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We've conceded a goal in the last five minutes (+stoppages) TEN TIMES this season in all competitions.

There have been four games in the league where there has been a goal in the last 5 minutes that changed the result. (So this excludes Oldham we conceded in the last five minutes, but we also scored and Gillingham, where we were already 4-0 down.)

These four times, it's turned a win for us into a draw. So we've dropped 8 points. The really annoying thing is that this has happened twice against Charlton (+ once against Wycombe and once against Southend).

If the whistle had blown at Swindon games after 85 minutes, the top of the league would look like this:

Norwich     63
Leeds   61
Swindon    57
Charlton    53
Colchester    52
Millwall    47

We'd be safe in the play-offs and looking at Leeds with a game in hand, and Charlton would be looking over their shoulder.

FUCK OFF TWAT

Off your meds?

Surely you need to apply the same rules to all clubs' games for this to have any worth - actually, scratch that, even then it wouldn't.  If we had scored fifty goals in every game we'd be top.  

Just apply it to Charlton - they've saved 4 points against us and lost 2 to Norwich
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/c/charlton_athletic/results/default.stm>

It just doesn't seem to happen to other clubs as often as us.

If you uncle had a fanny he'd be your aunt.

Stats are boring. Made up stats are fucking pointless.

Statistics say that 9 out of 10 people enjoy gang rape.

Now that one is true.

I was just working this out at lunch time!  Spooky.

Only I made it 5 games that we'd drawn from winning positions in the last 5 mins:  Wycombe, Exeter, Charlton (A), Southend and Charlton (H) - so 10 points dropped.

In all, we've conceded 11 goals in the last 5 minutes, and only scored 3, but then I suppose we've been in winning positions more often that we've not been, so there's no real drive to push on for a goal.

We've not scored an end-of-the-game winner for ages. They're brilliant.

If only goals by people called Austin and Paynter counted we'd be top, and we'd have a cracking goal difference.  These stats are quite fun.

Exeter was paint pot.

Look at Leeds' results - they're quite good at getting late goals to turn draws into wins.

I wrote a long answer to this but I've deleted it as there was clearly no point attempting to explain to you what you've done wrong here. To have such a stunning ability with stats you would have to be shadow home secretary. Well done.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!  :Ride On Fatbury's Lovestick: :girlgiggle:

If games stopped for five minutes between 50 and 55 then we'd have nine points less.

 I think the stats clearly show we have a problem...of interest is what's to be done about it?

Wake up Reg, we've covered that - we're going to play 85 minute games. 

We definitely conceded a late equaliser in the league game because I saw it happen. And I wasn't at the Paint Pot match.

For what it's worth, which ain't much.

All it shows is that we have a problem with late goals.
1. Do we have a problem conceding late goals? Yes
2. Is this costing us league points? Yes
3. Is it frustrating to be sitting on a one-goal lead with no confidence that the team can hold it? Yes

I don't see why everyone's being weird about this. If we conceded lots of goals from set-pieces or gave away a lot of penalties then that would be the thing to work on. We don't. We're conceding them late. Is it fitness, concentration, shape, the other team going for it? Who knows. But to pretend it's not a fact is just odd.

Reg likes  this :thumb:

We need to invent some ultra strong tractor beam type thing, that can drag the ref's watch hand back 5 mins.

It's a shame fB left the TEF, as it would have given him something to do.

Exactly. As much as you try to rip these stats apart, they DO show something and they DO justify iffy's point. He's not saying we deserve to be above Charlton, or that we should be above them, but that there is an issue preventing us from being above them. An issue which relly does need to be sorted out.

Forward five minutes, surely?

No-one is pretending we don't concede late goals - I think we all agree its a problem.  People don't see the point in a make believe league table showing how it would look if [insert bizarre and inconsistent made up rule here].

If the table was decided on a rolling alpabetical basis beginning at S, we'd be 4th.

We've been fucking amazing this season. The first 40 minutes against Charlton were amazing.

