Right, here are some decent trends to try and narrow down the field in the National. Its not the "pinstickers" race that a lot of people think it is, some of these trends are pretty strong and can help you rule out a fair chunk of the field.
Weight - A good starting point is to take a line above Cloudy Bays. Anything above that horse in the weights is unlikely to win. 11st seems to be the "stopping" point for the amount of weight that a horse can carry to victory, or to even a place. In the last 30 years you have had
1977 Red Rum 11-08
1982 Grittar 11-05
1983 Corbiere 11-04
1988 Rhyme N Reason 11-00
2005 Hedgehunter 11-01
Carrying 11st or more. Indeed since 1983 you have had only 2 winners in 22 races carrying 11st or above. And one of those was dead on 11st, Hedgehunter 1lb over 11st.
Its a 4 1/2 mile slog and its a a real struggle for horses to carry this amount of weight over big fences for such a distance. The 11st "limit" stops most horses, there have only been 10 horses even placed in the last 22 races carrying this amount of weight.
The above makes you appreciate even more Red Rums wins under 11-08 in 77 and 12st in 1974
Your also wanting your horse to be carrying its proper handicapped weight and "in the handicap". Horses currently listed in in the Sporting Life racecard
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0...,222704,00.htmlTo carry anything below 10st will be carrying 10st on the day and therefore running "out of the handicap" ie carrying more weight than they should be based on the handicappers assessment. I think only Bobbyjo in 1999 and Little Polvier in 1989 has managed to win from out of the handicap since Rubstic in 1979. So, at the current weight, everything froim Dix Villez downwards is ruled out.
Age - No horse younger than 8 has won the National in 66 years. No horse older than 12 has won in 83 years.
Stamina - Every horse since 1970 winner Gay Trip has won over 3 miles. If your horse hasn't won over 3 miles by now then asking it to win over 4 1/2 at the National is a big ask.
French Bred - a trend I really like, no French bred horse has won the National since 1909. Fair enough there may not always have been a huge number of French breds in the field historically but over the last 6 years 25% of the field have been French bred. Clan Royal has come closest to breaking the trend in recent years, a 2nd and also being carried out by another horse when going well. However at 12 year old, it looks like his chance is past.
Why do French breds have a poor record in the National? Who knows. Why do African dominate races like the steeplechase at the Olympics? It must be something to do with the genetic make up of the horse (or athlete). Generally however there are not many French races over 3 miles so there is no need to for horses to have as much stamina as British horses therefore when it comes to a 4 1/2 mile race, they are lacking in the stamina needed to win such a long race.
Therefore rule out any horse on the Sporting Life card with FR beside them.
Previous National form - only one horse since 1988 (Amberleigh House) that has either won or placed previously has gone on win a National. Not a good trend for Numbersixvalverde fanciers. However previous National form does have some merits. In the last 20 years, 19 horses that have finished in the first 4 had run in the previous years race, including 8 which had either won or been placed.
Ratings - Every horse in the last 20 years has a rating of between 136 and 157. This mainly ties in with the weights trend. The higher the rating officially, generally the higher the weight a horse will carry. The 136-157 band covers roughly the 10 to 11st band but there are a few rated below 136 who are due to carry more than 10st. So again, you can rule them out. The official rating is shown on the Sporting Life card linked above, its the figure to the right of the horses, under OR. Only one horse with a rating above 154 has won in the last 17 years, only 2 further have been placed.
Other trends
Every winner in the last 10 years has won a race worth at least £17,000.
Every winner in the last 10 years has ran at least 10 races over fences.
Avoid horses wearing headgear (blinkers, visors etc). Only Earth Summit since 1975 has won with headgear on. 137 horses have tried in that time period so 1/137 isn't a great success rate!
Taking all that into account, the one that ticks all the right boxes at the moment is Point Barrow, last years Irish National winner (the Irish National has provided 4 of the last 8 winners of the Grand National). I will have a look later to see what else meets the trends mentioned as I always like to have a handful of runners in the race rather than banking on just one.
There will be no doubt some movement in the field in the next few days but it looks like the weights will stay as they are with Hedgehunter likely to take part. I am sure there will be some day when a 7 year old French bred carrying 11-7 wins the National and bucks a lot of these trends but until there is a concerted pattern of either French bred winners, horses carrying big weights or younger/older horses winning the national (say 5 or 6 in the next 10 years) then I will always put a lot of faith in the trends that have proved pretty successful in the last 20-30 (and in some cases nearly 100) years.
