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RobertT

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« Reply #7785 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 18:41:32 »

I seem to remember the Sinopharm one coming through at sub 60% efficacy, which could have some influence on proceedings.

On the Variants, I think the India one is not causing as much concern right now because the characteristics are known, and the existing Vaccines have shown to be effective against other variants with similarities.  Certainly in a petri dish world they work in a similar fashion as they do on other variants, aside from the one most prevalent in South Africa which does have some impact.

Fortunately, when it comes to Variants, it appears a lot can be understood once the genome is identified.  Real world data will obviously lag, but I presume we will reach a point of being able to spot the bad ones.

Looks to me like the UK and USA are both headed towards handling it as Endemic from the Autumn.  I do wonder if things like masks may start to take more hold, like they do in Asia.  Wouldn't be a bad thing in preventing the spread of all sorts of airborne diseases.  Like not spitting does these days.
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pauld
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« Reply #7786 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 20:47:39 »

I seem to remember the Sinopharm one coming through at sub 60% efficacy, which could have some influence on proceedings.

On the Variants, I think the India one is not causing as much concern right now because the characteristics are known, and the existing Vaccines have shown to be effective against other variants with similarities.  Certainly in a petri dish world they work in a similar fashion as they do on other variants, aside from the one most prevalent in South Africa which does have some impact.
It does seem that SAGE are still worried about the rapid spread of the Indian variant, possibly not so much for the variant in and of itself but because the more prevalent such variants are, the more likelihood is that they further mutate into something that can evade the vaccine or that vaccines are less effective against.

https://inews.co.uk/news/scientists-fear-possible-delay-end-lockdown-uk-cases-india-variant-triple-one-week-998811

Looks to me like the UK and USA are both headed towards handling it as Endemic from the Autumn.  I do wonder if things like masks may start to take more hold, like they do in Asia.  Wouldn't be a bad thing in preventing the spread of all sorts of airborne diseases.  Like not spitting does these days.
Certainly hope so, on both counts.
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michael
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« Reply #7787 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 21:00:56 »

The "India" variants knocking around in Bolton at the moment are largely in the un-vaccinated age groups, suggesting that the vaccine(s) are effective against it.

Surely at some point there will be a variant that is both infectious AND less deadly. If I was a virus I'd want my subject to stay alive. Maybe that is why I am a human and not a virus.
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singingiiiffy

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« Reply #7788 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 21:11:31 »

The "India" variants knocking around in Bolton at the moment are largely in the un-vaccinated age groups, suggesting that the vaccine(s) are effective against it.

Surely at some point there will be a variant that is both infectious AND less deadly. If I was a virus I'd want my subject to stay alive. Maybe that is why I am a human and not a virus.

when the subject of variants first appeared in the news i heard that as viruses mutate it significantly weakens, seems like the complete on all of them in the news. every variant is more deadly and more transmissible.
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pauld
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« Reply #7789 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 21:15:09 »

The "India" variants knocking around in Bolton at the moment are largely in the un-vaccinated age groups, suggesting that the vaccine(s) are effective against it.
Yes, but as I understand it, the concern is that it's rapid spread (cases grown 3x in the last week) is what is causing concern; that it might become sufficiently prevalent among the unvaccinated to allow it to also mutate into something that is more vaccine resistant. SAGE are the ones sounding the alarm apparently. That seems like something worth listening to.
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pauld
Aaron Aardvark

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« Reply #7790 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 21:16:50 »

when the subject of variants first appeared in the news i heard that as viruses mutate it significantly weakens, seems like the complete on all of them in the news. every variant is more deadly and more transmissible.
Not at all. There's thousands of variants. The ones that get talked about are the Variants of Concern. They become Variants of Concern because they are more widespread/transmissible/harmful. You don't hear about the thousands that aren't, you hear about the handful that are.
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theakston2k

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« Reply #7791 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 21:46:43 »

