Trust look to buy the CG

[RobertT]

I'll start by saying I am very positive about the CG future and the JV being in place.

But, the club (therefore, Clem) came out of the deal smelling of roses.  They got an asset gifted to them - 50% ownership in a Freehold and a 250 year Lease while reducing operating expenses.  That will make the Balance Sheet look a lot more enticing to outside viewers.

You have to think, for all the fun Clem does seem to have being involved, his initial motivation had to be around the potential he saw for Axis getting a leg up in stadium builds.  You don't spunk over a million quid on a football club without either being completely stupid or seeing some sort of pay off down the line (which is what he originally gave over to Power).  I doubt he thought he'd end up owning the club, but it likely makes his end game more realistic, especially thanks to Eady.

The trick is to keep the club from needing too much of his company's money before he gets the development underway.  I can see an exit strategy where he leaves not long after the contracts are all signed for development, or at least underway.  The business will look a lot more appealing to outside investors at that point and he'll have his original plan sorted.  And fair fucks to him if that is the way it pans out, we all win, sort of.  The challenge is how long that takes vs. the need for investment in Operating Expenditure to keep the club competing.  He is probably the best owner we've had for setting the Business up for success and likely one of the worst for getting a team on the pitch that we should be able to achieve!

[Robinz]

Robert... 100% agree with your posting.

[DMC]

I'll start by saying I am very positive about the CG future and the JV being in place.

But, the club (therefore, Clem) came out of the deal smelling of roses.  They got an asset gifted to them - 50% ownership in a Freehold and a 250 year Lease while reducing operating expenses.  That will make the Balance Sheet look a lot more enticing to outside viewers.

You have to think, for all the fun Clem does seem to have being involved, his initial motivation had to be around the potential he saw for Axis getting a leg up in stadium builds.  You don't spunk over a million quid on a football club without either being completely stupid or seeing some sort of pay off down the line (which is what he originally gave over to Power).  I doubt he thought he'd end up owning the club, but it likely makes his end game more realistic, especially thanks to Eady.

The trick is to keep the club from needing too much of his company's money before he gets the development underway.  I can see an exit strategy where he leaves not long after the contracts are all signed for development, or at least underway.  The business will look a lot more appealing to outside investors at that point and he'll have his original plan sorted.  And fair fucks to him if that is the way it pans out, we all win, sort of.  The challenge is how long that takes vs. the need for investment in Operating Expenditure to keep the club competing.  He is probably the best owner we've had for setting the Business up for success and likely one of the worst for getting a team on the pitch that we should be able to achieve!

100 percent agree with this. I think as fans we need to look at the bigger picture and of course i want success now as much as anyone else does but if we have to sacrifice short term success for a potential long term bigger and better picture i think it is worth it. Now what we don't want is this dragging as it will end in disaster. I do think though that realistically we have to give him this season to judge properly.

[UTR]

100 percent agree with this. I think as fans we need to look at the bigger picture and of course i want success now as much as anyone else does but if we have to sacrifice short term success for a potential long term bigger and better picture i think it is worth it. Now what we don't want is this dragging as it will end in disaster. I do think though that realistically we have to give him this season to judge properly.

I think it’s fair enough to give them this season to judge them. The 1st season was off the back of a circus, the 2nd season sounds like there was too many other things going on, this season is a clean slate to judge on.

I do think it’s fair as well though that if the standard isn’t up to it this season then people can decided whether or not to drop off. We did well to build the attendances up again so it would be a shame to lose that but if this season doesn’t hit the expected standards then I don’t want to hear the club peddling sob stories about reduced attendances when numbers inevitably drop.

Sacrificing the short term for long term success as a direction is fair enough and understandable but only if there’s not the naive expectation that the current numbers will persist with it. If they’re hoping to be able to rely on those numbers every year then the plan is flawed.

[Tails]

Swindon fans are extraordinarily fickle and have goldfish memories. If success long term is achieved they'll be back singing about how loyal they are, etc.

[horlock07]

I'll start by saying I am very positive about the CG future and the JV being in place.

But, the club (therefore, Clem) came out of the deal smelling of roses.  They got an asset gifted to them - 50% ownership in a Freehold and a 250 year Lease while reducing operating expenses.  That will make the Balance Sheet look a lot more enticing to outside viewers.

You have to think, for all the fun Clem does seem to have being involved, his initial motivation had to be around the potential he saw for Axis getting a leg up in stadium builds.  You don't spunk over a million quid on a football club without either being completely stupid or seeing some sort of pay off down the line (which is what he originally gave over to Power).  I doubt he thought he'd end up owning the club, but it likely makes his end game more realistic, especially thanks to Eady.

