War in Europe

[Mooneyraker]

What's the end game here?

Russia withdraws back to 2022 borders but gets to keep Crimea as a de-militarised zone.

[@MacPhlea]

Russia withdraws back to 2022 borders but gets to keep Crimea as a de-militarised zone.

The US has already stated that it sees Crimea as Ukrainian - Russia needs to completely withdraw and be exiled.  The sad thing is, there is no-one in the wings to replace Putin that would be any better unless Navalny changes his position on Ukraine as well but does appear to be Sponsored by the US

[Mooneyraker]

The US has already stated that it sees Crimea as Ukrainian - Russia needs to completely withdraw and be exiled.  The sad thing is, there is no-one in the wings to replace Putin that would be any better unless Navalny changes his position on Ukraine as well but does appear to be Sponsored by the US

People state lots of things when wars are still 'hot'. We are not going to see a total surrender from Russia or Ukraine marching on Moscow and inflicting an absolute defeat on the Russian state. Therefore a negotiated peace is by far the most likely outcome. Russia will go in with Crimea as a red line and I suspect there will be a fudge there, such as de-militarising it.

[Batch]

Is there a danger of "fatigue" amongst Ukraine's allies. I hope not but I can see an undercurrent of "why are we spending this much on it when xxx is broken at home".

I don't think support will be withdrawn unless a tool like Trump gets in again.

[Qunk]

Is there a danger of "fatigue" amongst Ukraine's allies. I hope not but I can see an undercurrent of "why are we spending this much on it when xxx is broken at home".

I don't think support will be withdrawn unless a tool like Trump gets in again.

I hope that’ll it’ll be even more difficult to justify removing support than it will continuing it, in light of what has already been spent and donated. I can’t see Europe wavering. Less certain though about the US Trump manages to return

[Bogus Dave]

The Wagner group, Russian mercenaries who had done much of the fighting in Ukraine and recently withdrawn whilst being critical of the Russian military, have taken over the Russian city of Rostov and claimed to be ‘heading to Moscow’

Sure this ends well.

[Nemo]

I'm shocked to hear that press ganging criminals into a private army might lead to a situation you can't control.

[DMC]

I am really naive to this stuff so apologies.

So what is actually happening here. Are a rogue group of criminals wanting to get rid of Putin? I assume their assets have all been blocked some how and this has led to frustration?

[Mooneyraker]

Wagner is a private military company (mercenaries) that have been doing the dirty work for Putin for years, in Syria, Africa, all sorts of places.

They are run by a former hot dog salesman who built up a vast catering empire (like a sort of Sodexo) before moving into this particular niche.

They have been used heavily in Ukraine but the hot dog salesman has become increasingly irritated by cowardice, lies and deceit in Moscow. He has now turned on them and taken control of a Russian territory on the border of Ukraine and has supposedly got 25,000 blokes ready to push on Moscow. Given that the Russian military is currently hollowed out, it might get interesting.

[Audrey]

Here’s a startling fact when it comes to private ‘security’ groups.

Top private military contractors (number of employees):

🇬🇧 G4S: 533,000
🇺🇸 Alliedbarton: 220,000
🇷🇺 Wagner Group: 50,000+
🇺🇸 KBR: 28,000
🇺🇸 Academi: 21,000
🇺🇸 CACI International: 20,000
🇺🇸 DYNCORP: 14,000
🇬🇧 Control risks: 3,000

[Mooneyraker]

Here’s a startling fact when it comes to private ‘security’ groups.

Top private military contractors (number of employees):

🇬🇧 G4S: 533,000
🇺🇸 Alliedbarton: 220,000
🇷🇺 Wagner Group: 50,000+
🇺🇸 KBR: 28,000
🇺🇸 Academi: 21,000
🇺🇸 CACI International: 20,000
🇺🇸 DYNCORP: 14,000
🇬🇧 Control risks: 3,000

There are some serious apples and oranges being compared on this list!

G4S providing a security guard for your local Sainsburys isn’t quite on a par with Wagner providing a multi role war fighting brigade in the Central African Republic!

[Qunk]

Wagner is a private military company (mercenaries) that have been doing the dirty work for Putin for years, in Syria, Africa, all sorts of places.

They are run by a former hot dog salesman who built up a vast catering empire (like a sort of Sodexo) before moving into this particular niche.

They have been used heavily in Ukraine but the hot dog salesman has become increasingly irritated by cowardice, lies and deceit in Moscow. He has now turned on them and taken control of a Russian territory on the border of Ukraine and has supposedly got 25,000 blokes ready to push on Moscow. Given that the Russian military is currently hollowed out, it might get interesting.

I absolutely agree with you, but while I completely understand the sentiment in deriding him as a ‘hot dog salesman’ (he’s obviously a prick) let’s not pretend he’s not an extremely powerful person. Looks like the dude is about to march on Moscow. Can’t wait to see it!

[Nemo]

Not sure G4S tend to recruit by offering violent prisoners clemency in return for 12 months service. Although they'd probably try it if they were allowed.

[Audrey]

There are some serious apples and oranges being compared on this list!

G4S providing a security guard for your local Sainsburys isn’t quite on a par with Wagner providing a multi role war fighting brigade in the Central African Republic!

Not so.

https://aoav.org.uk/2018/britains-private-military-and-security-industry-examined/#:~:text=G4S%2C%20one%20of%20the%20UK%27s,sometimes%20directly%20involved%20–%20in%20combat.

[Qunk]

Not so.

https://aoav.org.uk/2018/britains-private-military-and-security-industry-examined/#:~:text=G4S%2C%20one%20of%20the%20UK%27s,sometimes%20directly%20involved%20–%20in%20combat.

Point was they don’t recruit convicts in return for their freedom. There’s still a tonne of oversight that doesn’t apply to something like Wagner, who basically operate with impunity