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Author Topic: Where In The Table Do You Think Town Will Finish This Season?  (Read 2341 times)
Jimmy QuitMoaning

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« Reply #15 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 12:16:43 »


kadji and Cain will need to show a hell of a lot more for me to agree.

and they may well do. but so far look like downgrades.  The problem is they don't have 10 games to settle in.

The thing is they're so young with hardly any experienced heads around them which comes down to Sandro again.
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ChalkyWhiteIsGod
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« Reply #16 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 12:31:19 »

Expect us to finish mid-table now, this squad is one of the most unbalanced squads weíve ever had especially in the centre of the park. I donít think it has the consistency to do enough to reach the playoffs, we also have a complete absence of flair players which is part of the reason we are so boring to watch.

On the flip side Iím hopeful there will be a complete change of approach next season so almost wrote this season off in my mind.

Maybe if we sack the spiv.
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« Reply #17 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 12:33:01 »

no, it comes to the model. who is dictating that?

Williams and Austin should be able to help anyway.

it just sometimes takes a while for players to settle. Matt Ritchie took 5 or 6 games before starting to show for example.
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« Reply #18 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 13:04:09 »

no, it comes to the model. who is dictating that?

Williams and Austin should be able to help anyway.

it just sometimes takes a while for players to settle. Matt Ritchie took 5 or 6 games before starting to show for example.

Matt Ritchie couldnít even get in our team the season before.
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Pookemon

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« Reply #19 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 13:10:34 »

Unfortunately we don't have 6 games for them to get up to speed.   Lose the next couple, which is a very real possibility, and we're probably done given the run in.
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« Reply #20 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 13:33:56 »

Quote from: Pookemon
Unfortunately we don't have 6 games for them to get up to speed.   Lose the next couple, which is a very real possibility, and we're probably done given the run in.

yes, totally agree.
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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #21 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 19:33:15 »

Itís a bit disingenuous applying a current ppg as a constant ppg. Clubís form ebbs and flows. Agreed, at the moment itís difficult to see reasons why our form should improve dramatically but it did last season - especially those last 6 games or so which we won.

The fact that we, along with quite a few other clubs, have generally been poor are still in and around the POs does point to a substantially weaker league this season.

Iíve no doubt Sutton will kick the shit out of our lot on Tuesday.

Yeah I totally agree Aud as form does and will change across the teams. I did add a note to this (Stockport needing to maintain an already impressive form for the rest of the season, to have a chance of breaking into the top 3 and likewise Crewe maybe having to up their form to avoid getting drawn into a relegation battle).

I have though applied the ppg from the last 10 games which is a minimum of one third of the most recent part of the season for all clubs; it's not like I've taken the last game played or last 3. It's probably sufficient enough data to see recent patterns to apply to some type of predicted final table, whilst also recognising that those figures could improve, decline or plateau.

Hopefully it does improve for the Town and something like the final 10 games see's an improvement but my doubts are that even with an 82% increase to 2ppg for the last 10 games of the season, Town would probably still only get a max of 68pts - which will just fall short by probably one win (or 3 draws) Hmmm...

But yes 100%, I noted this too that the division is clearly weaker. A reason why I looked at the data closer as Jimmy mentioned 75pts needed for 7th place and I thought that a tad overcooked. You only have to look at Orient who are kind of stumbling a little at present and form dipped to 1.3ppg but even on that form they would still likely get auto as they already have some insurance in the bag. Similar can be said of Northampton who would likely cling onto 7th place, despite also dipping to a form of 1.3ppg.

As Reg may have once said and might also still be muttering somewhere else 'There's too many variables to be certain of who will finish where at this stage.'

For whatever reason (and form data doesn't back it up at all) I think Town will actually beat Sutton on Tues but it'll likely be one of the many false dawns we've seen before; I then expect Town to revert to type and follow it up by losing the next match. Genuinely hope they don't and like my prediction of 11th place, I hope I get egg on my face. Nothing more than anything else, I would love Town to depart this wretched division in an upwards fashion; the sooner the better!
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Jimmy QuitMoaning

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« Reply #22 on: Sunday, February 12, 2023, 19:37:26 »

I think 75 is deemed as the safe number to ensure that a play off spot is guaranteed just like 52 points more a less guarantees staying up. I think you may be right that the points needed this season will be lower and 72/73 may be enough.
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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #23 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 00:40:03 »

I think 75 is deemed as the safe number to ensure that a play off spot is guaranteed just like 52 points more a less guarantees staying up. I think you may be right that the points needed this season will be lower and 72/73 may be enough.

Hey Jim,

I had a quick look and in the last 27yrs (with 24 teams playing in the bottom tier), only 4 times has a side needed 75pts to obtain a play-off spot, with once being enough to obtain an auto spot. You're correct though that 75pts is a "safe" points tally to secure a PO spot. Every season (with a 24 team division), teams that scored 75pts definitely got in the play-offs every time and usually has finished in 4th or 5th (with one getting autos once as mentioned). Obviously we can discount the 2019/2020 L2 "PPG Season" as that was curtailed with 10ish games to play and we all know who won that season anyway!

