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Author Topic: Upcoming Pivitol Fixtures.  (Read 1689 times)
theakston2k


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« Reply #15 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 11:57:24 »

There are no pivotal fixtures, every game has 3 points up for grabs.

People keep banging on about fellow contenders and not beating any promotion rivals but it doesn’t matter. We’ve got 36 points (likely to be 40+ at the halfway point) without beating anyone in the top 11 but it doesn’t matter as you get the same points regardless of who you beat. If we do the same second half of the season then we go up automatically.
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Ardiles


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« Reply #16 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 11:59:32 »

Yes & no.  A win vs a fellow promotion contender has the added benefit that it deprives them of points at the same time as adding to our tally.  So the overall tally that we will need ourselves to get over the line will be lower.
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theakston2k


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« Reply #17 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 12:05:43 »

Yes & no.  A win vs a fellow promotion contender has the added benefit that it deprives them of points at the same time as adding to our tally.  So the overall tally that we will need ourselves to get over the line will be lower.
But theoretically if we do the same as we have done 1st half of the season without beating any of them then we’d still go up no?
Based on our points per game to do date we are heading for around the 87 point mark.
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Ardiles


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« Reply #18 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 12:26:19 »

Yes, absolutely.
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NotHarryAgombar


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« Reply #19 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 12:28:40 »

I agree with this. Our points total is critical, not so much who we beat. There is a tendency throughout football at the moment to overreact to individual results. Take us this season - before the Stevenage game we were worried about dropping out of the play offs, 5 games (all won) later we are top of the table. I know it sounds like the clichéd “take each game as it comes” but we need to take a season long view, and our current points per game ratio would be enough for automatic promotion after 46 games. With 27 games left we will win some, draw some and lose a few undoubtedly between now and May.

Looking back to kirky69’s post - 19 points from 11 games in December and January would five us 55 from 30 games. With that total, 10 wins (or equivalent - say 9 wins and 3 draws) from the last 16 would give us 85 points. That would be enough to secure automatic promotion from league 2 in most years, and certainly in a tight league such as this season, where a group of teams are all taking points off each other.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #20 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 12:43:11 »

I agree with this. Our points total is critical, not so much who we beat. There is a tendency throughout football at the moment to overreact to individual results. Take us this season - before the Stevenage game we were worried about dropping out of the play offs, 5 games (all won) later we are top of the table. I know it sounds like the clichéd “take each game as it comes” but we need to take a season long view, and our current points per game ratio would be enough for automatic promotion after 46 games. With 27 games left we will win some, draw some and lose a few undoubtedly between now and May.

Looking back to kirky69’s post - 19 points from 11 games in December and January would five us 55 from 30 games. With that total, 10 wins (or equivalent - say 9 wins and 3 draws) from the last 16 would give us 85 points. That would be enough to secure automatic promotion from league 2 in most years, and certainly in a tight league such as this season, where a group of teams are all taking points off each other.

Some games are more important tha others, and not just as Ardiles says the 6 pointer effect.  It can be as simple as buying the manager a bit longer, when halting a bad run, or as in the case of Stevenage as you mention, getting a key win with a last minute, to lift players morale and get a run going.

Often you won't necessarily realise the importance until later, so for example after 18 games under Flitcroft we were a point worse off than this year... the 19th mid week at Grimsby, not a happy hunting ground, and 2-1 up at half time evaporated in the second half.... Grimsby won 2 more games in the next 20 odd before doubling us in April at the CG, and just about staying up.

That game perhaps showed a squad just lacking that bit extra to be an auto contender....
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Panda Paws
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« Reply #21 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 12:55:54 »

Stay as close to two points per game as possible. Doesn't who we beat, or how.
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Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #22 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:37:17 »

Stay as close to two points per game as possible. Doesn't who we beat, or how.

You can't get 2 points from a game, it's either 0, 1 or 3
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Thingie


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« Reply #23 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:39:39 »

As you know you tinker, he's talking average points Reg, average points
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Red Frog
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« Reply #24 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:46:12 »

You can't get 2 points from a game, it's either 0, 1 or 3

Who's not getting the point here?
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Tout ce que je sais de plus sûr à propos de la moralité et des obligations des hommes, c'est au football que je le dois. - Albert Camus
Reg Smeeton
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« Reply #25 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:48:28 »

As you know you tinker, he's talking average points Reg, average points

Still meaningless.

One thing we do know is that usually it proves more difficult to get points as the the 2nd half of the season unfolds, and particularly so as the last 10 or so games appear.

In that sense, a re-boot in Jan when I think inevitably Doyle goes back and perhaps Yates, could mean essentially starting over again, which may prove helpful.
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Tails


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« Reply #26 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:50:14 »

One thing to also consider in this period is that the managerial merry go round will continue to turn frequently, and if we continue our good run clubs will start looking at Wellens.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey


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« Reply #27 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:51:02 »

That’s one thing that doesn’t worry me.
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« Reply #28 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:51:55 »

That’s one thing that doesn’t worry me.

Why not?

I hope you're right but it wouldn't surprise me at all.
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The Artist Formerly Known as Audrey


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« Reply #29 on: Wednesday, November 27, 2019, 13:55:17 »

He’s already turned Donny down - a club close to his heart - citing loyalty.

This fella is no Flitcroft. He’ll be able to test himself in L1 with us. Nothing like getting a promotion on your CV!
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