Thetownend.com

Well, last season we tracked STFC's successful efforts to finish below the Beamish Line (https://thetownend.com/index.php?topic=59856.0).

This season, we're almost coming at it from the other direction - having put a bit of distance between ourselves and the relegation zone, can we look upwards towards not having the worst finish in our history for the second year in a row?

• We have 19 games left this season
• We currently have 28 points from 27 games, at 1.04 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.5 PPG so we're behind, but catching
• We need 1.42 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.68 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Newport (A) - 20th
Tranmere (H) - 22nd
Carlisle (A) - 24th
Port Vale (H) - 3rd
Harrogate (A) - 19th
Chesterfield (H) - 10th
Walsall (A) - 1st
Salford (H) - 7th
Doncaster (A) - 6th
Cheltenham (H) - 13th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 4th
Fleetwood (A) - 14th
Bradford (H) - 8th
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 11th
Gillingham (A) - 16th
MK (H) - 12th


We should be okay... those next three games are key, all against sides below us but two away.

Three links to help track:

• Points progression versus both the Morfuni Mark and the Beamish Line
  https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php (https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php)
  
  
• Points per game versus the last ten years of finishes in League Two
  https://townenders.com/stat_club_ppg.php?structure_code=M (https://townenders.com/stat_club_ppg.php?structure_code=M)
  
  
• ELO projection of the likelihood of table outcomes for each team/position
  https://townenders.com/stat_elo_table_projection.php?structure_code=M (https://townenders.com/stat_elo_table_projection.php?structure_code=M)
  
  

What a guy (Although one that needs a change of username I think)

Brilliant work this. That average points per game is a real good indicator of how bad it was and how far we've come. Still not out of yet but hopefully soon we can be well in the white zone.

The morfuni mark is hopefully an entertaining side thing to track towards the end of the season.

So we are still in a very precarious position?

brink of relegation danger according to that.

Fantastic stats👌 let’s get another 22 points minimum asap then analyse them in more detail.

Hope you don't mind, I took the liberty of changing your display name

Think we'll end up with around the same points as last season and likely around 7/8 points clear of relegation.

The next 3 games are massive

Not sure if it's the right thread for it, but Holloway and Kennedy have now managed the same number of League games (I'm not counting Gills for Holloway).

Kennedy
P13 W2 D5 L6 Pts 11 GF 14 GA 19 GD -5

Holloway
P13 W4 D4 L5 Pts 16 GF 18 GA 21 GD -3

So certainly an improvement, and I think Holloway passes the eye test more than Kennedy did too. I tried to measure difficulty of opponent by the league table, and Kennedy had a slightly harder schedule. The remaining fixture list is also slightly easier although we do have some really tough games including Walsall away.

It feels like the improvement has come later in Hollway's tenure, I mean it must have, 3 of our wins have come in the last 4 home games.  So we have momentum that isn't really reflected by the full 13 games.

Kennedy didn't get that, it was splutter splutter throughout.

If I was to defend Kennedy, it's pretty clear now that he had bad luck with injuries - Delaney and Clarke missed most of his tenure, and Smith a fair bit through suspension after randomly elbowing someone in the head for no reason.

He was still toss.

Just on general feeling around our recent performances I’d have expected a bit of a bigger gap.

However, I guess you need to take into account Kennedy had pre-season & got to build his team (maybe? I guess?) where as on the other hand Holloway took over Kennedy’s team & has had to eradicate what Kennedy left behind

Yeah early on we had some good cup results, but it was still pretty dross under Holloway for a good few games. Its more recently we've actually turned a corner.

The season progression chart on the second of the 3 links clearly shows that the upturn has been in the last few games. It's also a reminder we are far from safe at the moment.
I was surprised by the chart suggesting that 46 or more points would be needed to stay out of the bottom 2 this season - 44 would be more normal. It obviously reflects what we see week by week - a lot of the teams in this league are very similar in ability and anyone can beat almost anyone else. Injuries / suspensions will play into this, plus the impact of changes in January as most teams will have player movements in  and out.
Ultimately it will come down to being able to grind out some results by scoring / not conceding late goals.
6 wins and 2 draws, or an equivalent mix of wins and draws (3 draws is the same points as a win as a former head coach memorably said) would get us to 48 which should be enough.
7 or more  points from the next 3 would be very helpful, and would take points off teams around / below us.
 