But we panic like schoolboys for the last 5-10 minutes in games that we haven't put away.

The point of the table was to show that we'd be borderline automatic promotion with games in hand if this wasn't a problem.

I'm sorry I used hypothetical "numbers" to make this point. This has clearly confused and upset people. I am very sorry. In future I will revert to the far more constructive "FUCK OFF TWAT".

Don't call me Shirley.  I still have problems with the clocks going back or forward, after all the years I've been subjected to it. There's probably some name for a mental block about clock changing....whatever it is I've got it.

What if it is a digital watch though?

Don't do that, no-one listens to jayohaitchenn. 

Caught me on a bad day, but my point (However bluntly i put it) stands.

FUCK OFF TWAT.

:D

Good point, then we need something like a laser to speed up the piezoelectric vibrations in the quartz...

You can borrow mine.

But surley if games were 85 mins long, we would still concede goals in the last 5 mins but it would just be from 80-85mins + stopage time instead of 85-90mins + stoppage time.

Prehaps we should end games when we take the lead.

if we played football inside the tardis we'd win

Shit me sideways, we concede late goals.

Has someone told Wilson?

Hmm, this is a problem, i hope someone's let him know.

I haven't read the whole thread, because these kind of discussions have no great relevance, unless viewed across the league, so we can see if it is as bad as some think it is.

What i mean is your table at the start iffy is all well and good, but only if you remove goals scored in the last five minutes by us and all other teams.

Also, might be fair to calculate total goals conceded in the last five minutes in the whole football pyramid (PL, CCC, L1 & L2) so far this season, then divide this by total teams and see how badly if at all we are above the average.

That wouldn't work Reg. Unless it was the lasers used for inertial confinement fusion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_confinement_fusion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertial_confinement_fusion)) and then the poor old ref would be dispersed into hyperspace as he had all of his molecules disassembled. Not a bad idea considering Saturday's effort.

No, we need to accelerate the County Ground away from Earth at nearly light speed at 85 minutes and bring it back ten minutes later. The ref's watch would stay in the buger van outside the Don Rogers, obviously.

If I had to guess i'd say we would be above average.

however, that due to the fact we are in the lead in alot of games and the other teams have nothing to lose and go for it.

A team like Stockport probably dont conceed as many late goals as us - because they game is over for them before the last 10 minutes.

Whilst its a bit of a bastard to blame the strikers - not taking our chances is just as much to blame as anything. We put the game to bed the other team doesnt have anything to play for, they dont bomb forward, we arent under pressure, we dont conceed

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/ptslost.html
In the Premiership, it's very rare for a team to lose once it's taken the lead. Only the bad teams (West Ham, Bolton, Wigan, Hull) give up leads for draws. These team are good at shutting up shop and they tend not to concede in the last 5 minutes.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/ptslost.html
In the Championship, most teams have lost from a winning position only one or two times. Reading are the exception, losing 4 times from a winning position. Championship teams are more likely to give up leads for draws. The worst is Ipswich, who have drawn 8 times after taking the lead, but they're the exception.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/ptslost.html
We have drawn from a winning position 6 times. That's the second highest in our league (after Southampton). 5 of these times the goal we conceded in the last 5 minutes.

F365 call this stat "resolve". Without subscribing to the full Opta database, I'd guess our "resolve" in the last 5 minutes is possibly the worst of all 92 clubs.

I'm sorry this is either i) completely obvious or ii) statistically offensive to those of you who work at the ONS, but it is a fact.

 If you compare to a couple of our nearest likely rivals...Millwall and Huddersfield, then Huddersfield have conceded 3 goals in the last 5 mins costing them 3 points....Millwall have conceded 4 goals in the last 5 mins costing them 2 points...in fact in 2 of those games Millwall, scored an equaliser after going behind in the last 5 or added on time.

 It would be fairly easy to research the rest but I can't be arsed....but I'm fairly confident our 9 goals shipped and 10 points lost isn't the norm.

I thought it was a fairly interesting stat, not sure why there was hostility.

