Reality Check !

[BigStan]

It's quite sad to see the number of "Well I never rated them anyway." and "We'll have no problem replacing them in the summer" postings increasing.

Whilst it's predictable that some fans need to use this comfort blanket reaction to the club's current plight they are, nevertheless, ignoring the reality of the situation.

Two years ago the board responded to a worsening financial position at the club by hiking up matchday ticket prices to £23. Their intention was to bridge the shortfall in income and they gambled that such an increase wouldn't alienate the paying customers too much.

Well, they gambled and lost. Average gates down by 2000 and falling.

Two years on they've concluded that using that method to increase income isn't even worth considering. So what they've done this time around is to attack the debit side of the balance sheet.

They've followed the classic finance directors rule of thumb when times get hard. Reduce the wage bill.

Slashing £200k off Andy King's playing budget is merely the first step along the "downsizing" road.

Notwithstanding those three players that King didn't want to keep the others have all been offered contracts that most right minded people would consider to be derisory.

In most cases we're talking about significant drops in money and short contract terms.

The board has once again gambled. This time the gamble is that the players will be so desperate that they'll accept virtually anything. And in any case, if they don't like what's offered - tough.

The problem is that King actually wants to keep all of the players who've been offered contracts but he knows how poor those offers are.

It's not as if he's following the constructive dismissal approach to ship them out by making silly offers.

The board have shot his legs away from underneath him.

No surprise then that all (or nearly all) of the players have expressed their disapointment at what's on the table.

No surprise that all (or nearly all) of the players will have better offers from other clubs to consider.

No surprise that King is going to lose all (or nearly all) of the out of contract players.

Anybody that really believes that the seven or eight proven League One players in question are going to be replaced with equal or better players in the summer is living in cloud cuckoo land.

Everybody in football knows that Swindon Town are financially volatile (to say the least). Those players looking for a new club will need to be desperate in the extreme to consider joining a club where the wages are right down at the bottom end of the scale and where there's a proven track record of late / partial payment of wages.

If the players leaving Swindon Town can get better and longer deals elsewhere why on earth would players as good or better than them come to the County Ground to replace them ?

Andy King WILL start next season with a full squad. But it will be populated with NO EXPERIENCE youngsters and not so good old hands. Whoever they are they won't be there because they've "always dreamed of playing for Swindon Town."

[Iffy's Onion Bhaji]

well thats exactly the situation huddersfield were in a few years back. they fielded their youngsters and now look where they are!

[yeo]

Couldnt agree more Stan.Things are looking bleak but its hard for Swindon fans to realise just quite how bad it is as we have had one crisis after another.

At best next year we will struggle at worst we will go bust.

[sonicyouth]

where are the razorblades?  

[STFCBird]

christ share em with me sy, that one has just pushed me over the edge  

[janaage]

We going up as fucking champions - theme tune to STFC 2005/06.  

Come on you reds!

[Batch]

I think that is a realistic view.

I will admit to saying I don't think Evans leaving would be a disaster. It will be hard to replace him, but if we can't afford him then  
I am sure we will find somebody to do the job reasonably compitantly on less £££.

It raises an iteresting question though, what are peoples expectation for next season in terms of league position?  Personally I see us struggling to avoid a relagation scrap by finishing mid table, assuming the wage budget is as low as we expect.

[walrus]

I disagree.  If that were the situation we would not be releasing the likes of Steve Robinson and potentially Andy Nicholas as they would be invaluable for the next campaign and are not on top-drawer salaries.

In addition, people are saying that King will see not a penny of the Sam Parkin money.  If that is the case, what were the board proposing to do about the CVA payment if Parkin was not valued so highly by bidding clubs, or if he chose to wait until his contract expired and thus allowed to leave scott free on a bosman.

At the beginning of 03/04 season, we signed a whole load of new players and surpassed everyone's expectations - I for one was amazed to see the likes of Viveash and Mooney come in after we had signed so many good players such as Grant Smith, Rhys Evans, Andy Nicholas etc. who I considered to be on fairly decent wages as they had come from clubs higher in the football pyramid.  It is easy to forget that Swindon Town finished a respectable 10th in 02/03, better than we seem to be on target to finish this year, with Sabin and Reeves as regular fixtures in the matchday squad, and a goalkeeper who was nothing short of dodgy.

I'm sorry if I'm a little deaf to pleas that we are financially crocked and will be lucky to survive in this division next year, but I don't see that as excusable.  We are in a similar situation to many other clubs in this league, and to rely on excuses is to admit failure.

In reality, I think we'll lose from what could be considered the first team squad:
Evans
Book
Nicholas
Duke
Robinson
Igoe
Hewlett
Parkin

With a few decent signings, notably a goalkeeper, a goalscorer and a true right winger, I would certainly expect to be mixing it in the top half of the table.

[sonicyouth]

At the beginning of 03/04 season, we signed a whole load of new players and surpassed everyone's expectations - I for one was amazed to see the likes of Viveash and Mooney come in after we had signed so many good players such as Grant Smith, Rhys Evans, Andy Nicholas etc. who I considered to be on fairly decent wages as they had come from clubs higher in the football pyramid.

Are you serious? Mooney came here with a poor track record in recent years, struggling to impress at any club, Viveash was average on loan at Oxford the previous season and nobody knew anything about Smith, Evans and Nicholas.