PPG prophet Swindon chart (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250120/ae5664c3ec173afe0c256c4c2123e4c1.jpg)

A good start yesterday with three points at Newport. A few people losing the run of themselves and talking about promotion, but hey, it's just nice to be looking up for a change!

• We have 18 games left this season
• We currently have 31 points from 28 games, at 1.11 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.8 PPG (WLWDDWLDWW so we're behind, but catching
• We need 1.33 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.62 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.33 PPG

Open top bus tour by Clem and the OSC incoming?

Come on guys, they're doing their best!

"Gave you only your third ever lowest finish, what more do you want?"

James/Frank Spencer at his very best!

We’ve averaged 2.33 points over the last three games

EIEIEIO

We've averaged 3pts over the last one.

The stats don't lie.

I think it's pretty clear that if we can just play against Newport for the rest of the season we will go up.

Regrettably the EFL seems to want us to play against other teams. They've always had it in for us.

I'm hearing reports that the Clem statue has already been built. To be unveiled versus Port Vale  :soapy tit wank:

Another three points banked by the mighty Town, we're going to blaze past that mark right? We've pulled level with last season's PPG and feels like the momentum is much healthier. Lots of 17s below, stranegly

• We have 17 games left this season
• We currently have 34 points from 29 games, at 1.17 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.8 PPG (LWDDWLDWWW)
• We need 1.23 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.53 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.29 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Carlisle (A) - 23rd
Port Vale (H) - 7th
Harrogate (A) - 20th
Chesterfield (H) - 9th
Walsall (A) - 1st
Salford (H) - 8th
Doncaster (A) - 5th
Cheltenham (H) - 14th
Accrington (H) - 19th
Morecambe (A) - 24th
Wimbledon (H) - 6th
Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 3rd
Grimsby (A) - 10th
Bromley (H) - 13th
Gillingham (A) - 17th
MK (H) - 11th

So a fairly balanced fixture list, five games against teams below us, five against teams currently in the top seven and then seven against sides from 8th-15th.

Sort of interesting how the expectations are lowered (and how much direction/momentum matters) that we still need more than 1.5 PPG to beat the Beamish Line, and folk are pretty pleased (myself included!)

Last 6 is 2.16. Its close, its close :)

(no not really)

Based on that I think we'll be even above the Beamish line somewhere in the dizzy heights of our third or fourth ever lowest finish.

Commision the Clem statue now.

Maybe next season, if we can keep up the forward trend, we can raise our game and compete with the likes of... **checks notes** ... Fleetwood and Bromley

I'd love to see what their admin expenses were  :hmmm:

The dizzy heights of four in a row. We've not done that since the run-in to the playoffs under Garner. Hopefully going to blow past all marks and lines, but tougher challenges ahead.

• We have 16 games left this season
• We currently have 37 points from 30 games, at 1.23 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 2.1 PPG (WDDWLDWWWW)
• We need 1.13 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.44 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.25 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Port Vale (H) - 6th
Harrogate (A) - 20th
Chesterfield (H) - 10th
Walsall (A) - 1st
Salford (H) - 8th
Doncaster (A) - 2nd
Cheltenham (H) - 12th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 4th
Fleetwood (A) - 15th
Bradford (H) - 7th
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 16th
Gillingham (A) - 17th
MK (H) - 11th

Five of our next six against teams in the top 10 - now that's a good test of how much we've improved.

For those still dreaming of the playoffs, we've done 2.1 PPG over our last ten which is incredible... but we'd need to better it over the last 16!

9 games at home 7 away😁

Based on our early season form this probably wouldn’t have mattered, however with our current home form it could be a big advantage

Exactly that.

Is there any suggestion that 73 points might not be required this season? Not sure if this is a standard season or not. Obviously it’s the hope that kills you. It’s what stfc does. In the back of my mind I think how outclassed we were at notts county and Bradford and think this team can’t do it. This next couple of games will really show, in my eyes this league is horrific.

 I’m yet to see a decent performance but we are picking up truly decent results.

