Swindon Town FC v Crewe Alexandra F.C Official Matchday Thread

[fatbasher]

All things being equal the only team I fancy us against are Yeovil.  Even if we win our PO semi's I still think a win at Wembley will be a bridge to far.

[sonicyouth]

All depends if last night was the catalyst we needed to hit a patch of form to coincide with the play-offs. Bit early to get too excited though...

[welshred]

All things being equal the only team I fancy us against are Yeovil.  Even if we win our PO semi's I still think a win at Wembley will be a bridge to far.

In a one-off match, anything could happen.

In fact, it might be nice to go to Wembley without any expectation.

[Reg Smeeton]

All depends if last night was the catalyst we needed to hit a patch of form to coincide with the play-offs. Bit early to get too excited though...

Exactly....I did say Crewe always give you a bit of a chance, because they like to play. Stevenage, under Westley, are more or less the opposite.

One of the more bizarre stats from this season, is that we've scored the most home goals, and conceded the least home goals, but have been overall poor at home 

[Bob's Orange]

Do Stevenage play with 2 big lumps at CB?

[sonicyouth]

We did alright against them earlier in the season so I'll cling to that shred of hope

[Reg Smeeton]

We did alright against them earlier in the season so I'll cling to that shred of hope

Different manager...that fella tried to get them playing a bit of football, rather than the anti-football favoured by Westley. 2 draws would be enough...that should be achievable.

[Flashheart]

Different manager...that fella tried to get them playing a bit of football, rather than the anti-football favoured by Westley. 2 draws would be enough...that should be achievable.

I've got promotion in mind, in which case 2 draws won't do it for me. I want at least one more good performance and win to suggest that last night wasn't a one off and that we really are back on form.

[BruceChatwin]

I've got promotion in mind, in which case 2 draws won't do it for me. I want at least one more good performance and win to suggest that last night wasn't a one off and that we really are back on form.

Agree. If we are going to stand any chance in the playoffs I think we really need to be looking at two wins to gather a bit of confidence and momentum. If we're good enough for promotion we're good enough to beat Stevenage and Scunthorpe. Limping over the line is seldom a recipe for success.

[Abrahammer]

As Roberts said last night on the radio, momentum going into the playoffs is overated based on his previous 2 seasons in them.

Last season Huddersfield were shit towards end of season and stumbled into the playoffs yet won the thing.  The season before that they won 6 out their last 7 games and lost in the Final.

Just get into the damn thing and take your shot at the lottery of it.

[Bob's Orange]

I think form goes out of the window in the play-offs. Pure lottery as others have mentioned.

[BruceChatwin]

I think form goes out of the window in the play-offs. Pure lottery as others have mentioned.

I don't think it's a pure lottery. 40% of the winners across the 3 divisions come from the highest-ranked of the 4 teams even though they only have 1/4 of the representation. I can't find the statistic for League 1, but 13 of the last 15 winners in the Championship have come from the top 2 teams based on form/ momentum. I'm sure that's probably lower for our division, though expect there's still some sort of statistical tendency towards the form teams.

I do think we'd struggle at the moment against any of Bournemouth/ Doncaster/ Sheffield United/ Brentford based on recent performances against them. 3 months ago based on performances against them then I'd equally have expected us to beat them.

If our luck turns like it did yesterday then you never know. But getting over the line with 2 draws, leaving us with form that would read only 3 wins in our previous 14 games, would make winning three in a row against much better teams who have recently beaten us a near miraculous turnaround in fortunes.

[RobertT]

worked out ok in 93

[welshred]

But getting over the line with 2 draws, leaving us with form that would read only 3 wins in our previous 14 games, would make winning three in a row against much better teams who have recently beaten us a near miraculous turnaround in fortunes.

Winning all 3 games is not required, and although you may say some of these teams appear to have the edge, to say they're 'much better' is not really accurate now is it?

[Kinky Tom]

avoid bournemouth at all costs, i don't think i could take the inevitable ritchie winner as the final nail in coffin for the season