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Author Topic: Where In The Table Do You Think Town Will Finish This Season?  (Read 2344 times)
BambooToTheFuture

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« on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 04:21:19 »

Looking at the current PPG chart (for the previous 10 games) got me thinking about where Town might finish in L2 this season, especially given a bit of additional data to peruse.

Apologies in advance for any errors but I think it's all correct (at the time of writing) and I've carried it over from the recent Matchday Fred as it seemed a relevant separate Topic to discuss.

Here's a "Final Table" based on all the teams current pts and then applying a ppg (based off their last 10 results) form using the data Jimmy posted. I've highlighted Town and other teams with key potential successes/dangers (based on their current form) so these are around the PO and relegation spots. Crawley and Crewe are interesting ones in the relegation stakes. Both Walsall and Sutton pose threats in the PO chase with Northampton potentially coming a Roy! If nothing else it is interesting to see where each team would/might finish according to said data. Currently Town would finish about 15th...which I don't think any of us would accept.

League Two PPG Final Table
==========================================
Team                    Played      Pts      PPG      Pts Gain     Prj Pts
==========================================
Stevenage                 28          57         1.7        30.6            88
Leyton Orient             31          63         1.3        19.5            83
Carlisle United            30          52         1.9        30.4            82
==========================================
Stockport County        29          45         2.0        34               79
Salford City                30          48         1.7        27.2            75   
Mansfield Town           29          46         1.6        27.2            73   
Northampton Town  29         50         1.3        22.1            72
==========================================
Walsall                      27         41         1.6        30.4            71
Sutton United           30         41         1.8        28.8            70
Doncaster Rovers        29         43          1.5        25.5            69
Bradford City              28         43          1.2        21.6            65
Colchester United        31         34          2.0       30                64
AFC Wimbledon           29         40         1.4        23.8             64
Tranmere Rovers         30         41         1.4        22.4             63
SWINDON TOWN      29         42         1.1        18.7            61   
Newport County          28          30         1.6        28.8            59
Grimsby Town             26          33         1.0        20               53
Barrow                       30          42         0.7        11.2            53   
Harrogate Town          28          27         1.4        25.2            52       
Hartlepool United        30          26         1.4        22.4            48
Crewe Alexandra      28         34         0.7        12.6            47           
Gillingham                28         24         1.1        19.8            44
==========================================
Crawley Town          27         25          0.9        17.1            42          
Rochdale                   30          23          0.6          9.6            33

I wonder what my fave chum SdM would make of this applied data? Although more importantly and as the thread suggests, where in the table do you think Town will finish the season?

I'm going to punt for about 11th. I think the form will improve slightly to maybe a max of 1.4ppg but not enough to clinch a PO place. Win v Sutton on Tues and that might change but it would still have to followed up with another win as the ppg form would then jump from 1.1 to 1.5 or 1.6 with back to back wins. Tough ask with where Town currently are at. That's not taking into account having a full complement of defensive players to select either. Yep, I'll go with a bit of a damp underachieving squib of just not quite having enough!

Verdict: A disappointing 11th* with questions of just what happened with the potential weakening the overall strength of the squad in January, when it seemed like Town should've been adding to what they already had to really mount a PO/Auto promotion push.








*I'm really hoping I'm totally wrong and would love to see Town grab 7th or 6th place; maybe even better. It just feels like there is too much to do in order to sustain that level of form when it hasn't been there all seen. Bleghh x
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Pookemon

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« Reply #1 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 05:03:46 »

After 5 or 6 games I said we looked like a lower mid table side.   Then we went on a little unbeaten run and seemed to have found a way to be fairly solid and get battling points, culminating in a cracking performance at mansfield which lead many of us to think that we could have a shot at autos.

Then it fell apart and the recruitment strategy has made it so much worse.

Can't see us winning many now as we don't have enough leaders on the pitch having sold them all, defence looks leaky, powder puff midfield and no pace up front.   It's a really poor, unbalanced squad.  