A good discussion on the supporters Facebook group on whether Clem should offer Holloway an extended contract now or run the risk of losing him with a unanimous yes to give him a 2 year deal.

Outclassed at Bradford? not how I remember it.

That game at Bradford was the most 0-0 game that didn’t finish 0-0 ever.

One mistake by Sobowale to let Bradford in & that was it.

The fact we're even thinking about the outside chance of nicking 7th is making me chuckle. What a fucking turnaround.

It was loose words and to be fair after typing it I went back and then cba to change. We weren't outclassed but it's a performance that sticks in my head for just how bad we were with no chance of getting a result. Is what I meant 🙈

"Dare to dream"...why not? It's what being a fan is all about. It's been an unbelievable turnaround as you say. After the Colchester debacle, in my mind there was no shadow of a doubt we were going out of the League. What we have seen in the last month, I would have considered to be utterly impossible at that point.

I love the fact he now just hoofs it out without thinking. Not going to make that mistake again

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Git_6waWMAAr4MS?format=jpg)

62 points, calling it now.

Keep the current trajectory and we hit the Green play off line in 7 games

We would probably need 11 or 12 more wins with the odd draw and defeat.

Ahh but you're forgetting that the data is fluid not fixed. Whilst it's possible that Town could hit that number of points in 7 games, the ''green PO line'' will have most likely have moved upwards too.

More ''proper'' might be to say that ''Keep the current trajectory and Town could be much closer to the green play off line, in 7 games time.''  ;)

It would probably take a Di Canio or Wellens team type run of 9-10 wins in a row to make the play offs.

Not sure this team is good enough yet, but keeping the core team together with Holloway and some additions, we could have a chance next season. Holloway has a good play off record as well.

This is the test of Clem and Co's football credentials. They have fallen on something that is working so do they back the manager, learning the lesson from Garner's season, and try to create momentum to flog season tickets.

Or the usual rip it up and start again. There will be clubs higher up the pyramid watching what Holloway has done and could be tempted. The only thing is our locality and at his stage of his career does he want to move away again?

It's great we've had an upturn in form, but you have to remember our 4 game streak came against 4 of the worst sides in the division. I just think we don't have enough in us to even get close to the playoffs. A loss or two in the next few weeks should bump us back to earth a bit.

Just get to 46 points. Then hopefully Clem & co fuck off and we can have our club back.

No one, but no one would have seriously predicted 4 wins from these last 4 games so lets just sit back, enjoy the ride and see where it takes us ;)

It's just bloody lovely to be able to actually look forward to games again...

Having a look at the games in hand teams have against us, we should have a clearer picture where we are by the end of the month. I think we'll still be around the 15th /16th mark

Fleetwood:
Tranmere (A) - 11th Feb
AFC Wimbledon (H) - 18th Feb
Gills (A) - 25th Feb

Bromley:
Salford (A) - 4th Feb
Bradford (H) - 25th Feb

Gillingham:
Walsall (A) - 11th Feb
Fleetwood (H) - 25th Feb
Chesterfield (A) - 8th April

Barrow:
Franchise (H) - 11th Feb
Port Vale (A) - no date set

Newport:
Morecambe (H) - 4th Feb
Carlisle (H) - 11th Feb
Accrington (A) - 11th March

Accrington:
Bradford (A) - 11th Feb
Tranmere (A) - 25th Feb
Newport (H) - 11th March

Tranmere:
Fleetwood (H) - 11th Feb
Accrington (H) - 25th Feb

Morecambe:
Newport (A) - 4th Feb
Doncaster (H) - 18th Feb

Carlisle:
Newport (A) - 11th Feb
Franchise (H) - date not set

https://townenders.com/stat_beamish_line.php

I see we have now caught up with the Morfuni Mark tracking. Closing in on the Beamish Line track.

The scary thing is we have been below both all season until now, and it's February!  Shows how bad Kennedy was doing and how well Holloway has done in recent months.

Holloway is currently running at the highest ppg of his managerial career.
Yeah, small sample set so far, but it really would be a miracle if he could keep that going & increase it over the next 16 games.

Would expect a drop off at some stage, but as a romantic idealist, miracles do sometimes happen.
Nah, not for us, no chance.

