Let's Get Political!

[Ardiles]

Brexit means Brexit
but brand meanz Heinz


expected a confidence vote will be triggered, no doubt he'll win and be safe for a year.

Holding the vote so quickly definitely helps him.  Gives very little time for the rebels to grow their numbers.

I also note that Johnson was given notice by Graham Brady that this was happening yesterday.  So he's had a head start on everyone else.  Does feel as if the systems is working in his favour.

[Batch]

yeah. damaging but not fatal

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

Boris will get his kicking in the GE - along with the rest of them.

If I had a prospective Tory candidate knocking on my door I’d tell him he may well be the best constituency MP in the country but if voting for you means Boris gets in, forget it mate.

[Nemo]

I'm not a seasoned political watcher or anything, but I think Johnson might lose this (or at least get close enough that he has to go anyway).

With May, she had clearly earned the emnity of one particular branch of the party (the ERG/harder Brexiteers) but the rest of the party weren't so firmly against her.

Johnson seems to have smaller scale problems everywhere - losing to Labour in the north, the Lib Dems in the leafy southern seats, one of the least popular cabinet members with actual Conservative members. It's a bit death by a thousand cuts but I could definitely see a majority of Tory MPs thinking they'd be better off with a Michael Howard style boring-but-inoffensive caretaker leader. I don't think that would be Truss/Sunak as both are too ambitious and too big a personality, but I could see Ben Wallace or someone who isn't likely to be as easily plastered all over opposition leaflets as Johnson.

Basically I think Audrey's point above will be mirrored in every constituency. The Tories don't need an inspirational leader right now, but they need one that isn't an absolute sheet anchor on their chances.

[The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey]

180 is the target number for the malcontents to win the no confidence vote. Not sure if there are that many willing to put their head over the parapet.

[Nemo]

180 is the target number for the malcontents to win the no confidence vote. Not sure if there are that many willing to put their head over the parapet.

They don't need to put their head above the parapet though right? It's a secret ballot. Half the cabinet could vote against and we'd never know.

[Ardiles]

The system definitely favours Johnson, though.  Vote triggered when 15% of Tory MPs demand it, but 50% needed to move him on.  And because they arrange the vote immediately - which is quite unusual in politics - those wanting him out need to go from 15% to 50% in the blink of an eye.

Practically speaking, could he carry on if, say, 40% of his MPs voted for him to go?  That's another matter.

[Bob's Orange]

The system definitely favours Johnson, though.  Vote triggered when 15% of Tory MPs demand it, but 50% needed to move him on.  And because they arrange the vote immediately - which is quite unusual in politics - those wanting him out need to go from 15% to 50% in the blink of an eye.

Practically speaking, could he carry on if, say, 40% of his MPs voted for him to go?  That's another matter.

The bloke on the news last night said a vote, regardless of the result is generally a bad sign for a PM anyway so he's almost certainly going to be gone sooner rather than later. Difficult to say how it will go but as it's an anonymous vote surely that's a bad thing for Boris as surely most of them think he's an imbecile and likely to be a liability for upcoming elections? 

[horlock07]

I think we will probably end up joining some sort of semi-in semi-out thing like the EEA, it's been floated a few times in recent weeks by Tory voices (remainer and Brexiteer). It'll be politically painful in the short term but probably feels like an actual end point most if not everyone could make peace with. Would need a prominent Brexiteer voice to back it and make it seem an acceptable compromise though I think.

I see certain prominent Brexiters have started to float the narrative that leaving the SM was a silly idea in economic terms (if only someone has raised the issue at the time), rather than owning their shit, so I suspect we will be creeping towards BINO over time, I note polling seems to suggest that all over the country its being accepted that it ain't going well.

Do you think Labour could win the next election with a rejoin the EU ticket?

Nope would just play into the Brexiteers and their propagandists hands that making it a simple yes/no debate, but a manifesto stating that whilst they respect the result of the referendum they will look to revise the deal to reduce and minimise the economic damage could be a vote winner, remembering that the vote said simply leave the EU, never gave a mandate for the economy fucking that the Tories have negotiated.

Its worth bearing in mind that few of those on the remaining side are as ideologically wedded to the EU as Brexiteers like to portray, they were concerned about the societal and economic damage that they perceived would occur, for Labour to identify this and incorporate trying to rectify the shit show as a manifesto pledge could gain them some leverage, as long as they avoid the trap which will be laid by the inevitable bleating in the right wing press about it. 

[horlock07]

I'm not a seasoned political watcher or anything, but I think Johnson might lose this (or at least get close enough that he has to go anyway).

With May, she had clearly earned the emnity of one particular branch of the party (the ERG/harder Brexiteers) but the rest of the party weren't so firmly against her.

Johnson seems to have smaller scale problems everywhere - losing to Labour in the north, the Lib Dems in the leafy southern seats, one of the least popular cabinet members with actual Conservative members. It's a bit death by a thousand cuts but I could definitely see a majority of Tory MPs thinking they'd be better off with a Michael Howard style boring-but-inoffensive caretaker leader. I don't think that would be Truss/Sunak as both are too ambitious and too big a personality, but I could see Ben Wallace or someone who isn't likely to be as easily plastered all over opposition leaflets as Johnson.

Basically I think Audrey's point above will be mirrored in every constituency. The Tories don't need an inspirational leader right now, but they need one that isn't an absolute sheet anchor on their chances.

I think there are various nuances to all of this and what people will actually want long term.

If he loses then who is going to be new leader, its the ultimate poison chalice taking over with a pretty crap recession potentially looming, a cost of living crisis which could see a large proportion of the electorate having to make pretty simple but big choices between eating and keeping warm coming up, policies over the last 12 years creating looming problems with the NHS/Police etc.

Likewise I would imagine despite what they may say in public opposition parties would rather he stayed for a while as he is making the party ever more toxic and scarred the longer he stays possibly ensuring a long period in the wilderness for the Tory party.

Interesting times ahead for anyone not wedded to a rosette.

[Nemo]

On the local angle, I see Justin Tomlinson has said he'll be backing Johnson in the confidence vote.

Robert Buckland has, thus far, not commented either way.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

I'd be surprised if BJ survived this, but then nothing would surprise me with the tories.

[horlock07]

I'd be surprised if BJ survived this, but then nothing would surprise me with the tories.

I suspect he will survive the vote, but that means not a great deal in the short/medium term as Thatcher, Major and May will confirm.

For the political observer who does not have a dog in the fight its a fantastic soap opera to watch, on that basis I hope he wins.

[Boy About Town]

I'd be surprised if BJ survived this, but then nothing would surprise me with the tories.

1/5 with bookmakers to survive

[Nemo]

I suspect he will survive the vote, but that means not a great deal in the short/medium term as Thatcher, Major and May will confirm.

For the political observer who does not have a dog in the fight its a fantastic soap opera to watch, on that basis I hope he wins.

Surely the "bantz" option is for him to win 52% of the vote to 48%.