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Author Topic: War in Europe  (Read 31481 times)
Ardiles

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« on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 15:04:40 »

Needs its own thread, sadly.

Putin is acting like a man who has nothing to lose.  It's like he's been told by his doctor that he has 4 months to live and he's thought 'fuck it, let's go'.  We always knew he was a shifty bastard, but this seems different now.  A ground invasion of a neighbouring state, and threats to Finland & Sweden of military consequences should they join NATO.  How does this end?
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fuzzy

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« Reply #1 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 15:12:09 »

Hopefully with a well placed 7.62mm short round.
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Ardiles

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« Reply #2 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 15:22:27 »

In time, there will need to be some very uncomfortable discussions about Russian influence in UK politics.  Right now, it's got to be about minimising the danger to the people of Ukraine and going in as hard as possible with sanctions.

You have to accept, I think, that NATO forces entering Ukraine would present too great a risk of escalation - tragic as that is for the Ukrainian people.  So the sanctions have to be swift and decisive.  Cherry picking a small number of Russian top brass, as the UK has done, is pitiful.  You've got to ban Russia from SWIFT and other international payment systems, ban the entire population of Russia from travelling to the US and Europe - which sounds extreme, but I think that's the kind of measure that will be necessary.  You've got to isolate Russia as far as is possible...as that's the only way to weaken Putin at home.

And then - very tricky this - you'll need to give Putin a ladder to climb down.  Johnson was right when he said the invasion had to fail, and had to be seen to fail.  But somehow, you've got to do all that and give Putin a de-escalation route.
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Nemo
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« Reply #3 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 15:22:52 »

It's all very grim. The "unseen" player in all this I suspect is China, who are probably the one power who could get Putin to stop if they wanted to, but they seem happy enough to let him go on the provisos that he waited until after the winter olympics, not least because they quite fancy doing the same thing to Taiwan.

Regime change from within Russia is the best case scenario, but I can't help thinking that if Putin was going be given the boot it'd have happened before. If there is a God, it would be a good time for a bolt of lightning (or a heart attack, I'm not fussy).

Just feel desperately sad for the people of Ukraine, who are - as ever - the victims of geopolitical willy waving.
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RWB Robin

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« Reply #4 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 15:50:40 »

I agree that a)China is key, and unfortunately it seems that the Putin/Xi summit a couple of months ago has laid the ground for no intervention,  as China has its own agenda with Taiwan for which Xi will look for support from Putin. b) internal regime change is a possibility, and I suspect that there is already covert western activity, stirring up the population at various levels. The position and power of the police and security services will be key to there being any positive effect from this.

The other key players who have not been much mentioned are Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers. The Saudis have intervened at other moments of crisis to release more oil onto the market, which in theory would strengthen the economic situation in the west. However, Putin has recently been courting the Saudis, to what effect, I have no idea.
It is a deeply worrying situation, with few obvious ssolutions.
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BambooToTheFuture

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« Reply #5 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 15:54:43 »

I have no idea why it isn't being referenced much (not here but in the media), they are reporting this as if Putin has never invaded Ukraine before.
He's been testing the waters in that area for a good while - seeing how much he can push it.

Without any NATO defences set up in that area then Putin's Spetsnaz are more or less free to carry out their much planned pogroms, oh and that the UK is far too deeply involved with Russki benefactors to do anything of real note any way.

Biden can shake his fist for effect and Boris can bumble as usual but neither will actually do anything - unless Putin gets confident and does something more stupid like invade a nation with NATO protection.

But NATO isn't really the lynchpin in all this. Putin fears democracy or at least democratisation. Ukraine being more aligned with Europe (not necessarily the EU) or "the West" than with Russia as an outlying federation shows Putin as weak if he just rolls over.

There is probably a semi-decent solution that would mean little bloodshed...that would be to bring out an agreement similar to something like the Minsk-2 agreement. Only then would Putin recede as he'll feel as though he is retaining some form of control of Ukraine without having to carpet bomp the shite out of the place. It'd be a bitter pill to swallow for Ukraine as they would likely feel their nation still isn't wholly sovereign; sadly I doubt it ever will be - unfortunately the Ukrainian Gov are hardly angels themselves. It is of course the people that suffer.

If they (UK, Germany, France etc) do roll out a version of the Minsk-2, maybe this time the agreement is amended where it actually mentions that Russia have to agree and also nods towards some form of loose sovereignty to Ukraine...
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bathford

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« Reply #6 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 16:28:00 »

I’ve just been talking to a longtime friend of ours who lives south west of Gdańsk in Poland. Because they share a border with Ukraine and taking in refugees, there is a great deal of tension in the air across the country.

As she said, they are preparing for war.
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Batch
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« Reply #7 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 16:59:51 »

he's gone fucking nuts
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Samdy Gray
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« Reply #8 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 17:13:54 »

My hope is that this conflict ends in Ukraine. My fear is that it won't.

I'd like to think Putin isn't mad enough to try invading a NATO country, but who knows. A little excursion into Moldova or Georgia could be next.
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chalkies shorts

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« Reply #9 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 17:42:42 »

My hope is that this conflict ends in Ukraine. My fear is that it won't.

I'd like to think Putin isn't mad enough to try invading a NATO country, but who knows. A little excursion into Moldova or Georgia could be next.
He's not going to stop at Ukraine is he when he can just piss through the country while everyone talks tough. I don't think the us, EU , NATO or the un have covered themselves in glory.
He's on a roll now and will want the cccp back and who is going to stop him
I felt very sad seeing the Ukraine pm saying we stand alone. He does.
I'm not sure what the answer is but we had at least a month's notice of what Putin intended and he still did it.
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Jimmy QuitMoaning

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« Reply #10 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 17:44:21 »

He's not going to stop at Ukraine is he when he can just piss through the country while everyone talks tough. I don't think the us, EU , NATO or the un have covered themselves in glory.
He's on a roll now and will want the cccp back and who is going to stop him
I felt very sad seeing the Ukraine pm saying we stand alone. He does.
I'm not sure what the answer is but we had at least a month's notice of what Putin intended and he still did it.

Moving comment about the Ukraine pm saying we stand alone. Very sad.
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« Reply #11 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 18:26:29 »

he's right but I don't see what we can do to stop it.

escalation would be even worse.

cutting Russia and their people out totally.     economically, travel, sport, etc, etc. But there seems little appetite to go that far.

kicking them out the world cup and euro comps have even been done ffs
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Jimmy QuitMoaning

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« Reply #12 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 18:28:23 »

Its heartbreaking watching the news and seeing the scared Ukrainians fleeing their country.
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TheDukeOfBanbury

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« Reply #13 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 19:14:17 »

My hope is that this conflict ends in Ukraine. My fear is that it won't.

I'd like to think Putin isn't mad enough to try invading a NATO country, but who knows. A little excursion into Moldova or Georgia could be next.

The Moldovan’s are in the main pro Russian as are Georgians.
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Red Frog
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« Reply #14 on: Friday, February 25, 2022, 19:35:30 »

I wonder how wheretherealredsare is feeling about his own future. Safe to stay in Russia (Kazan wasn't it?), or time to think about moving on?
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