Source: Transfermarkt.  :google:

That PPG has been helped by a favourable run of fixtures.
If we go back to the Colchester defeat, since then we've played 4 teams above us - drawn 2, lost 2 - scoring only 1 goal in the process (Wimbledon away).
We lost at home to Doncaster and Walsall and away to Salford and Port vale earlier in the season - all of whom we play between now and 8th March.
Stand by for that PPG to drop off a bit as we get a more accurate measure of where we are.
If you think I'm being unduly pessimistic, think how poor we were for 85 mins v Tranmere last week.

I don't think anyone thinks we will proceed merrily at 2 PPG for the rest of the season, but it's just nice not being absolute dogshit for a bit.

Forgot to update this one after the Vale game, so here's how we stand midweek after a few games in hands have been played.

• We have 15 games left this season
• We currently have 38 points from 31 games, at 1.23 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.9 PPG (DDWLDWWWWD)
• We need 1.13 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.47 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.33 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Harrogate (A) - 21st
Chesterfield (H) - 10th
Walsall (A) - 1st but in shambles form
Salford (H) - 7th
Doncaster (A) - 5th
Cheltenham (H) - 17th
Accrington (H) - 20th
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 4th
Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 3rd
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 13th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 15th

Funny how even a "good" draw makes those ambitious goals of the playoffs zoom away from us, 2.33 PPG is silly stuff. 1.47 to beat the Beamish Line is still a pretty good effort, which just shows how bad we were at the start of the season!

We've already caught up to the Morfuni Mark, we should get past the Beamish Line and comfortably acheive our third or fourth worst finish ever.

I would ironically say comission the Clem statue now but I think some of his supporters would seriously agree.

We'll only lose 3 more!

We will make it to the play offs

We will not make it to the play-offs {due to train strikes}

Town may make the POs. One of us will be correct  ;)

What variety of steak do you use for your supper btw?  :girlgiggle:

I'm happy to put money on we won't!

40/1 on SkyBet, some money to be made there.

We'll all have a lovely few months if that comes off.

Let's see.  you do come across as a strange man / woman / non binary  individual.

That's a somewhat strange reply and rather personal...

I stated a likely tongue in cheek outcome with a pun - Not making the play-offs due to train strikes.

I stated a fact - Town may make the POs. One of us will be correct.

Your slug/handle/TEF name is ''Steak supper'' {the lowercase part of your second name is marginally triggering but hey ho}. I asked what might be deemed a very relevant and simple question to you - What variety of steak do you use for your supper?

Wtf is aggressively strange about that? And you stating ''Let's see'' ...let's see what? I think you've totally misinterpreted my first statement and missed the pun, plus failed in an basic comprehension of how words are used in a sentence {I mean, it wasn't even overly clever or cryptic - just a basic play on words}.

If a poster named ''Steak supper'' doesn't know what steak they have for their supper then there definitely is something wrong. After my Sean scores 6 {six} goals for Yeovil, against Wealdstone tomorrow, I know full well what he'll be having for his supper.

And no it's not crab paste ye cheeky mare. But if ya want sum - I'll give it ya.

You want to give me your crab paste ?  I am not up to speed with your vernacular . sounds like something I probably wouldn't want to eat thanks . Interesting offer though .

Clearly never heard of the Wealdstone Raider. It's ok, I'll do up your velcro slippers for you afterwards  :wink:

Well, that didn't help. With the games left number shrinking, we're looking at quite big swings with every result. Genuinely in "win every game" territory now for the playoffs, and need a pretty good run to beat the Beamish line.

• We have 14 games left this season
• We currently have 38 points from 32 games, at 1.19 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.8 PPG (DWLDWWWWDL)
• We need 1.21 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.57 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.5 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Chesterfield (H) - 10th
Walsall (A) - 1st
Salford (H) - 8th
Doncaster (A) - 6th
Cheltenham (H) - 13th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 2nd
Fleetwood (A) - 14th
Bradford (H) - 3rd
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 11th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 16th

Less bullish about my prediction we'll breeze past the beamish line while still falling well short of the play offs.

I'm hopeful we'll just about get over the beamish line, but still confident we'll be comfortably better than the morfuni mark.

Another three points in the bank.