I'd say lower mid table, 15th looks about right, and a failure of monumental proportions in the shittest 4th tier we've seen since it became our new home.
« Last Edit: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 05:15:57 by Pookemon » Logged
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« Reply #2 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 07:17:13 »

Itís a bit disingenuous applying a current ppg as a constant ppg. Clubís form ebbs and flows. Agreed, at the moment itís difficult to see reasons why our form should improve dramatically but it did last season - especially those last 6 games or so which we won.

The fact that we, along with quite a few other clubs, have generally been poor are still in and around the POs does point to a substantially weaker league this season.

Iíve no doubt Sutton will kick the shit out of our lot on Tuesday.
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« Reply #3 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 07:39:11 »

Itís a bit disingenuous applying a current ppg as a constant ppg. Clubís form ebbs and flows. Agreed, at the moment itís difficult to see reasons why our form should improve dramatically but it did last season - especially those last 6 games or so which we won.

The fact that we, along with quite a few other clubs, have generally been poor are still in and around the POs does point to a substantially weaker league this season.

Iíve no doubt Sutton will kick the shit out of our lot on Tuesday.

ĎIíve no doubt Sutton will kick the shit out of our lot on Tuesdayí

Coincidently we fly from T5 on Wednesday and I did think about maybe leaving Tuesday afternoon and watching the game with a local hotel overnight stay and onto T5 sometime on Wednesday. Then I thought, nah fuck it, Iíve spent enough money this season on watching and supporting the team. Donít go and throw good money after bad. The extra spent on that would be better utilised on holibobs.
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Nomoreheroes
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« Reply #4 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 08:06:05 »

I've thought somewhere between 10-15th since the beginning of the season.
« Last Edit: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 18:43:33 by Nomoreheroes » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 08:38:02 »

In the cold light of day, I think we're a lot better than we showed yesterday. Add Khan, Lavinier, Tomlinson at least to that line up and we start to look a lot more promising. It seems unlikely that we've built a promotion winning side here but it's a poor division.

I think we'll sneak into the playoffs and who knows from there. But I wouldn't be surprised if we finished just outside either.
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« Reply #6 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 08:45:41 »

All depends on players being (and staying fit)

Strongest XI set up the right way can probably give anyone a game.
1 or 2 injuries / suspension and we can hold are own.

When that gets to 4 - 5 injuries / suspensions plus one or two off form we seem a bit limited.
Same could have been said about last seasons team but feel we had less depth but less need to use it.

Last year the run in seemed a very stable with regards to XI.

Ö.so for me, all depends on how quickly we can get back to full strength & stay at full strength.

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« Reply #7 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 08:49:19 »

Iíve said my bit on MacDonald but I assume the idea was that FBT was the MacDonald replacement (despite all ready being here) and JT was the FBT replacement.

Works well on paper. Apart from JT being injured.

A lot of people being really negative about our window. Think it was ok apart the whole MacDonald thing. Bringing in Austin, FBT & JT is very good business on paper. Donít even think losing Reed & Gladwin is a big loss either.

Think we will Ďlive or dieí on our MacDonald decision
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« Reply #8 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 09:12:44 »

With Khan back Cain and the Bristol will thrive and the midfield will be in a lot better shape
The return of Tomlinson and Laviner will also be key for us
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« Reply #9 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 09:49:49 »

We've got a tough run of fixtures coming up and we haven't picked up anywhere near enough points during this run of fixtures against poor to average sides.  

Just can't see where the points are going to come from to mount even a modest challenge for 7th.

Edit:  since the start of November we've played 10 games against teams in the mid table or below and won only 2 of them.   We also beat Northampton but very much against the run of play.
« Last Edit: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 10:02:34 by Pookemon » Logged
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« Reply #10 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 10:18:32 »

Since Mansfield away we have played 13 games won 3 drawn 3 and lost 7 scoring just 9 times and conceding 19 goals.

5 of those goals came in 1 game and we failed to score in 6 of those games.