Yep, looks like in both zones of the POs and Relegation that teams will need sufficiently less to stay above either dotted line. The low "Football League Trapdoor Safety" tally is likely due to Rochdale and one of Crawley or Gills being so poor (Crewe strangely do need to watch out based on form though and I think Gills might leapfrog Crawley as the stats suggest at present) with something like 45pts probably being enough to stay up. Another indicator of how poor you'd have to be to go down and on reflection of the whole division in general. I'd go as low as possibly 70pts for the final PO spot though but I think it could be tighter than Hetty Green!  Wink
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #24 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 08:32:28 »

There are C words that can be levelled at a lot of people at our club, but the C word that I think it important is 'consistency'. Both on the pitch and off it, I don't think everyone is pulling in the right/same direction. Off it, I think losing Chorley and replacing him with Sandro and his philosophy just doesn't appear to align to what Clem and Rob Angus want from the club. (in my opinion)

On the pitch, we currently have issues with suspension and injuries and not enough depth at the back which is holding us back. I think with everyone fit we have a first 15 that should be good enough for the play-offs but to get there, the players are going to have to learn how to play under JM very quickly and adapt to his methods and no doubt high standards. I'm not sure we have the time to do that in the remaining games.

So in a roundabout way I've made my bed and 'settled' for a mid-table finish this season. I think getting anything above that we are going to need a huge slice of luck and go on a very good run, not something we have done for a while now. It's a massive disappointment and one the club really have to do better, starting with getting Jonny Williams on a longer deal and showing some intent in the summer.
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« Reply #25 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 08:37:33 »

We seem to be getting worse, consistently.
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« Reply #26 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 08:37:57 »

There are C words that can be levelled at a lot of people at our club, but the C word that I think it important is 'consistency'. Both on the pitch and off it, I don't think everyone is pulling in the right/same direction. Off it, I think losing Chorley and replacing him with Sandro and his philosophy just doesn't appear to align to what Clem and Rob Angus want from the club. (in my opinion)

On the pitch, we currently have issues with suspension and injuries and not enough depth at the back which is holding us back. I think with everyone fit we have a first 15 that should be good enough for the play-offs but to get there, the players are going to have to learn how to play under JM very quickly and adapt to his methods and no doubt high standards. I'm not sure we have the time to do that in the remaining games.

So in a roundabout way I've made my bed and 'settled' for a mid-table finish this season. I think getting anything above that we are going to need a huge slice of luck and go on a very good run, not something we have done for a while now. It's a massive disappointment and one the club really have to do better, starting with getting Jonny Williams on a longer deal and showing some intent in the summer.

This.

Weíre not skint anymore. Release the funds or we will spend another season wallowing in the cesspit of the professional league pyramid.
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« Reply #27 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 08:55:38 »

L-L

not having a go at you but want to take issue with not being skint.

we are not eyeball deep in external debt like last season that's true

but I don't think we have much money. Clem is not a billionaire. We get good gates but that's pretty much all the income.  Got to be self sustaining.

we've also got a 1m redevelopment investment commitment coming up as a clause to the ground purchase

whether we've made the most of the money we do have is a fair question mind
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Bob's Orange
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« Reply #28 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 09:04:15 »

L-L

not having a go at you but want to take issue with not being skint.

we are not eyeball deep in external debt like last season that's true

but I don't think we have much money. Clem is not a billionaire. We get good gates but that's pretty much all the income.  Got to be self sustaining.

we've also got a 1m redevelopment investment commitment coming up as a clause to the ground purchase

whether we've made the most of the money we do have is a fair question mind

I kind of agree with you Batch, I know it doesn't always follow that the clubs with the biggest crowds have the biggest transfer and wage kitty, but you would like to think that given our crowds and the income from the seemingly weekly sponsorship deals we seem to do (not entirely serious here) we'd be able to provide a budgie at least in the top 6? Does anyone know where in the league we sit budget wise?

We've now put a potentially top class manager in the dugout, I do think we need to make sure we put a top 6 (at the very least) team on the pitch. Our crowds remain high but if we end the season on a whimper, I can see them falling back to being back to 7k ish as a lot of fans are now bored of league 2 football, and it ain't cheap to watch in the current climate (financial, not weather)
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Pookemon

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« Reply #29 on: Monday, February 13, 2023, 09:23:25 »

I kind of agree with you Batch, I know it doesn't always follow that the clubs with the biggest crowds have the biggest transfer and wage kitty, but you would like to think that given our crowds and the income from the seemingly weekly sponsorship deals we seem to do (not entirely serious here) we'd be able to provide a budgie at least in the top 6? Does anyone know where in the league we sit budget wise?

We've now put a potentially top class manager in the dugout, I do think we need to make sure we put a top 6 (at the very least) team on the pitch. Our crowds remain high but if we end the season on a whimper, I can see them falling back to being back to 7k ish as a lot of fans are now bored of league 2 football, and it ain't cheap to watch in the current climate (financial, not weather)
I'm surprised attendances haven't dropped already TBH.   It's not that league 2 is inherently unwatchable, it's our style of football combined with mid table mediocrity that's boring.   I'm sure prices will go up alot next season and many STs possibly 1000+ will not renew and wait and see what the summer brings.   

This season has been a massive disappointment on the pitch, next season will be tougher as a result.
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