STFC Transfer Rumours

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

Said he'd already signed for Swindon earlier then got edited back.

[DV]

…if he does sign…anyone able to find any links to Gambia football shirts?

[OOH! SHAUN TAYLOR]

Said he'd already signed for Swindon earlier then got edited back.

Media dept seem to be very keen on no more than one signing being announced per day...

[bathford]

….might be clutching at straws a bit here with Payne but if other clubs wanted him, don’t you think they’d have made a bit more effort to get him in already. I know there is still time but you want to get your new players in sooner rather than later: giving them a chance to get to know the club, the manager, the back room staff, the players, the formation, the style of play so on and so forth - even if he hadn’t signed, I’d have thought he’d have turned up in a training kit somewhere if clubs were showing a real interest. If he is after a certain amount of money that clubs aren’t offering, training there for a few days to show them what you can do could only be beneficial right?

Obviously all of the above he mostly already knows if he re-signs with us.

The offer we’ve made him is top L1 salary. They don’t want him as they say he isn’t going to bring anything to the table. Bottom half L1 clubs want him, but can’t afford him.

Like in this post COVID world are clubs going to take a punt on 5k a week Jack Payne before even getting him into the club to have a look…

Could be bollocks, could be straw clutching but the more of preseason he’s unemployed for the less favour it’s doing him I think - certainly in regards to finding a new club

[JoeMezz]

Seems reasonable to think that. Surely better than loans.

Gotta say, I like the look of the recruitment do far. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen.

My slight worry is that a couple of them could be in preparation for some departures.

Agreed. Clear plan in recruitment and good to see us actually spend a bit of money for a change. Definitely need reinforcements up front - one big striker who can hold it up for sure. I’d also like a defensive midfielder (Grant-like) who is needed in L2 on cut up winter pitches and allows us to play 4-2-3-1. Not sure we’ll get one though given last year letting Grant go and not replacing him like for like.

[Bob's Orange]

Rumour from Footyinsider

🚨 𝗘𝗫𝗖𝗟𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘! 🚨

- Swindon Town are lining up a deal to sign ex-Swansea defender Cameron Evans on a free transfer. 📝

-  The 21-yr-old has been training with the Robins after his Swans contract expired. 💪

This is kind of on topic but there is a video on youtube called 'How Brentford's Moneyball Approach Works' (apologies I can't input as at work) which was quite interesting. The 2 main things I took away was that they tend to play 3 centre backs, 2 are usually young and 1 is experienced. If you look at our squad we have Baudry as that experienced player and possibly Harries could also be argued as experienced given his games played at this level (bit of a stretch, granted) meaning that you probably want 4 young Centre Backs. At the moment we have Brennan and Clayton so I can understand why we would also be looking at Cameron Evans.

The actual moneyball bit was also interesting. So you take a simple comparison of 2 25 year old strikers in the conference, both have played 20 games. Jones has scored 12 goals and Smith has scored 4. You would try and buy Jones wouldn't you? Well, not in this scenario as if you look at XG (I don't really get XG so humour me here!) as well as other factors like strength of opponent, goalkeeping performances etc. Smith's is higher than Jones so you actually take that punt on Smith because long term he is going to get goals and will cost less. Therefore when we sign a striker or 2, don't be surprised if his goal record is poor, the club will have looked at all the factors and worked out whether they are likely to get goals at Swindon based on all the other underlying factors they use.

[OOH! SHAUN TAYLOR]

Interesting stuff Bob, can't wait to see how it pans out in practice...

[Bob's Orange]

Interesting stuff Bob, can't wait to see how it pans out in practice...

It's obviously not fool proof but Brentford and Midgetland in Denmark have made it work. Whether we can is obviously for discussion that we can have in 5,10 years etc but I think it's exciting and interesting that we at least seem to have a long term plan.

[Ginginho]

This is kind of on topic but there is a video on youtube called 'How Brentford's Moneyball Approach Works' (apologies I can't input as at work) which was quite interesting. The 2 main things I took away was that they tend to play 3 centre backs, 2 are usually young and 1 is experienced. If you look at our squad we have Baudry as that experienced player and possibly Harries could also be argued as experienced given his games played at this level (bit of a stretch, granted) meaning that you probably want 4 young Centre Backs. At the moment we have Brennan and Clayton so I can understand why we would also be looking at Cameron Evans.

