daughter's class have just returned from a skiing trip to northern Italy, and straight back to school. I'm sure none of them came into contact with the virus, but it's obviously going to be a concern for the next couple of weeks!

You better not post on here for the next 14 days then!
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #31 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:08:54 »

You better not post on here for the next 14 days then!

Or only post in this thread?
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Gnasher

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« Reply #32 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:23:51 »

You better not post on here for the next 14 days then!

 Cheesy My daughter didn't go on the trip, but several of her friends did. I look forward to seeing you all at the CG on Tuesday  Puke
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horlock07

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« Reply #33 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:31:55 »

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Flashheart

« Reply #34 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:32:53 »

Gnasher is going to kill everybody. If you see him outside then you should hit him with sticks and stuff.
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« Reply #35 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:44:55 »

Gnasher is going to kill everybody. If you see him outside then you should hit him with sticks and stuff.

A long stick, to avoid contamination.
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Flashheart

« Reply #36 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:46:57 »

Good point.

Better still - throw bricks from afar.
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Gnasher

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« Reply #37 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 11:50:50 »

Good point.

Better still - throw bricks from afar.

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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #38 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 14:45:53 »

The CDC stats show that the flu had a death rate of approximately 0.1% in 2018-2019.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

CDC only covers data extrapolated for the US. WHO covers data for...the world.

WHO states cases of severe seasonal flu are 3-5m, with 250k-600k deaths annually.

As I've already stated. The 2019-nCoV case rate is already starting to plateau. Especially in the countr(ies)y with most cases. China with around 79k of the 81/82k cases worldwide. Most other countries have very low cases. Only Italy seemingly having a higher case to death ratio. But we must stress. The numbers are still very small.

All this will be fucking chip paper by May.
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'Incessant Nonsense'

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You smell the gunpowder and you see the blood, you know what that means?
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You take the heads so that you don't ever forget.'
Bob's Orange
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« Reply #39 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 14:50:03 »

CDC only covers data extrapolated for the US. WHO covers data for...the world.

WHO states cases of severe seasonal flu are 3-5m, with 250k-600k deaths annually.

As I've already stated. The 2019-nCoV case rate is already starting to plateau. Especially in the countr(ies)y with most cases. China with around 79k of the 81/82k cases worldwide. Most other countries have very low cases. Only Italy seemingly having a higher case to death ratio. But we must stress. The numbers are still very small.

All this will be fucking chip paper by May.

Don't forget Iran is almost certainly lying about its numbers. They have a 10% death rate which doesn't correlate with the rest of the world.
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we've been to Aberdeen, we hate the Hibs, they make us spew up, so make some noise,
the gorgie boys, for Hearts in Europe.
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« Reply #40 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 15:10:24 »


WHO states cases of severe seasonal flu are 3-5m, with 250k-600k deaths annually.


Provide the figures for ALL cases of flu or your numbers are meaningless and should be ignored.

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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #41 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 15:22:19 »

(1) Even if we had a figure for deaths from severe cases of coronavirus, how deadly a virus is in severe cases tells us nothing about how deadly it is to catch. That's a complete red herring.

(2)I couldn't find a figure for global infections so I extrapolated the figure for the US across the world...

39 million cases of flu in the US is about 12% of the population. Let's be slightly cautious and say it's 6% for the entire world(I know that could still be too high).

6% of the world's population is about 450,000,000.

Estimated flu deaths each year are 250,000-500,000

That gives a fatality rate of 0.055-0.11%

1. It wouldn't be "deadly to catch". It's likely it is highly contagious, like the flu. But SO FAR contagion to deaths is low and importantly (and already pointed out) the case rate has started to plateau.

2. I already mentioned the "Flu would have to have 500m cases worldwide" to match the 500k and 0.1%  US death data from CDC. Yet that would be a pure guess. Which would be understandable for Covid-19 as it doesn't have enough historical data. With Flu (for Worldwide figures), we should not be having to guess. You probs missed me mention it, amongst my letter to the Lancet.

I think we'll both be choosing figures that suit both our narratives but until Covid-19 epidemic has ended then we both won't know the real figures. Should be done with by May.

On another note, there is quite a bit about the source of Covid-19 being a developed and released pathogen (of a Flu variant) from a Lab in Wuhan.

What concerns me more is that the current UK government seemed very slow to react. Maybe they have information that means they didn't need to respond erratically or rush people home? Or maybe they're so inept that if a scenario developed, where a much quicker and contagious pathogen were leaked here, our current government don't appear as equipped to deal with or respond to a much more threatening outbreak. When mirrored to their recent response.

And yes this is coming from someone who previously worked in a capacity to respond to such attacks. I was confident back then and I was confident in my colleagues as well as any contingency. I'm sure plenty on here will have a good chuckle "NoShop?! Trained as part of an Emergency Response team relating to Chemical & Nuclear warfare? Massive lolz."

Anyway, that's another story.
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'Incessant Nonsense'

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'I'm gonna tell you the secret.
There's a threat, you end it and you don't feel ashamed about enjoying it.
You smell the gunpowder and you see the blood, you know what that means?
It means you're alive. You've won.
You take the heads so that you don't ever forget.'
The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #42 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 15:29:17 »

According to this, there were 29 million cases of flu in the USA. It’s the complications brought on by the flu that kills people.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182
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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #43 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 15:29:42 »

Provide the figures for ALL cases of flu or your numbers are meaningless and should be ignored.



Of course they should, oh master of the TEF.

I can only use world data that is available and that data comes from the WHO. Seeing as the WHO deal with data concerning the World and not just one country.
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'Incessant Nonsense'

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'I'm gonna tell you the secret.
There's a threat, you end it and you don't feel ashamed about enjoying it.
You smell the gunpowder and you see the blood, you know what that means?
It means you're alive. You've won.
You take the heads so that you don't ever forget.'
BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #44 on: Thursday, February 27, 2020, 15:33:13 »

Don't forget Iran is almost certainly lying about its numbers. They have a 10% death rate which doesn't correlate with the rest of the world.

Indeed but even then we are still taking very small numbers. I wouldn't necessarily trust Iranian press releases, then again - I don't trust many press releases any more   :-(
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'Incessant Nonsense'

______________________________________________________________

'I'm gonna tell you the secret.
There's a threat, you end it and you don't feel ashamed about enjoying it.
You smell the gunpowder and you see the blood, you know what that means?
It means you're alive. You've won.
You take the heads so that you don't ever forget.'
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