Yes, but as I understand it, the concern is that it's rapid spread (cases grown 3x in the last week) is what is causing concern; that it might become sufficiently prevalent among the unvaccinated to allow it to also mutate into something that is more vaccine resistant. SAGE are the ones sounding the alarm apparently. That seems like something worth listening to.
I thought SAGE only yesterday massively downgraded their third wave estimates? I get caution is in their nature but they are now starting to run the risk of being the ‘boy that cried wolf’ as since the vaccine roll out they’ve kept predicting spikes that just aren’t materialising.
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Legends-Lounge

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« Reply #7792 on: Wednesday, May 12, 2021, 22:35:02 »

I thought SAGE only yesterday massively downgraded their third wave estimates? I get caution is in their nature but they are now starting to run the risk of being the ‘boy that cried wolf’ as since the vaccine roll out they’ve kept predicting spikes that just aren’t materialising.

That isn’t a bad thing in of its self in the context that as this is an unknown or was an unknown viral entity to relax the ‘lockdown’ MK2 when the new variants were starting to rear up notably the Kent strain. During the two lockdowns there have been many people ignoring the rules and or guidelines if you will. In my way of thinking if SAGE had down played their predictions from the start, in effect saying it’ll all be ok nothing much to worry about wouldn’t it have had a detrimental effect on the effectiveness of lockdown MK3 and the vaccine rollout making it easier for those who didn’t believe how serious this was in the first place. The risk of unknown variants as you say suddenly exploding from nowhere is still a risk, all be it a diminishing one but a risk none the less. If as I have tried to explain down played everything and it all went tits up they’d be crucified. They’ve gone the other way out of caution IMHO rightly so.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #7793 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 03:07:48 »

The upturn in cases in Bolton, for example, has been down to travel to/from India. You have to question why travel is/was allowed to a place saturated with the virus.
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Shrivvy Road

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« Reply #7794 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 08:10:13 »

Could someone if possible lead me to where i can find the infection rates for areas like bolton for example
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey

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« Reply #7795 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 08:20:21 »

Here

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19298502.boltons-latest-coronavirus-infection-rate/
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Abrahammer

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« Reply #7796 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 09:05:05 »

I’ve noticed a swell of ‘zerocovid’ nuts now who want to stay locked down and in restrictions until there are no more cases, never going to happen so they are going to have a fun life...

There is definitely some form of Stockholm Syndrome that is affecting a small minority, probably tied into the general anxiety that some people are feeling about the prospect of getting out and about and mixing with people again on a regular basis

Will be interesting to see the reaction if masks/social distancing is no longer required from June 21st
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horlock07

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« Reply #7797 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 09:23:18 »

Worrying information from Seychelles on vaccinations not preventing resurgence of infection, especially in light of the govt's apparent determination to ignore scientists' warnings about dangers of sticking to the timetable for opening up in the face of the prevalence of the Indian variant in the UK. The govt may be right to ignore those warnings, I'm not qualified to say, but the experience of last summer, September and December doesn't inspire confidence. Hope they're right this time.

https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1392522435124203522

TBC, I want us to be able to open up properly as soon as we can. I don't want to see a repeat of the "Open up, lots of illness/deaths, impose restrictions again for even longer" cycle that's characterised this so far.



Also worth keeping an eye on Chile, who were up with us on vaccinations yet has now experienced a surge in infections higher that at its pre-vaccination peak. 

Seems to be due to easing lock down too quickly (apparently 70-90% of the population have to be fully vaxxed to have a shot at herd immunity) plus using a vax which is less effective after one dose, albeit on the upside fewer seem to be dying.
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The Grim Reaper

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« Reply #7798 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 09:28:33 »

There is definitely some form of Stockholm Syndrome that is affecting a small minority, probably tied into the general anxiety that some people are feeling about the prospect of getting out and about and mixing with people again on a regular basis

Will be interesting to see the reaction if masks/social distancing is no longer required from June 21st

Agreed, personally I think from June 21st masks and social distancing will no longer be necessary thank god, however I’m sure there will be a small percentage of people who will still want to wear masks in supermarkets and insist everyone stays 2 meters from them. Going to be interesting for sure.
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4D
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« Reply #7799 on: Thursday, May 13, 2021, 09:29:13 »

Where are we now on numbers vaxxed?
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