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Author Topic: Remaining Games  (Read 3232 times)
Flashheart


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« on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 09:05:15 »

I thought I'd make a thread, and I'll keep it updated as games are played.

--------------------------------------------

I did some numbers.

These are the average league positions of who the top 4 have yet to play

Swindon   15.06
Exeter      13.52
Crewe      13.00
Plymouth  12.83

I don't know what you can make of that, other than we have the easiest run in on paper.

I also went through and guessed the points haul of each team in their remaining games. It was quite rudimentary - going by nothing more than the opposition's league position and whether the game is home or away. The final point tallies were:

Swindon   96
Exeter      95
Plymouth  95
Crewe      90

This assumes a draw on Saturday - big game.

I might get around to adding a couple more teams because there's others still in the mix, but I need to get some work done.
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pauld


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« Reply #1 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:00:06 »

I thought I'd make a thread, and I'll keep it updated as games are played.

--------------------------------------------

I did some numbers.

These are the average league positions of who the top 4 have yet to play

Swindon   15.06
Exeter      13.52
Crewe      13.00
Plymouth  12.83

I don't know what you can make of that, other than we have the easiest run in on paper.

I also went through and guessed the points haul of each team in their remaining games. It was quite rudimentary - going by nothing more than the opposition's league position and whether the game is home or away. The final point tallies were:

Swindon   96
Exeter      95
Plymouth  95
Crewe      90

This assumes a draw on Saturday - big game.

I might get around to adding a couple more teams because there's others still in the mix, but I need to get some work done.
That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl)
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4D


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« Reply #2 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:00:37 »

I reckon we'll get 102  Wink
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #3 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:01:22 »

That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl)

Flasher pointed out it is his guesswork....
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Flashheart


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« Reply #4 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:02:46 »

My guesswork mainly meant giving 3 points in all matches against teams lower down, so there will likely be more points dropped than I have predicted.
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singingiiiffy


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« Reply #5 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:05:00 »

That's a very high total for the points required for autos - isn't the 10-year average something like 80-odd points to get promoted? (Sure I read this somewhere fairly authoritative the other day, but can't immediately find it now and don't have time to trawl)

Thanks for the compliment I guess! It was in my promotion points thread of ppg:

10 Season average for auto 81 points average 1.76 ppg
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pauld


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« Reply #6 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:05:05 »

Fair enough. I'm going on 80+ for autos so 24 more points needed to scrape into that kind of zone, maybe a few more to guarantee it. 8 wins.
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pauld


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« Reply #7 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:06:25 »

Thanks for the compliment I guess! It was in my promotion points thread of ppg:

10 Season average for auto 81 points average 1.76 ppg

Ha ha, it was indirectly down to your post. After seeing your post, I wanted to check and did go and check it somewhere I now can't remember. I will never doubt your stats again Smiley
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singingiiiffy


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« Reply #8 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:07:59 »

My guesswork mainly meant giving 3 points in all matches against teams lower down, so there will likely be more points dropped than I have predicted.

May as well merge the threads then its all in one.
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Bob's Orange


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« Reply #9 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:13:21 »

Remaining games.

Exeter (H)
Carlisle (A)
Northampton (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Grimsby (H)
Mansfield (A)
FGR (H)
Oldham (A)
Stevenage (A)
Crawley (H)
Walsall (A)
Salford (H)
Cheltenham (H)
Morecambe (A)
Orient (H)
Macclesfield (A)

Surely we can get enough points to go up from that lot?
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pauld


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« Reply #10 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:14:56 »

Remaining games.

Exeter (H)
Carlisle (A)
Northampton (A)
Scunthorpe (H)
Grimsby (H)
Mansfield (A)
FGR (H)
Oldham (A)
Stevenage (A)
Crawley (H)
Walsall (A)
Salford (H)
Cheltenham (H)
Morecambe (A)
Orient (H)
Macclesfield (A)

Surely we can get enough points to go up from that lot?
8 wins, 9 to be sure. Throw in some Luke Williams 1/3 wins and we'll be fine
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« Reply #11 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:18:12 »

There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points.
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Peter Venkman


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« Reply #12 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:19:03 »

We should not even slightly fear any of those, but every team can beat ever team on their day, all it takes is 1 defensive blunder or fluke goal (Northampton for example).

I think we should win 11 of those but they are all very winnable if we pull together and get a goalscorer in, whether thans Doyle/Yates/Muskwe it matters not, but yesterday showed we badly miss a proper goalscorer.
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« Reply #13 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:19:15 »

There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points.
Great minds Wink
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What a waste! What a waste!
Rock n Roll don't mind.
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« Reply #14 on: Wednesday, January 29, 2020, 10:19:59 »

There's 11 wins, 3 draws in that lot for me. Couldn't ask for a better run in. 92 points.

I reckon 35 from that lot
 Pint

*touches wood
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