Adver News: THE SAM MORSHEAD COLUMN: Irrational panic over Patey's comments

[Ardiles]

In regards to the stadium redevelopment, except for the Stratton Bank and a couple of other issues, I like most of the things about it as it stands: where it's positioned, the view you get of the game, the atmosphere when we actually wake up (Tranmere game/ Aston Villa had moments of genuine electricity) and I do worry about losing all of those things if we move to a Colchester or Franchise style empty bowl stuck out in an industrial estate.

Thankfully, the out of town option has been off the agenda for a number of years now.  One point on which there seems to be near unanimity is that the County Ground is in a great location, at the heart of the community it represents...hence all the talk of redevelopment, as opposed to relocation.  The problem is not to do with the location, but the time the project is taking to get off the ground.

If, however, the clubs financial stability and survival are going to be dependent on new revenue streams, then we should be trying to sort this out NOW while we're still on an upward curve.

Absolutely.  Conversely, I remember arguing a few years ago on here that the 2010/11 relegation season was precisely the wrong time to be pushing forward with plans because heads were down and ambitions at that time were blunted.  This season is exactly the time we should be pushing forward on this.  I am concerned that, in years to come, we may look back on this period as the period during which we missed the boat - and wonder why we did not capitalise on the impetus of the Di Canio era.  I fear a missed opportunity.

Or just maybe there is something happening that the fans cannot be told about just yet.

[fatbasher]

Exactly this. The idea isn't to increase crowds (although you'd hope that would come with nicer facilities and better football) it's to try and sustain self stability financially as a club. This is why the likes of Reading have prospered. It's not just been about bigger crowds leading to a bigger budget but extra revenue streams making the club a much better financial prospect.

Looking at all the posts WRT re development.

A) We ALL want either a new stadium or a re developed one, thats as read.
B) Would like it to be now please....long over due.
C) We don't own the ground.
D) Where is the new one going to be built if we decide to tell the council fo politely fuck off.

However, it is all aspirational and in the cold light of day you have to take a step back and rip your STFC heart out and replace it with that of someone at one end of the scale Kassamesque and at the other end Andrew Black. Be carefull what you wish.

It all comes back to ££££££'s. You don't want a Kassam to build you what want and hold a gun to your head and St. Andrew ain't gonna throw anymore of his bunce at something that is likely to cost how much? With how much return. Go on have a stab, your guess will as wild as mine and therein my fellow STFC warriors (or is that worriers?) is the problem. Lets for arguments sake cost a new ground @ £100m, interest on that money either borrowed or loaned by benefactors is likely to be I dunno somewhere between £5-£15m a year before you start to pay back the capitol, then try to run the club on 10k attendances? Ok you might have a hotel, casino but hey thats a big amount of money to make just to service the interest.

Or a redevelopment @ £20m? interest at £1-£3m. My figures may be woefully awry but that is my point about any of us guessing how much it may or may not cost. Where is the money going to come from in these cash strapped times. Black may be worth squillions but most of it is probably tied up in investments which he would have to either sell at the bottom of the market I would suggest or mortgage to a bank at an interest rate at the higher end of my estimates. And if not Black then other "investors" would be in the same boat unless they had plenty of liquid cash, in which case they would probably say thanks but no thanks, I know I would as a non STFC fan.

In a nut shell it's a chicken and egg situation who's foundation is or would be built on a gamble ie. promotion, growth of turnover etc, etc. 

I would like to think that the building blocks are being slowly put in place to secure our long term financial future and with that the return of monies "loaned" to the club by the likes of Fitton el al if they have not been persuaded to write off what they loaned in the first place. If they have agreed to write off their "loans" then things will move quicker, alas not as quickly as we would all like. Championship football first, stability in that division second re developement third.

Lastly, cast your minds back to our fleetng love fest with the Premier league. That royally fucked us up for years after and the DRS was not built till after we were relegated. So you see we ought to put the development to the back of our minds and concentrate our efforts and put our hearts and wallets behind the team, everything else will follow, all in due course. They will decide when and how, not us.
   

[RobertT]

In terms of attendances, we were just under 11,000 for the 92/93 season which was bolstered by the run in and some canny offers around people needing ticket stubs from several games to get play off tickets for Wembley - it looked likely so the club went early and maybe a little on the presumptious side and it paid off.

The Prem season saw 14,500 ish I think, with a few of the opening games just getting over 10,000, Oldham springs to mind.  Part of that was due to the size of the away followings, but also because we had some lower key home fixtures.  They were sell outs once we played the top teams or at least 15k upwards.

I think we would see an increase in the Championship this time around because football has changed.  The last time around at that level we were only just seeing general attendances going back up across the country.  However, without something significant changing, like a new ground/developed ground, I think we'll still struggle to press too far beyond the 10k mark on average, maybe 11k.

Redevelopment is essential if we want something different to last time, and to have to worry less every time an owner finfs the pockets have holes in them.  It also brings with it, in most cases, and initial boost in attendances due to the novelty factor.  Even the Intel when built used to be sold out in favour of the rest of the ground.  The trick is then to capture that mood and grow the club as well to sustain the new interest.

