Energy company switch

[mystical_goat]

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/01/martin-lewis--was-the-price-cap-advice-to-do-nothing-in-october-/

Having done the numbers, depending on what you assume happens in October and that's the really difficult bit, I wouldn't be looking at fixing now unless I can get a fix that was no more than 40%-ish above the price cap. That's what I'd say. Think of that as a rough number – 40% above the price cap if you want price certainty. 

Now I may be persuadable, if someone said to me: 'I really want price certainty and I've got something that's 50% above', well, if we do see a rise in October that may well be a winner in hindsight. So, I certainly might stretch to the 50% mark, but I certainly wouldn't stretch to the 70% mark.

It takes 17 days to do the switch across and that timing is important because of course the nearer we get to the 1 April when prices jump, the less of the current, relatively cheap price you're giving up to move to the 1 April cap. So, if you could get a fix right now that was going to be what we expect the price cap to go to on 1 April, which is about £1,925 a year on typical use, from £1,277 a year, that may well be worth it.

"But again, a lot of this involves assumptions. And I've looked over one year, not three years. If prices were to rocket again. I mean, look, a war in Europe – a war in Ukraine – would be absolutely devastating in every way.

I was with one of the providers (Green) who went bust about 4 months ago and have been transferred to Shell's Flexible 6 tariff, which I'm free to leave.

Currently with Shell I pay 20.6p/Kwh and 24.1p standing charge.

I can lock in with OVO on a fixed 12 months, 33.5p/Kwh and standing charge 43.3, about a £313 annual increase on my current tariff overall.

It's the price cap that confuses me though - from 1st April prices will increase by approx 50%. So the Shell rates presumably go to about 40p/kwh and 48p standing charge. The fixed rates then look a lot more appealing.

Stick or twist?

[Nemo]

Think the new price cap is being announced tomorrow, right? I would say wait 24 hours and there'll be updated advice from MSE and the like, but I suppose if it's worse than expected the best rates may disappear.

[Batch]

same issue here goat. no idea what is the cheapest way forward

[Sippo]

My gas fixed ends 1st April with Octopus.

Don't think anyone knows which way it is all going to go!

If anyone wants £50 credit... https://share.octopus.energy/storm-goose-438

[Samdy Gray]

My gas fixed ends 1st April with Octopus.

Same, well March actually.

Got an email through from them the other day. Current annual amount for gas & electricity - £660.67. New annual amount if I choose their 12m 'loyalty' fix - £2,842.54.

Just the 400%+ increase.

[Berniman]

From what I understand, you won't know until October whether the decision you make is the right one.  There is talk of a potential further 20% increase in October, if that happens then switching now would have been the right move, if it doesn't then you will be out of pocket compared to your current deal.

If Martin Lewis is unable to advise what to do, then let's face it, we have no chance.  It's a roll the dice thing for everybody this year methinks..

If it is important for you to know roughly what you will be paying for the next 12 months, then switch - at least you know roughly what you are budgeting for.  I personally will be sticking with the current non-contract deal with full knowledge it will be going up in April - see what that looks like and hope that October is not a double whammy.. 

I reckon that once the April hike happens and the reality sets in for those that are oblivious to these things until they get their first bill, the pressure will crank on the Givernment to step in and do something about it and hopefully avoid a further hike in Oct.

Nobody really knows though

[Bob's Orange]

Same, well March actually.

Got an email through from them the other day. Current annual amount for gas & electricity - £660.67. New annual amount if I choose their 12m 'loyalty' fix - £2,842.54.

Just the 400%+ increase.

Yeah I also got that mail (Feb 18th for us). the 12m Fixed and the Loyalty Fixed amounts are staggeringly high. Think I'll stick with the Flexible amount and hope for the best!! We overpaid by quite a lot last year so hopefully that will provide a buffer for a few months!  

[Bob's Orange]

From what I understand, you won't know until October whether the decision you make is the right one.  There is talk of a potential further 20% increase in October, if that happens then switching now would have been the right move, if it doesn't then you will be out of pocket compared to your current deal.

If Martin Lewis is unable to advise what to do, then let's face it, we have no chance.  It's a roll the dice thing for everybody this year methinks..

If it is important for you to know roughly what you will be paying for the next 12 months, then switch - at least you know roughly what you are budgeting for.  I personally will be sticking with the current non-contract deal with full knowledge it will be going up in April - see what that looks like and hope that October is not a double whammy..  

I reckon that once the April hike happens and the reality sets in for those that are oblivious to these things until they get their first bill, the pressure will crank on the Givernment to step in and do something about it and hopefully avoid a further hike in Oct.

Nobody really knows though

On the news today they were saying that there is something in the pipeline that the govt is doing which should reduce £200 per year from everyone's energy bill, but I being an Audrey and wasn't paying complete attention so I could be talking crapola.

[Sippo]

I can tell you now, we cannot afford a 400% increase. Will have to take the chance, like many I guess.

[Batch]

Just the 400%+ increase.

holy fuck sticks.

but don't worry, the government are considering a £200 handout to everyone...

[Samdy Gray]

Actually, thinking about it I don't know where they get the £660 per year figure from because I'm already paying £100+ per month.

[jayohaitchenn]

Actually, thinking about it I don't know where they get the £660 per year figure from because I'm already paying £100+ per month.

Was going to say, that £660 looks extremely cheap. I'm paying about twice that.

[Batch]

Actually, thinking about it I don't know where they get the £660 per year figure from because I'm already paying £100+ per month.

aha

[BambooToTheFuture]

Might be cheaper to just move out for a few months, only pay your standing charge, work remotely* and rent an apartment in Albania or something...

Lets say:

You face a £1500 fuel bill hike (from c£900 to £2400 pa)

Beachfront apartments on the Albanian Riviera available for c£10pn/£280pm (4 wk)

Fuel standing charge avg 30p pd = £9pm

3 months in Albania (or similar) c£860

Call it £900 (inc fuel sc)

Stemmed the price hike increase

Return to blighty with horrendous post beachfront living blues

Face the price hike ultimately or hope something has changed

For everything else - there's MatserCard

[@MacPhlea]

So my electric bill already averages £420 a month - that with Octopus Go and 15p between 04:30 and 00:30 and 5p between 00:30 and 04:30...

I'll let you do the math but I think it now makes economic sense for me to skip solar and wind power and jump to building my own nuclear power station