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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #1 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 11:11:54 » |
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I like Cooper's analysis here, but would take exception to this bit... They’re fighting for their lives, we’re still trying to win enough games to keep our season interesting towards the end. If Shrews win and they're currently in the bottom 4, it will probably leave us more points off Rotherham in 6th, than Shrewsbury, I would suggest this displays an element of complacency....we need to be fighting for our lives also, to avoid our season becoming interesting for the wrong reasons. |
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Peter Venkman
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« Reply #2 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 12:20:48 » |
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Over the last 9 years in League 1 the 4th bottom club has never got more than 51 points with the lowest total being 43 by Wycombe 2 seasons ago but the averag being 48 points, so the target would appear to be about 49 points.
We are currently on 37 points so I personally think that we need only another 4 wins so I would like to think we are already safe from any proper relegation struggle, especially as our home form is currently wdwwwwlwlwww which is almost promotion standard, its the away form thats shit.
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Benzel
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« Reply #3 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 12:27:53 » |
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Turn half our away defeats into draws and we'd be looking pretty rosy.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #4 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 12:41:23 » |
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Over the last 9 years in League 1 the 4th bottom club has never got more than 51 points with the lowest total being 43 by Wycombe 2 seasons ago but the averag being 48 points, so the target would appear to be about 49 points.
We are currently on 37 points so I personally think that we need only another 4 wins so I would like to think we are already safe from any proper relegation struggle, especially as our home form is currently wdwwwwlwlwww which is almost promotion standard, its the away form thats shit.
Certainly 4 wins and a couple of draws will guarantee Div 3 next season...and is quite doable, but there's often an example in Div 3 with 4 to go down for a side to have a second half of season slip, and go from seeming mid table safety to Div 4. We know from past experience, when a team hits the skids it can be very difficult to pull out...we're in that slide now with away form. Which is why as Cooper quite rightly points out it places pressure on the home form...reading between the lines, he blames things on Ranger, hence the acquisition of Smith in attempt to stop the rot. Shrewsbury have hit the skids, and have replaced the manager in an effort to halt their slide.... |
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Paolo69
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« Reply #5 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 13:12:05 » |
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To go down from this position would be one hell of a slide. We've list the lost two and played shit. We've been losing away most of the season though. Unless our home form goes the same way then I ain't worried.
No we haven't got enough points to stay up yet but it's not even the end of Jan so that's hardly a shock either.
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« Last Edit: Friday, January 24, 2014, 13:16:49 by Paolo69 »
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #6 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 14:18:45 » |
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To go down from this position would be one hell of a slide. We've list the lost two and played shit. We've been losing away most of the season though. Unless our home form goes the same way then I ain't worried.
No we haven't got enough points to stay up yet but it's not even the end of Jan so that's hardly a shock either.
Agreed it would be...but a 10/11 style descent into shitness, which saw us glean 12 points from the last 20 games and 3 of those when we were already down, might do it. That most bizarre of seasons, is generally put down to lack of effort by decent players, because of rifts in the squad. I worry when reports from the last 2 games similarly talk about lack of effort. |
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Honkytonk
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« Reply #7 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 14:45:17 » |
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Alright, let's do some number crunching. As it stands, we're on 37pts. in 9th place. First placed Leyton Orient are on 57pts. and last placed Stevenage are 15pts. behind on 22pts - so technically, yes, we are closer to relegation than top of the table.
We've got 20 games left. 11 of those 20 are home games, so let's say we keep up our relatively good form at home and get 2pts. a game (one win and a draw every 2 games, which seems doable). The other 9 are away, so let's be a bit pessimistic and say we only get 1pt every three matches, we'll have 37+22+3=62pts. In last year's table would have had us in 14th above PNE on 59pts. and below Crewe on 64pts. Easily midtable.
To be knocking on the playoffs at the end of the season we're looking at doubling our current points tally in our last 20 games. We'd need to be getting nearly 2pts a game for that to happen, so essentially we'd have to stay unbeaten for the rest of the season. That ain't gonna happen, least not as far as I can see.
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Paolo69
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« Reply #8 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 14:48:05 » |
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Agreed it would be...but a 10/11 style descent into shitness, which saw us glean 12 points from the last 20 games and 3 of those when we were already down, might do it. That most bizarre of seasons, is generally put down to lack of effort by decent players, because of rifts in the squad. I worry when reports from the last 2 games similarly talk about lack of effort.
Fair enough Reg. I'd have to see a repeat of the last 2 games in our next 3 home games before I became even as worried as you though. Personally I think we'll win tomorrow and win well. |
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #9 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 14:54:14 » |
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Fair enough Reg. I'd have to see a repeat of the last 2 games in our next 3 home games before I became even as worried as you though. Personally I think we'll win tomorrow and win well.
Win tomorrow and things will look good again... |
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Paolo69
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« Reply #10 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 15:12:50 » |
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Win tomorrow and things will look good again...
Yep. You're only as good as your last game and all that! |
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leftside
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« Reply #11 on: Friday, January 24, 2014, 20:40:45 » |
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I like Cooper's analysis here, but would take exception to this bit...
If Shrews win and they're currently in the bottom 4, it will probably leave us more points off Rotherham in 6th, than Shrewsbury, I would suggest this displays an element of complacency....we need to be fighting for our lives also, to avoid our season becoming interesting for the wrong reasons.
I agree with Reg. Although the home results have so far been fantastic, we do have some very tough matches coming up against teams currently above us, so I think 'recent form' will play a huge part against the likes of Wolves, PNE, Rotherham, Brentford, Franchise. If things are going a bit tits up around the time we play them, and our away form remains cobblers, then the latter part of the season could be 'fighting for our lives' to avoid relegation. Still, I'm a pessimistic bugger so a win tomorrow might convince me that we'll avoid the worry of a relegation dog fight. |
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