• We have 13 games left this season
• We currently have 41 points from 33 games, at 1.24 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 2.0 PPG (WLDWWWWDLW)
• We need 1.07 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.46 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.46 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Walsall (A) - 1st
Salford (H) - 9th
Doncaster (A) - 2nd
Cheltenham (H) - 11th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 3rd
Fleetwood (A) - 14th
Bradford (H) - 5th
Grimsby (A) - 8th
Bromley (H) - 10th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 17th

Next four games are properly hard, and we probably need 9 points from them to keep the season alive. Good luck!

Intriguing thing for me now is whether we might be able to contribute to a relegation in either of our last two games - seems unlikely, but what a dream.

I think even getting to 60 points is a tall order and a great achievement considering the start we had.

I'd love to send Franchise down last game. Definitely unlikely but would be superb.

Or relegate the pikeys the week before.

Based on current projections (which of course isn't what will happen, but it's all we've got to work with) we'd probably need 75 points to make the playoffs. The maximum we can get is 80. Realistically we can afford to drop points in 2, maybe 3 games, and win the rest.

It just isn't going to happen. I never felt it was likely. Getting to 60 points and finishing top half would be a realistic goal and a pretty decent achievement given where we were not that long ago.

Keeping us interested, just about...

• We have 12 games left this season
• We currently have 44 points from 34 games, at 1.29 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 2.0 PPG (LDWWWWDLWW)
• We need 0.92 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.33 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.41 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Salford (H) - 9th
Doncaster (A) - 3rd
Cheltenham (H) - 12th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 5th
Fleetwood (A) - 13th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 8th
Bromley (H) - 10th
Gillingham (A) - 18th
MK (H) - 17th

9 wins, 2 draws and a loss.

Easy, then.

Well, that's one of the draws. Oddly the draw takes us closer to 7th, but obviously doesn't help our PPG tracking...

• We have 11 games left this season
• We currently have 45 points from 35 games, at 1.28 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 2.1 PPG (DWWWWDLWWD)
• We need 0.91 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.36 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.54 PPG

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Doncaster (A) - 3rd
Cheltenham (H) - 13th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 5th
Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 8th
Bromley (H) - 9th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 18th

9 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.

Minimum requirement then. Can afford to drop points in 2 out of 11 games.

Thats a massive ask, doable but bloody difficult.

A good result really, but we're almost out of mathematical hope. I've added a few more targets to the list to keep this interesting!

• We have 10 games left this season
• We currently have 46 points from 36 games, at 1.28 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 2.1 PPG (WWWWDLWWDD)
• We need 0.90 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.40 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.70 PPG
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1.6 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 1.9 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 2.3 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Cheltenham (H) - 14th
Accrington (H) - 21st
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 4th
Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 8th
Bromley (H) - 10th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 18th

It's pretty sad that matching the Flitcroft/Brown mark would probably mean we finish off the season feeling relatively happy about life.  How far we have slipped.

Just a question of where do we place in our worst ever finishes now. Nailed on to be top 5.

Not sure where to put this so here goes... So last home game I left my specs in the car in the CG Car park.

Asked at the turnstiles if i could go and get them. The guy waved over a head steward who said yes and they let me out through an exit door.

When I came back I asked the same guy if I could get back in. He said go through the turnstiles! I have a season ticket so  went to use it again!! It let me in!!  Just think about what this means!

To be clear the automated system let you in again, not the bloke?

Photocopiers... ready! (joking)

not very anti freeloader, is it?

saying that i struggle to get the scanners to work the first time sometimes.

Correct the system let me in.

So how many times could you use a season ticket on match day??! I would have thought any good system would have picked up the ticket had been used before and not let me in. How does this then affect the attendance figure that is quoted!

So even 8 wins and a draw wouldn't be enough if its 73.

Over the last 6 with the tougher games we are 1.5ppg. I think we are playing for the Brown/Wellens line.

They use tickets sold, not people in the stadium.  The risk would be multiple people using the same code I guess, which would reduce revenue and create a potential risk on safety.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fclubs-remaining-fixture-difficulty-based-on-home-away-ppg-v0-4ilrt1rfo1oe1.png%3Fauto%3Dwebp%26s%3Da070e4b0a35e4795b711cb7451337a3a7daf5fdf

Interestingly, this gives us the second easiest run in of any club based on opposition form.