[walrus]

At the beginning of 03/04 season, we signed a whole load of new players and surpassed everyone's expectations - I for one was amazed to see the likes of Viveash and Mooney come in after we had signed so many good players such as Grant Smith, Rhys Evans, Andy Nicholas etc. who I considered to be on fairly decent wages as they had come from clubs higher in the football pyramid.

Are you serious? Mooney came here with a poor track record in recent years, struggling to impress at any club, Viveash was average on loan at Oxford the previous season and nobody knew anything about Smith, Evans and Nicholas.

I meant in terms of numbers rather than the calibre of player coming in.  Being seasoned pros I accepted their wages would be pretty decent - i.e.:  I was surprised our transfer kitty stretched that far!

[OOH! SHAUN TAYLOR]

I will not miss Hewlett, Igoe, Heywood or Evans if they go.

That is a fact.

You are saying Big Stan (I think) that we will not be able to replace these players given the perilous (and it is FUCKING perilous I know only too well) position of the club.  I beg to differ though.  I think we will replace them with equally good, if not better players. Or if not better players, then players with perhaps a bit more fight about them.

Shoot me down if you like, that's just what I think.  I am looking from the outside, you would seem to have quite a bit more 'inside' knowledge than I do, so fair play to you.

[BigStan]

At the beginning of 03/04 season, we signed a whole load of new players and surpassed everyone's expectations - I for one was amazed to see the likes of Viveash and Mooney come in after we had signed so many good players such as Grant Smith, Rhys Evans, Andy Nicholas etc. who I considered to be on fairly decent wages as they had come from clubs higher in the football pyramid.

Are you serious? Mooney came here with a poor track record in recent years, struggling to impress at any club, Viveash was average on loan at Oxford the previous season and nobody knew anything about Smith, Evans and Nicholas.

I meant in terms of numbers rather than the calibre of player coming in.  Being seasoned pros I accepted their wages would be pretty decent - i.e.:  I was surprised our transfer kitty stretched that far!

Viveash signed for Swindon not because of the money but because Andy King offered him 2 years rather than the one year on offer elsewhere.

Mooney had his Birmingham contract paid up so he actually wasn't bothered about what Swindon paid him. He left when it did matter to him what his wages were. As soon as he had to rely on his Swindon wage alone he legged it sharpish.

Smith had had six clubs in 4 years or so and consequently had no market value at all.

Nicholas joined Swindon on a very low wage with a view to it jumping up significantly when he'd proved himself as a first team player.

Evans was and is on average money for the Swindon squad. He's certainly on no more than Bart was.

So all the players in question made very little difference to the wage bill.

[Reg Smeeton]

BigStan is the oracle.....we're in deep dou dou and make no mistake about it.

  Its important that King stays to provide some stability......I do wonder though if the time is approaching  that he has had enough of trying to paper the cracks and will walk early doors after a poor start.

[BigStan]

You are saying Big Stan (I think) that we will not be able to replace these players given the perilous (and it is FUCKING perilous I know only too well) position of the club.  I beg to differ though.  I think we will replace them with equally good, if not better players. Or if not better players, then players with perhaps a bit more fight about them.

That's precisely what I'm saying.

As with all walks of life there's a going rate for the job in football.

In the vast majority of cases you get what you pay for.

So if what has been offered to the current Swindon players out of contract at the end of the season is considered to be unacceptable to them what persuades you to think that the same money and contract period is going to prove attractive to players better than them.

My logic is very simple.

The club will only need to sign new players if the current crop reject what's on offer and leave.

They'll only leave because they can get better deals elsewhere (otherwise they'd be staying).

That proves that there are better deals available.

So as a player better than the ones leaving Swindon why on earth would you accept a contract deemed totally unacceptable to them. If they can get a decent contract somewhere else then sure as eggs is eggs so can you.

[Dazzza]

The key to replacing players is all going to come down to how the transfer window affects the wheeling and dealing during the summer.

It is a gamble releasing Robinson, Hewtlett and Book.  Last summer we may have been in a position to offer similar wages and with the market state could have potentially snared better replacements.

This summer with not only a reduced wage bill to contend with the transfer window may well shift the emphasis back to player power.  Clubs are going to want cover in place for the start of the season and will be using the vast majority of the playing budget for the season to do so.  That will leave players that may have struggled to find clubs a year back being offered potentially several deals and with the increased competition on better terms than they could have expected.

Personally I don’t think the trio in question will be any great loss and without doubt will end up in the league below.  All three can be replaced effectively by younger players coming through the ranks, who if anything can consistently do an equal if not better job.  The problem being is that will leave nothing underneath as cover.  

If we now go on to lose the likes of Matty Heywood, Igoe and Evans it leaves a decimated squad that’s already likely to be using a lot of the cover of previous seasons in the first team.  With the increased competition in the transfer market there will be no guarantees that they can be replaced even with the calibre of Hewlett, Turbo and Book.  

At the end of the day it’s make or break for King.  Had it not been for the inevitably departing Parkin’s goals he would have been long gone.  The key to the re-build will be gambling on longer term and big incentive based contracts.  There will still be a few bargains to be had particularly as the season draws closer and player’s face not having a deal for the seasons kick-off.  Yet the problem then becomes risking everything on last minute deals that may not materialise and leave us screwed.