Let's Get Political!

[Batch]

if so, why not have that second poll

Sort answer: Because it would irrevocably knacker the Tory party vote.

Which is precisely why this needed to be cross party from the start, and needs to be cross party at the end - collective responsibility

[Batch]

I presume crash out will be voted down tomorrow

One would hope so.

[Batch]

Reckon tonight's vote is going to be tighter than a Nun's chuff. What odds on 48-52%?

[Pax Romana]

I think that the AG has ensured that it will be voted down with a reduced but still clear majority.

DUP are not going to support and ERG won't dare change without DUP.

Much as I now accept that we have to leave so why not get on with it, I think that voting it down is the right decision.  This deal leaves us nowhere for the future negotiations. 

[Flashheart]

ERG says no

[Batch]

ERG says no

interesting..

wonder what their play is, unless they think no deal is still a goer (I suppose it is right now)

[michael]

One way or another, the can can't be kicked any further down this road.

Yes it can. Thursday they could vote to extend, this can only go up until the EU elections in the summer, at which point the PM will no doubt push her deal again, except this time it will be with no opportunity to extend again. That, is the cliff edge.

[RobertT]

Well, it sort of leaves the options (not completely limited) to Leaving with no deal in place - which they will vote on, or withdrawing the request to leave entirely and coming back to it at a later date.  I can't see the latter going down well with the public and the former seems unlikely to get voted for in Parliament.  I presume the next steps would need to be a GE if they vote no to Hard exit, knowing they have not fulfilled the Referendum's wishes and electorate gets a final chance to have a say - vote for the party who will handle Brexit the way you want it.  If the country cannot decide to give a majority, then it plods along in the EU like a sulking naughty boy in the corner at EU meetings for the next few years.  If it votes in a majority for a soft version, we get that, if it votes in a party voting we get out with no deal, we serve notice again and just focus on post exit deal making, knowing the timeline will be longer than the notice period.  Get a few critical things sorted like residency/work permits but accept trade will be on WTO terms and Ireland is going to be a mess for a while again.  That will probably trigger some sort of UK crisis with the non English regions.

Sounds fun.

I might go watch a wall not quite being built as it gets challenged in the Court system.

[Ardiles]

She wouldn't be able to cling on that long.  Today really does feel like her last chance to get this through.

[RobertT]

Oh, and my math is assuming that as half the country voted to leave, a party standing on NOT leaving would struggle to get anywhere near enough votes to control Parliament as they would be limiting their available  vote before even considering their policies on other matters.

[Audrey]

But who would want to vote for a Corbyn led Labour government just because you may want a 2nd Referendum?

[RobertT]

Personally think the country just needs to suck up a Hard Brexit now.  Start planning for shit in Ireland, accept no trade deals and crack open the tinned corned beef and spam.

[Flashheart]

I could send over some food parcels. 

[Audrey]

Maybe Africa could have a concert for us

[RobertT]

I could probably send some Chlorinated Chicken if Hard Brexit is voted for I guess, or maybe an entire chicken in a can?