The dream is over. But so is the nightmare. Now, we dream of relegating MK and Gills somehow... need Morecambe and Tranmere to go on a godly run though, so I don't think that's happening. We're going to end up around the Beamish Line I think.

• We have 9 games left this season
• We currently have 47 points from 37 games, at 1.27 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.9 PPG (WWWDLWWDDD)
• We need 0.88 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.44 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 2.89 PPG
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1.67 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 2.0 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 2.44 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Accrington (H) - 20th
Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 3rd
Fleetwood (A) - 14th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 9th
Bromley (H) - 11th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 18th

Absolutely, we are safe from relegation to the Bananarama league but also we are free of the "need" to win every game to make the play offs. The players are playing for new contracts now or to put themselves in the shop window.

It must be said that the change in fortunes is put down almost entirely to the change in managemental direction from Ian Holloway, who has a record since he took over of us on 25th October.

29 games in total and 23 league games W9 D8 L6.

Town suffering only the 1 home defeat in that time in 12 games at the County Ground 7 wins 5 and 5 draws. thats 10 games unbeaten at home and no home defeats since November 2024.

Of those 6 defeats only Colchester away and Notts County away have been by more than a single goal.

We have had 1 defeat in the last 12 games and 2 defeats in the last 17 games.

Add to that in the cups 3 wins, 1 normal time draw and 1 defeat only losing to L1 leaders Birmingham who are in the Vertu final.

The transformation has been astounding, ever since that woeful night at Colchester on 3rd December when we were stuffed 4-0 and sat 1 point adrift at the bottom of the table.

Looking at Wiki his win% here is better than its been anywhere else so far.

As said many times, some managers just suit clubs and the players available to them, this seems like he was able to take a vastly underperforming squad and galvanize them into a solid team, its just a shame he wasnt appointed in the Summer instead of Kennedy, but its easy to see things in hindsight.

 :sherlock: :shrug: I meant in total I messed up the league part :)

Really hits home how bad it was when we're struggling to get to the Lindsay/Morris/Gunning disaster.

Probably 3rd worst finish in history then, possibly 4th.

I've said this before - it is weird that it feels good when we are still heading for such a shit total season output.  I'm worried that I'm succumbing to the inevitable drift in expectations that seems to occur.  Not being top 3 is utter failure, repeat this mantra Rob.

I still hope that our goals may rise eventually when Clem finally sells the club to somebody who can and will invest in the squad and club in general.

Then I will reassess my season goals from mid table mediocrity to play off challenge and then to promotion.

Changing the mindset

I think the fact that in both the Lindsey/Morris/ Gunning and Flynn/Gunning seasons we started reasonably well (Lindsey had us in top 7 at one point, and of course we had Flynn’s Kemp/Young inspired start) but were awful after Christmas, whereas this season, many of us thought we were doomed after Colchester away and have enjoyed improved results since.
It’s the same as feeling better about a draw if we’ve equalised late than we do if we have conceded late. Turning round a bad position feels more positive than letting a good position slip away (and probably is).

To be fair we've sacked the manager in every L2 season we've ever finished below the playoffs as far as I can see (at least since the millennium). It's not a lack of ambition exactly, just a lack of ability to execute on it.

Of course you're both right, but this all has to be taken in the context of PV's stats above. Our current position is not acceptable, our final position this season will almost certainly be unacceptable, and yet we're travelling in a very good direction on the pitch. Since the Kennedy disaster and IH's tricky start up to Col U (A), we've been one of the top 4 or 5 teams in the division. The question is whetehr we can keep things in place so that carries on (and improves) into next season.

Four draws is more than a win!

• We have 8 games left this season
• We currently have 48 points from 38 games, at 1.26 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.7 PPG (WWDLWWDDDD)
• We need 0.88 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.5 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 3.1 PPG (tricky that)
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1.75 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 2.1 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 2.6 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Morecambe (A) - 23rd
Wimbledon (H) - 3rd
Fleetwood (A) - 13th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 7th
Bromley (H) - 12th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 18th

So the Lindsay/Morris/Gunning line is the realistic target.