The trick is to keep the club from needing too much of his company's money before he gets the development underway.  I can see an exit strategy where he leaves not long after the contracts are all signed for development, or at least underway.  The business will look a lot more appealing to outside investors at that point and he'll have his original plan sorted.  And fair fucks to him if that is the way it pans out, we all win, sort of.  The challenge is how long that takes vs. the need for investment in Operating Expenditure to keep the club competing.  He is probably the best owner we've had for setting the Business up for success and likely one of the worst for getting a team on the pitch that we should be able to achieve!

Whilst broadly agreeing its worth noting that

a) the clubs piece of the purchase price was c.£1.15m, which whilst funded by the ET is I suspect a fair bit less than Clem has put into the club both in terms of investment and settling the debentures (Which I suspect was a pre-condition of the Eady Trust funding the purchase).

b) in terms of the balance sheet it may look healthier in basic financial terms, but its still worth bearing in mind that the ground still is not unencumbered real estate, its a very specialist piece of kit with limited planning/development (and by extension return) potential and thus its attractiveness will only really be for those wishing to own a football club.

c) I not sure Clem is having that much fun any more, which would explain his silence, I imagine being accused of this that and the other all over the net regularly gets to you after a bit.

d) I am still not convinced that Clem sees this as some sort of passport to stadium building nirvana, there are very few contractors in the world with the scale to build stadia (and they would make Clem look like your average sole trader with a transit van in scale terms), plus considering the state of the construction industry at the moment, the spiralling construction inflation being experienced and the general financial mess of the country he's a bloody brave man to be heading that way at the moment, betting the house on building a couple of stands and a hotel.

Much as with Power it seems to involve a huge amount of fart arsing about for risky and small returns, with the best will in the world unless he gets us to the Championship I can't see him making more from this than he could have done by doing simple property investment/development, even if he builds the stuff the yields/uplift aren't great.

TBH its where I think Power fucked up at the last moment, if he had got the training ground over the line (And he got it 95% there!) he would have made some decent cash, it was a bloody good planning consent he basically got then fucked up for whatever reason.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

I see my taking the piss about Otis Khan on here now seems to have become some sort of legit rumour, I can see why Tans does it now! Perhaps I should start posting some of the real legit rumours I've heard about what Power is up to and really sets the hares off!!

TBF here is getting little better than Twitter/Facebook these days.

It amazes me how people can explicitly state that they are taking the piss on here and some people don't get it.

[UTR]

Swindon fans are extraordinarily fickle and have goldfish memories. If success long term is achieved they'll be back singing about how loyal they are, etc.

Yes no doubt, always been the way. But in the intermediary seasons before the success, if there’s no expectation in the plan for crowds to drop then it’s naive.

When I say that I don’t mean the core fanbase like most of us, I’m talking the more pick and choose and less hardcore fanbase. Everything’s so expensive at the moment (including ticket prices going up) that if someone needs to make a choice between this and something else, then they’ll likely drop off in the short term if the goal is to sacrifice short term challenging to build for the long term.

[RobertT]

@Horlock, It may not be to turn Axis into some sort of stadium building specialist, but it is a great piece of PR to use to build your firms reputation in a new market (which the UK sort of still was for Axis when he got onboard).  I imagine he thought he'd be long gone by now and certainly not the person having to lead the damned thing.  Don't forget the first post on this very thread was 6 years ago.

Axis were probably looking for more than being a small part on larger projects - something to hang their hat on to get bigger contracts.

Where we find ourselves today is a different world, no doubt.  He looks to be, from the outside, working on a way to mitigate his ongoing exposure while still getting some of that return.

If they finance the construction then you can think Axis makes a decent amount (not life changing) from the contracts they pick-up, including running the show it seems, given the Axis chap is leading the project for the JV.

They add 2-3m to the Assets owned by the business - a bit more than the original sum paid because it also got them the 250 year lease.  Yes, it's not true commercial real estate but it does have some value and it was not paid for by the business.  It's a big win when trying to show the business having some value.  He has the debt converted to Directors Loans, mostly.  That paints a very different picture of the business for a prospective investor - risk is reduced, the business has some assets.  Someone would actually have to pay to buy the business now - Clem could well earn enough to cover his losses and walk away with Axis a few quid better off and a decent project to use for marketing purposes.

I don't begrudge any of that either.