The actual moneyball bit was also interesting. So you take a simple comparison of 2 25 year old strikers in the conference, both have played 20 games. Jones has scored 12 goals and Smith has scored 4. You would try and buy Jones wouldn't you? Well, not in this scenario as if you look at XG (I don't really get XG so humour me here!) as well as other factors like strength of opponent, goalkeeping performances etc. Smith's is higher than Jones so you actually take that punt on Smith because long term he is going to get goals and will cost less. Therefore when we sign a striker or 2, don't be surprised if his goal record is poor, the club will have looked at all the factors and worked out whether they are likely to get goals at Swindon based on all the other underlying factors they use.

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

Agreed. Clear plan in recruitment and good to see us actually spend a bit of money for a change. Definitely need reinforcements up front - one big striker who can hold it up for sure. I’d also like a defensive midfielder (Grant-like) who is needed in L2 on cut up winter pitches and allows us to play 4-2-3-1. Not sure we’ll get one though given last year letting Grant go and not replacing him like for like.

I'd also probably prefer this to 3-5-2. Be including McKirdy in the 3 behind the striker rather than an out and out striker of course, who we would need to still sign.

If we keep signing defenders, then maybe Clayton could be used more of a DCM and have him and Gladwin sit behind the three.

[Ƭ̵̬̊: The Artist Formerly Known as CWIG]

The actual moneyball bit was also interesting. So you take a simple comparison of 2 25 year old strikers in the conference, both have played 20 games. Jones has scored 12 goals and Smith has scored 4. You would try and buy Jones wouldn't you? Well, not in this scenario as if you look at XG (I don't really get XG so humour me here!) as well as other factors like strength of opponent, goalkeeping performances etc. Smith's is higher than Jones so you actually take that punt on Smith because long term he is going to get goals and will cost less. Therefore when we sign a striker or 2, don't be surprised if his goal record is poor, the club will have looked at all the factors and worked out whether they are likely to get goals at Swindon based on all the other underlying factors they use.

Sounds like its just a very in depth way of applying more context to stats. Even fans can see the context sometimes themselves. Jones might be in a total hapless team while Smith has a winger who should be playing leagues higher setting him up with 4 golden chances every game. Fans can see that, but this just goes much deeper than what can be seen on surface level.

[horlock07]

It's obviously not fool proof but Brentford and Midgetland in Denmark have made it work. Whether we can is obviously for discussion that we can have in 5,10 years etc but I think it's exciting and interesting that we at least seem to have a long term plan.

I assume you mean FC Midtjylland, or perhaps you are describing some sort of niche amusement park?  

Edit - I didn't realise that the guy who seemed to instigate Moneyball there and then took it to Brentford is now DoF at Southampton.

[Swindon Please Win]

https://twitter.com/Will_Unwin/status/1547500503529099264?cxt=HHwWgMC4qcng6fkqAAAA

Another journalist saying Khan is about to sign.

[Bob's Orange]

Sounds like its just a very in depth way of applying more context to stats. Even fans can see the context sometimes themselves. Jones might be in a total hapless team while Smith has a winger who should be playing leagues higher setting him up with 4 golden chances every game. Fans can see that, but this just goes much deeper than what can be seen on surface level.

Ginginho has very kindly posted the video above. (thanks G!) The thing is whilst some fans can see context, others don't look much deeper than what is on surface level. Signing strikers for example, the first thing people do is go onto Wiki (if they even have a page) and look at his games and goals and judge only this statistic. Hopefully what fans might have learned this summer is that a significant amount of patience is sometimes required.

[Bob's Orange]

I assume you mean FC Midtjylland, or perhaps you are describing some sort of niche amusement park? 

Edit - I didn't realise that the guy who seemed to instigate Moneyball there and then took it to Brentford is now DoF at Southampton.

Sorry yes, I meant the Danish football club