Yay!

Considering the run we have had since Christmas it really illustrates what a total shit show the start of the season was....

Under Kennedy: 11pts in 13 games (0.84 ppg)

Under Gunning: 1pt in 1 games (1.00 ppg)

Under Holloway 35pts in 23 games (1.52 ppg)


Holloway's PPG over the season is 70pts, which probably gets us to just missing out on the playoffs. It's good, but it's not spectacular. We'd probably be slightly disappointed with that season in isolation!

I cant help but think as well if we were in a position to actually be challenging for the play offs at this stage then the players would give that "little bit extra" which could well work in our favour in a play off push.

As it stands we cant reach them so the players are pretty much coasting now it seems.

I mean you could argue that’s Holloway’s PPG is potentially dragged down by the earlier games where he’s had to slowly undo all of Kennedy’s bad work.

Hypothetically, if Holloway had taken over in the summer, had all of pre season to work on shape, tactics, fitness etc would his PPG be higher.

A moot point & unprovable but speculative all the same

Well, unless things go spectacularly wrong with the contract, next season will be that.

Assuming Bristol Rovers don’t collapse and get relegated and come calling😁

Starting to look a bit squeaky for that Beamish Line. Can Clem claim our two worst finishes in succession?

• We have 7 games left this season
• We currently have 48 points from 39 games, at 1.23 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.4 PPG (WDLWWDDDDL)
• We need 1.00 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.71 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 3.57 PPG (tricky that)
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 2 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 2.1 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 3 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Wimbledon (H) - 5th
Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 7th
Bromley (H) - 13th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 17th

Yeah it's turned in to Beamish line give or take.

One more win to match last season

• We have 6 games left this season
• We currently have 51 points from 40 games, at 1.28 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.4 PPG (DLWWDDDDLW)
• We need 0.67 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.5 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 3.67 PPG
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1.83 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 2.33 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 3 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Fleetwood (A) - 12th
Bradford (H) - 2nd
Grimsby (A) - 7th
Bromley (H) - 13th
Gillingham (A) - 19th
MK (H) - 18th

The Beamish line is in sight then. Yay

8 points from 6 games should be doable, although we love a draw lately.

Forty years ago today we played at home to Southend in front of a crowd of less than 3,000.

Town were sat 11th in Division 4, and we were about to start on a journey in the next 10 years that would lead us to the premier league.

It just goes to show how things can turn around.

That must be the famous game when Macari had just been sacked and the fans got him reinstated. Remember it well... 40 years ago, mind boggling. The next few years after that were utterly fabulous...

He came and sat in the North Stand about 3 or 4 minutes after kick off, he was sat about 4 rows behind me and got a standing ovation. I'm sure a couple of people went on the pitch too to protest although I could be wrong.

That was an incredible day. It showed the positive power of protest. Helped surround Macaris car after the game. Something changed that day for sure.

When the fanbase was not divided

Yep, the history of the Club would look much different today if the fans had just sat on their hands and done nothing. No Macari glory years, record breaking seasons, back to back promotions, play off wins, Cup runs (we used to have those!)...Ardiles...Hoddle...Premier League etc....a real 'sliding doors ' moment. To this day, I'm not aware of any other occasion where the fans have got a manager reinstated...(I'm sure someone will set me straight on that!)

We match the Morfuni mark! Someone build a statue asap.

• We have 5 games left this season
• We currently have 54 points from 41 games, at 1.32 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.6 PPG (LWWDDDDLWW)
• We need 0.2 PPG from here to beat the mark and reach 55 points
• Stretch goal: get to 60 points to beat the Beamish Line too: we'd need 1.2 PPG
• Wild hope: get to 73 points for the average last playoff spot, we'd need 3.8 PPG
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1.83 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 2.2 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 2.8 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Bradford (H) - 1st
Grimsby (A) - 7th
Bromley (H) - 12th
Gillingham (A) - 18th
MK (H) - 19th

60 points achieved with the win at Grimsby on Good Friday, so isn't that the Beamish line taken care of?