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

The trick is to keep the club from needing too much of his company's money before he gets the development underway.  I can see an exit strategy where he leaves not long after the contracts are all signed for development, or at least underway.  The business will look a lot more appealing to outside investors at that point and he'll have his original plan sorted.  And fair fucks to him if that is the way it pans out, we all win, sort of.  The challenge is how long that takes vs. the need for investment in Operating Expenditure to keep the club competing.

vs how much the football club regresses in the mean time.

[DMC]

Whilst broadly agreeing its worth noting that

a) the clubs piece of the purchase price was c.£1.15m, which whilst funded by the ET is I suspect a fair bit less than Clem has put into the club both in terms of investment and settling the debentures (Which I suspect was a pre-condition of the Eady Trust funding the purchase).

b) in terms of the balance sheet it may look healthier in basic financial terms, but its still worth bearing in mind that the ground still is not unencumbered real estate, its a very specialist piece of kit with limited planning/development (and by extension return) potential and thus its attractiveness will only really be for those wishing to own a football club.

c) I not sure Clem is having that much fun any more, which would explain his silence, I imagine being accused of this that and the other all over the net regularly gets to you after a bit.

d) I am still not convinced that Clem sees this as some sort of passport to stadium building nirvana, there are very few contractors in the world with the scale to build stadia (and they would make Clem look like your average sole trader with a transit van in scale terms), plus considering the state of the construction industry at the moment, the spiralling construction inflation being experienced and the general financial mess of the country he's a bloody brave man to be heading that way at the moment, betting the house on building a couple of stands and a hotel.

Much as with Power it seems to involve a huge amount of fart arsing about for risky and small returns, with the best will in the world unless he gets us to the Championship I can't see him making more from this than he could have done by doing simple property investment/development, even if he builds the stuff the yields/uplift aren't great.

TBH its where I think Power fucked up at the last moment, if he had got the training ground over the line (And he got it 95% there!) he would have made some decent cash, it was a bloody good planning consent he basically got then fucked up for whatever reason.

I think point C is important. What gets me is that the majority of fans have all said at some point that there are outside influences at the club. I sometimes wish fans could maybe sit back and think what state the club could be in if there were not people at the club making sure that it is being ran better than it would be if they were not here.

I know people will call me a happy clapper etc but believe me i have said it on here, social medoia and directly to them that there is so much they should be doing better but i honestly believe that one day we will look back and be grateful to some of the people fans are battering at times and realise it would have been a lot worse

[Wobbly Bob]

We've not spent longer than 5 years in the bottom tier in one stretch.

If we are still in L2 at the end of 2024-25 then Clem will be under enormous pressure from the fans regardless of bigger picture & how rosy the CG development is looking at that time.

Hopefully Clem will be aware of that.
The knack will be marrying up ground redevelopment with on field success.
Much more difficult than it sounds.

[RobertT]

Lets be clear - if Clem had a million quid to just chuck against a wall (which would be the inference of saying he isn't in this to try and make some money), then why wouldn't he just be sponsoring the club like FGR do and covering the losses every year to keep his play thing going?

Nope, that doesn't compute for me.  That original investment simply had to be on a promise for something - and the logical conclusion has to be for his business.  Risky, yes.   Stupid, maybe.  However, it was clear we were headed down the path we now find ourselves - just it took a lot longer and he had to buy the damned thing to keep the "dream" alive.

"But he paid all the debt" - yes he did, because that's what makes an exit possible rather than flogging the thing for a quid in three years with a debt pile.  The debt still exists, just all due to him - way more risk than he was probably looking to expose himself to, but the paper exercise, combined with the ground purchase and potential development, give him a way out and may even still give him a small return when it all washes out.

[horlock07]

I think point C is important. What gets me is that the majority of fans have all said at some point that there are outside influences at the club. I sometimes wish fans could maybe sit back and think what state the club could be in if there were not people at the club making sure that it is being ran better than it would be if they were not here.

I know people will call me a happy clapper etc but believe me i have said it on here, social medoia and directly to them that there is so much they should be doing better but i honestly believe that one day we will look back and be grateful to some of the people fans are battering at times and realise it would have been a lot worse

On the whole outside influences issue, it seems to now be the case that the biggest bogeymen have fucked off over the last 3 months or so, do any of those who are ITK in reporting their reduced influence able to say why, have their investments been repaid or favours paid off, both of which may explain us apparently suddenly becoming skint?

[ChalkyWhiteIsGod]

On the whole outside influences issue, it seems to now be the case that the biggest bogeymen have fucked off over the last 3 months or so, do any of those who are ITK in reporting their reduced influence able to say why, have their investments been repaid or favours paid off, both of which may explain us apparently suddenly becoming skint?

Fantastic question.