Ardiles, I think the reason it is now more difficult is the money issue.  Those who are managing it have either used public money and rent, or had endless pockets of private finance.  Getting thr bank onboard right now is impossible, more so since they have realised that for all the cash in football, they still don't see any of it, no matter the level - see RBS with Liverpool wasn't it?

[Reg Smeeton]

Why do we always have mong meltdowns at such small things like we had this week?

Well you give cub reporters like Morshead a platform and it's what happens....

[chalkies_shorts]

Don't forget on the run from the 4th to the Prem we were fiddling gates all over the place - sometimes  by as much as 4-5k for the really big games like pikeys at home in play offs, Bournemouth and Leeds in the cup.

[sonicyouth]

The discussions regarding attendance piqued my interest and as a result I've sat down and worked out our average attendances for the past 20 years:

[url width=900 height=371]http://i.imgur.com/CZodn.png[/url]

[kerry red]

Yes, money is tight these days, but surely now is the time to take advantage of hugely lower construction costs.

I think most fans would like to see a redeveloped CG than a new stadium elsewhere.

As a matter of interest where were Reading in the league when their new stadium was built? Were they already on the up on the pitch?

No doubt we'll be able to ask some of the plastics ourselves next season

[Ardiles]

Thanks Sonic.  That's the kind of thing I was looking for earlier.  Upward clear to see over the last decade or so.  And that's before both the redevelopment boost other clubs have experienced and the additional crowds that come following promotion to the top two divisions.

If you want a more striking example, showing what can happen following promotions and a redevelopment/relocation, look no further than Swansea City.  (Graph is back to front, for some reason.  Most recent seasons on the left.)  While we have more or less doubled our attendances over the last decade, they have trebled theirs.

[url width=500 height=292]http://scfcheritage.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/graph.jpg?w=500&h=291[/url]

[Benzel]

With new facilities and the ever growing popularity of the Championship, I think we'd get a decent rise in attendances. Let's face it, there is fuck all to do in Swindon and if The County Ground got a make over to go along with the sexy football being seen these days, more people WILL come.

In my honest, yet factless opinion.

[RedRag]

I've read about extra revenue streams from ground re-development for ages and it always seems to assume STFC creams the money.

If this were the case I would be starting to fear the Pox revenue from the Taff egg chasers.

STFC Ltd

    doesn't own its own ground,
    doesn't itself take risks or invest in a redevelopment (STFC Holdings or consortium, the borough council)

How could it profit from hotels, colleges, casinos, dogtracks, conferencing or whatever - all businesses or organisations that need to invest themselves

Ir probably could run a bit of conferencing but really no big "streams" if no land ownership or investment risk.

This is not to say there are no advantages from redevelopment but without a benefactor or benefactors (Borough Council and Black's and Arbib's successors that Patey is sure to bring in?) STFC Ltd gets no additional revenue streams of significance from the redevelopment itself.

[red sheldon]

I've read about extra revenue streams from ground re-development for ages and it always seems to assume STFC creams the money.

If this were the case I would be starting to fear the Pox revenue from the Taff egg chasers.

STFC Ltd

    doesn't own its own ground,
    doesn't itself take risks or invest in a redevelopment (STFC Holdings or consortium, the borough council)

How could it profit from hotels, colleges, casinos, dogtracks, conferencing or whatever - all businesses or organisations that need to invest themselves

Ir probably could run a bit of conferencing but really no big "streams" if no land ownership or investment risk.

This is not to say there are no advantages from redevelopment but without a benefactor or benefactors (Borough Council and Black's and Arbib's successors that Patey is sure to bring in?) STFC Ltd gets no additional revenue streams of significance from the redevelopment itself.

the extra revenue can come from a whole host of different areas, the club have always talked about renting out part of the area to somebody like a doctors surgery or something, then if you have executive boxes, you get increased prices for corporate tickets and you can use the facilities for conferences / weddings etc as well.  I dis post a link to an interesting article about costs and revenues involved in building new stands, but if the club do their research it should not cost it if they can rent some of the dead space underneath the stand to a company or organisation.  I can't remember where it is now though

[RobertT]

I remember that, it was from the proposed developer who also developed Preston wasn't it?

[Peter Venkman]

I remember that, it was from the proposed developer who also developed Preston wasn't it?

It was and apparently it uses one of the other northern new grounds as a blueprint for stand design, either Bolton or 'Udderfields new grounds IIRC.

[horlock07]

One thing that made my ears prick up yesterday is that Brighton are averaging crowds of around 25k in the championship - what are they doing to achieve this? A quick look at Wiki suggests their population is roughly 155k, Swindons is over 200k so it is possible?

[Dostoyevsky]

One thing that made my ears prick up yesterday is that Brighton are averaging crowds of around 25k in the championship - what are they doing to achieve this? A quick look at Wiki suggests their population is roughly 155k, Swindons is over 200k so it is possible?

The catchment area of Brighton is huge. 200k in Swindon seems rather ambitious to me. You have got Worthing, Shoreham, Hove, Littlehampton, Seaford, Newhaven.

Worthing alone has 104,000. We are much smaller. Infact, Bournemouth/Poole is much bigger than Swindon. We need some perspective.