Hadn't realised I'd missed a game there, sorry

• We have 3 games left this season
• We currently have 60 points from 43 games, at 1.40 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.9 PPG (WDDDDLWWWW)
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 0.67 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 1.33 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 2.67 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Bromley (H) - 13th
Gillingham (A) - 17th
MK (H) - 19th

Some bonus stats:

PPG under Kennedy: 0.85 (11 in 13)
PPG under Holloway: 1.63 (49 in 30)
PPG since (not including) the Colchester (A) nadir in 4th December: 1.88 (47 in 25)

Ian Holloway is not on the L2 manager of the season shortlist, by the way...

That is absolutely superb numbers - what a turnaround

Over a full season that would be 86 points, Port Vale who are top can only get 85 with three wins.

Balls.

• We have 2 games left this season
• We currently have 60 points from 44 games, at 1.36 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.6 PPG (DDDDLWWWWL)
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 2.5 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 4.5 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

Gillingham (A) - 17th
MK (H) - 18th

That's that then. Can't even relegate MK.

This displeases me greatly.

Be interesting to see what Holloway does with the last two games now the outside chance of the play offs is gone.

Mathematically we can still finish anywhere between 8th or 17th - does finishing higher up the table earn us much more ‘prize’ money?

Do we go for it to maximise our points haul?
Do we rest those who we know are here next season? …and play those whose future is undecided? Or do we do the opposite?
Do we blood youngsters?

Holloway would be silly to not go out to win games
A. because it is all confidence building
B. because it helps his win rate
C. the higher we finish in the league the higher the performance/position payout from the EFL (even though its not much for each position but to a club of our size even £25k or £30k payout would be nice).

Doesn't matter where we finish interms of dosh as far as I know for League 2, different in the Premier League.  Pre-season starts today, Ollie mentioned in his post-match that he was now going to look at players under contract for next season, so expect some yoofs in line-ups in addition to the core for next season.

I am sure I read that the higher the finish the more league prize money you get in every division of the EFL.

https://plymouth.vitalfootball.co.uk/how-much-prize-money-for-winning-l2/

It's just a random website & reddit, which may just have taken the information from the 1st but a quick google says there's no prize money in league 2. Everybody gets the same payment

In googling that, this also popped up so sadly Morfuni won't be able to put millions into player recruitment going forward... https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c36e4068113o

He can still plough millions into admin expenses though.  :D

We've matched Lindsay/Morris, we can only match Brown/Wellens, Flitcroft/Brown is out of reach.

• We have 1 game left this season
• We currently have 61 points from 45 games, at 1.35 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.6 PPG (DDDLWWWWLD)
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points, which we'd need 1 PPG to beat
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points, which we'd need 4 PPG to beat
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points, which we'd need 7 PPG to beat

Remaining games are: (current league positions)

MK (H) - 18th

so what is that joint third worst season on record at present. fourth if we at least draw.

Morfuni has three of the bottom five regardless.

Looking at 22-23 and recalling how gash both Morris and Gunning were, bloody hell Lindsey started well.

For finality's sake:

• We currently have 62 points from 46 games, at 1.35 PPG
• Last season, we achieved 54 points from 46 games at 1.17 PPG
• The last ten games, we're running at 1.6 PPG (DDLWWWWLDD)
• In 22/23 under Lindsay/Morris/Gunning we reached 61 points
• In 18/19 under Brown/Wellens we reached 64 points
• In 17/18 under Flitcroft/Brown we reached 68 points

So there we go, all the momentum of the second half of the season made us nearly as good as Phil Brown. Kennedy has a lot to answer for.

We beat Lindsay/Morris/Gunning and Flynn/Gunning as well as the Beamish line.

Here's to not having a thread like this last season.

So 5th worst finish of all time?

Might get a nose bleed. 4 of 5 worst finishes ever under Clem now.

"Swindon supporters have suffered enough"  :Ride On Fatbury's Lovestick:

Well I've certainly changed my mindset!

Who was the owner during the Beamish Line era? Hillier? Was he even the owner? Know he was Chair.

Sir Seton Wills I think.

Early 90s Wills came in to the picture, didn't he?

I think Maurice Earle was the chairman in the 83-84 season taking over from Cecil Green. I also think Brian Hillier became chairman a year or so later as he was the chairman when Lou Macari was sacked/reinstated at Easter 1985.