I said pre season we would finish just outside the play offs, I see mid table still as being likely.
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« Reply #11 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 11:31:45 »

Expect us to finish mid-table now, this squad is one of the most unbalanced squads weíve ever had especially in the centre of the park. I donít think it has the consistency to do enough to reach the playoffs, we also have a complete absence of flair players which is part of the reason we are so boring to watch.

On the flip side Iím hopeful there will be a complete change of approach next season so almost wrote this season off in my mind.
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« Reply #12 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 11:44:03 »

Iíve said my bit on MacDonald but I assume the idea was that FBT was the MacDonald replacement (despite all ready being here) and JT was the FBT replacement.

Works well on paper. Apart from JT being injured.

A lot of people being really negative about our window. Think it was ok apart the whole MacDonald thing. Bringing in Austin, FBT & JT is very good business on paper. Donít even think losing Reed & Gladwin is a big loss either.

Think we will Ďlive or dieí on our MacDonald decision

I donít think it does work on paper or in reality though. Hutton saw so much less of the ball yesterday and one of the reasons was that FBTís instinct, when he was being pressed, was to default to his better foot, cut back and play the easy out ball to Clayton. He found it very difficult to open up and spread play to the right.

It was similar last season when we had Crichlow and left centre half. He would open up the left side for us - when Iandolo and Williamís paired up well from left centre mid and left wing back (see Oldham away). When Crichlow wasnít playing, we found it more difficult to have balance.

Maybe we do SDM a disservice and he knows more about football than he is given credit for, but a centre half pairing of FBT and Clayton is not a natural pairing and will stifle options for us to start attacks.  Brennan or Minturn should pair one of those two. Iím so frustrated how weíve ended up here. When weíve seen such desperate squad decline in years gone by, itís been because weíve been openly skint. Now, it just seems like utterly inept recruitment.
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« Reply #13 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 12:08:21 »

I donít think it does work on paper or in reality though. Hutton saw so much less of the ball yesterday and one of the reasons was that FBTís instinct, when he was being pressed, was to default to his better foot, cut back and play the easy out ball to Clayton. He found it very difficult to open up and spread play to the right.

It was similar last season when we had Crichlow and left centre half. He would open up the left side for us - when Iandolo and Williamís paired up well from left centre mid and left wing back (see Oldham away). When Crichlow wasnít playing, we found it more difficult to have balance.

Maybe we do SDM a disservice and he knows more about football than he is given credit for, but a centre half pairing of FBT and Clayton is not a natural pairing and will stifle options for us to start attacks.  Brennan or Minturn should pair one of those two. Iím so frustrated how weíve ended up here. When weíve seen such desperate squad decline in years gone by, itís been because weíve been openly skint. Now, it just seems like utterly inept recruitment.

Fair point. I mean it worked from a CB out, CB in perspective but Iíd definitely prefer a right footer and a left footer at CB.

Considering how long heíd been out I was surprised to see Clayton come straight back in. I expected to see Brennan & FBT.

Plenty of teams have played with two CBs using the foot and still be able to play both ways. I can see why it would hamper but shouldnít make it impossible. Plus it can always go in midfield and go back out Hutton.

Like off the top of my head - I donít remember any of Huttons attacking play coming straight from the CB to him and him running all the way forward with it
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« Reply #14 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 12:13:23 »

Quote from: DiV
Iíve said my bit on MacDonald but I assume the idea was that FBT was the MacDonald replacement (despite all ready being here) and JT was the FBT replacement.

Works well on paper. Apart from JT being injured.

A lot of people being really negative about our window. Think it was ok apart the whole MacDonald thing. Bringing in Austin, FBT & JT is very good business on paper. Donít even think losing Reed & Gladwin is a big loss either.

Think we will Ďlive or dieí on our MacDonald decision


kadji and Cain will need to show a hell of a lot more for me to agree.

and they may well do. but so far look like downgrades.  The problem is they don't have 10 games to settle in.
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