Still, no matter. For whatever reason we can't seem to shake it. It happened last year too didn't it. Even with a nearly new team its still happening. Its bizaare.

The question has to be asked is fitness a problem? You'd think they'd have analysed that already.

Is it Timlin has a gypsy curse on him. Clearly not as he didn't even come on v Charlton.

Of course I'm sure the players/manager/coaching staff have analysed it to the n'th degree already!

Why don't we kick off 5 minutes earlier ?

It's worth thinking about....nobbling the 4th officials board, so that it shows 0 extra minutes of added on time might work.

If that had have been your opening post I would have agreed with you x

FUCK OFF TWAT

There was a player ready to be subbed on just before the goal, but from where I sit in the Arkells I couldn't see who. I bet it was Timlin. Perhaps someone who had a view of the dugout could confirm?

Looking at those stats I'd suggest we wouldn't be doing to well if we were playing in the Premiership this season then.  I think we'd be around 6th in League 1 though.

DV's hit the nail on the head I think, it's more about the fact that we've only been 1 goal in front with about 15 minutes to go that leads to this issue.  I suggest iffy pops through all the other teams fixtures and checks out how many times they've been 2 goals up compared to us, then we can strip out the outliers in the sample.

It may be a problem, but it's because we are not quite good enough to outstrip every team every game.  Can't we just celebrate being 6th or is that too last season?

Me neither. Very odd. You know you have a problem when the oppo's manager says, "We knew Swindon were prone to conceding late goals so we just kept going" or something like that.

I would have thought the answer was just to keep playing the same way that got you a goal/two goals up in the first place and don't drop so pissing deep. I can't see why it's so hard.

(waits for some one to say 'FUCK OFF TWAT')

Likewise. Attack is the best form of defence (some Chinese arsehole general said that in about the 5th century BC). But what do I know?

That would be Sun Tzu. 

I don't think you really need stats to confirm that we lose too many points in the last 5 minutes and equally that we don't win too many points in the last 5 minutes either.

There does seem a definite improvement on last season though when it felt like every game we had a lead it was never safe until the final whistle. But this season there have been plenty of games where we've had a 1 goal lead and I've been confident we'd see it through (and we did).

I reckon its fatigue (fitness, strength, mental etc). Partly due to the large number of games most of our team play (as there is no cover) and partly due to the way we play. We seemed to be working a lot harder than Charlton for the first 85 minutes and then when they turned up the heat, we didn't have anything left in the tank.

I'd give Morrison a run out and give Cuthbert and Greer a game or two off, same with Pericard and the front two.

Pericard is injured, or at least was.

We sat back on a one goal lead for 30 minutes. Eventually when they went for broke in the last few minutes the pressure got too much. Could have been a handful up by then though, just not our day I don't think.

That's just a complicated way of saying it was our day.

Easy answer to all this, just get all the crowd to start whistling for the final whistle around about 83 minutes.....we may confuse the ref  :)

Yeah, too many negatives. You knew what I meant though, right?

Simple as that. It really is. Football's a simple game made far more complicated than it needs to be.

Here's the answer, a rather cunning stunt I'd say. In games where we are leading by 1 goal with 5 minutes remaining we should score an own goal thereby lulling the opposition into a false sense of job done and whilst they are feeling relaxed we nip down the other end and score the winner.

Its not that simple as the other team attack more and force us back.

We can analysis our team all we want but the opposition have to play their part as well.

...I also want some of what Jonny is on. Rest Greer and/or Cuthbert. Not even Andy King would do something as stupid as that.

Its not that simple as the other team attack more and force us back.

We can analysis our team all we want but the opposition have to play their part as well.

...I also want some of what Jonny is on. Rest Greer and/or Cuthbert. Not even Andy King would do something as stupid as that.

It was Easton.

That's good news because it proves that the problem is not a gypsy curse, so hopefully it's something Danny and the players can do something about - starting tonight - because I just don't think we've got the support to shift the Earth into a different orbit.