Let's Get Political!

[horlock07]

There is a fun game to be hand on Twitter this morning, Tory or Corbynista as they both seem to be saying exactly the same things.

Talking of Twitter I see Spacey formerly of this Parish has been busy.

https://x.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1715251166441775197

[Bob's Orange]

He 100% knows what he's talking about. It's his life's work!

I'm just saying that it seems odd that a 1% decrease in voters in a constituency, and a marginal gain in another, is being spun as a rocking win.

It's a really interesting way of analysing the statistics isn't it? In one way overturning a 25k deficit is pretty monumental (which is what Labour will present), but when you take the statistic you stated, it doesn't quite look as impressive. (which is what the tories will present)

[horlock07]

It's a really interesting way of analysing the statistics isn't it? In one way overturning a 25k deficit is pretty monumental (which is what Labour will present), but when you take the statistic you stated, it doesn't quite look as impressive. (which is what the tories will present)

Its all down to proportion of the vote rather than total number isn't it, you are never going to get similar number of votes on a much smaller turnout. As noted previously this is why the number of vote as a statistic is being grasped on Twitter by Tories and Corbynista's alike as a way to show their man/party did better.

Not sure where the evidence of the Tory vote staying at home is coming from as how would you know bar possibly Tory tellers at the door  and how big an effect that actually has, and the Tory's stating this as fact all has an air of Mandy Rice Davis about it.

[Bob's Orange]

Its all down to proportion of the vote rather than total number isn't it, you are never going to get similar number of votes on a much smaller turnout. As noted previously this is why the number of vote as a statistic is being grasped on Twitter by Tories and Corbynista's alike as a way to show their man/party did better.

Not sure where the evidence of the Tory vote staying at home is coming from as how would you know bar possibly Tory tellers at the door  and how big an effect that actually has, and the Tory's stating this as fact all has an air of Mandy Rice Davis about it.

That's a really good point.

[Mooneyraker]

Indeed, we won't ever know but I'm going to chuck a fiver on a Conservative win at the GE for a laugh as the odds will be decent right now.

[ThreeDrawsMentality]

Pollsters Survation compiled 'intention to turn out' data prior to the Mids Bed by-election.

They found 52% of 2019 Conservative voters intended to turn out, and 58% of 2019 Labour voters intended to turn out. Given their voting intention poll compiled from the same research was similar to outcome, pours some cold water on the 'no swing' to Labour narrative.

[Mooneyraker]

Pollsters Survation compiled 'intention to turn out' data prior to the Mids Bed by-election.

They found 52% of 2019 Conservative voters intended to turn out, and 58% of 2019 Labour voters intended to turn out. Given their voting intention poll compiled from the same research was similar to outcome, pours some cold water on the 'no swing' to Labour narrative.

That's interesting...

[Audrey]

Good on Italy preempting and banning this horrendous stuff.

https://x.com/clownworld_/status/1715327008064909498?s=61&t=HYPly50GSEZLTKzNdaNp7Q

[Nemo]

Good on Italy preempting and banning this horrendous stuff.

https://x.com/clownworld_/status/1715327008064909498?s=61&t=HYPly50GSEZLTKzNdaNp7Q

Literally cancelling cultures.

That's a science joke that is.

[Wobbly Bob]

Indeed, we won't ever know but I'm going to chuck a fiver on a Conservative win at the GE for a laugh as the odds will be decent right now.

Won't be much of a laugh if they get in again I suspect.

Not tempted to go big on the bet then?  

Better still, just buy a pint with the stake money.

[Mooneyraker]

Won't be much a laugh if they get in again I suspect.

Not tempted to go big on the bet then? 

Better still, just buy a pint with the stake money.

I'll be sitting pretty with my £55 at least... 

[Wobbly Bob]

I'll be sitting pretty with my £55 at least... 

Yeah, there is that.

Betting on referendum outcomes would be a safer option if going big.
Three UK ones in the last 20 or so years and all with predictable outcomes backed up with a bit of research.

[Mooneyraker]

Yeah, there is that.

Betting on referendum outcomes would be a safer option if going big.
Three UK ones in the last 20 or so years and all with predictable outcomes backed up with a bit of research.

Yes, cut out the noise and the Leave vote was much more likely than the bookies made out.

[Audrey]

Don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

This is Irish PM Leo Varadker on his Twitter feed showing his faith in the Covid booster.

Zoom in and see no evidence of a syringe.

[fuzzy]

Don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

This is Irish PM Leo Varadker on his Twitter feed showing his faith in the Covid booster.

Zoom in and see no evidence of a syringe.

Zoom in and look and the syringe is there.