Thetownend.com

Without getting to anal over stats (leave that to others) December & January fixtures look on paper to be perhaps the defining period of our season.

December

7) A v Grimsby. Currently lying 19th W5 D4 L7 F20 A22 P19
14) H v Oldham. Currently lying 20th W4 D7 L7 F19 A26 P19
21) A v FGR. Currently lying 2nd W10 D4 L4 F24 A13 P34
26) H v Cambridge. Currently lying 13th W6 D6 L7 F23 A19 P24
29) A v Port Vale. Currently lying 9th W7 D7 L5 F25 A25 P28

Is this the crunch month?

January

1) A v Plymouth currently lying 8th W8 D5 L5 P29
4) H v Bradford currently lying 7th W9 D3 L5 P30
11) H v Crewe currently lying 3rd W10 D3 L5 F32 A22 P33
18) A v Newport currently lying 11th W7 D6 L4 F17 A14
25) H v Port Vale currently lying 9th W7 D7 L5 F25 A25 P28
28 A v Colchester currently lying 10th W7 D6 L5 F23 A17 P27

Naturally the loan player situation is going to be crucial, however, Wellens has stated that he has plans in place. Worth noting that chalky? (Was he on the radio yesterday?) saying that in the event of any players being recalled if we are still where we currently sit it will be easier to attract a replacement who’ll want to be part of a promotion ‘winning’ team rather than one scrapping for survival.

E&OE

 Pivotal..... it's pivotal.

Chalkie, it’s Chalkie

 The simple answer is no December isn't the crunch month, it does look on paper like we could pick up some points, and will need to do that as January looks horrible, and given the uncertainty over the squad, if we get through that relatively unscathed then reasons to be cheerful.

 The uncertainty makes it relatively pointless to think too much about.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S4PDt8F-5cU&t=42s

I was on the Pivitol for my inflamed bowel.

That’s a load of shit and you know it.

 :clap:  :clap:  :clap:

Wellens sad something similar himself, along the lines of "if we're still top clubs will be phoning me to get their players here"

Realistically would hope for 11 points in December ( 3 wins, 2 draws FGR and Port Vale) and 8 in January ( 2 wins Port Vale and Newport, 2 draws Bradford and Crewe and 2 losses  Plymouth and Col U) Overall 19 points from those 11 fixtures would be a very decent return and likely keep us at least top 3.

All our fixtures are going to be pivotal, I expect, towards the end of the season.  I'm already eyeing the away allocation at Morecambe (approx 1,400) a little nervously.  Macclesfield is bigger at just under 2,000.

We haven't done well against the top teams... but as long as we can keep our nerve against the lesser teams in the league we will be up there. January does look a bit daunting though, especially as we could be Doyle and Grant-less

I see ‘that’ rumours site has already landed on Danny Hylton if we lose Doyle.

He hasn’t played a competitive match since Mar 23rd and is subsequently recovering from a knee operation.

On the money, again!

Been keeping tabs on the Bradford forum and they are genuinely going into meltdown.

It's not just the Doyle saga, it's the manager, the owner and the style of football they play. Honestly reminds me of us the last two years.

They are elevated above their station at the moment and I expect that they will do what we did and keep up with the play off pack and fall away at the end of the season. It's a trend a few clubs that have come down have followed.

Regarding Doyle I personally think Bradford will take him back to spite us, but then he will not score for them and we will be the ones laughing. They don't play anything like us and whilst yes we lost at their place without Doyle, I trust Wellens will bring in a striker that can tap in the countless chances we create. Doyle won't score in their system and he will soon miss his name being sung from the stands as the leading goal scorer in the league.

If you are a striker that has scored a decent amount in the past and you are currently not scoring you would be looking at the Swindon team with envy as we create enough chances that we can squander a load and still score.

Bringing Doyle back would represent a near £250,000 hit for their owner. That could be better spent, I reckon.

Conversation.

Owner: Do you want Doyle back?

Bowyer: Yes, please

Owner: Can you get him scoring with the frequency he has at Swindon?

Bowyer: I don’t know

Owner: Fuck off, then.

There are no pivotal fixtures, every game has 3 points up for grabs.

People keep banging on about fellow contenders and not beating any promotion rivals but it doesn’t matter. We’ve got 36 points (likely to be 40+ at the halfway point) without beating anyone in the top 11 but it doesn’t matter as you get the same points regardless of who you beat. If we do the same second half of the season then we go up automatically.

Yes & no.  A win vs a fellow promotion contender has the added benefit that it deprives them of points at the same time as adding to our tally.  So the overall tally that we will need ourselves to get over the line will be lower.

But theoretically if we do the same as we have done 1st half of the season without beating any of them then we’d still go up no?
Based on our points per game to do date we are heading for around the 87 point mark.

Yes, absolutely.

I agree with this. Our points total is critical, not so much who we beat. There is a tendency throughout football at the moment to overreact to individual results. Take us this season - before the Stevenage game we were worried about dropping out of the play offs, 5 games (all won) later we are top of the table. I know it sounds like the clichéd “take each game as it comes” but we need to take a season long view, and our current points per game ratio would be enough for automatic promotion after 46 games. With 27 games left we will win some, draw some and lose a few undoubtedly between now and May.

Looking back to kirky69’s post - 19 points from 11 games in December and January would five us 55 from 30 games. With that total, 10 wins (or equivalent - say 9 wins and 3 draws) from the last 16 would give us 85 points. That would be enough to secure automatic promotion from league 2 in most years, and certainly in a tight league such as this season, where a group of teams are all taking points off each other.

Some games are more important tha others, and not just as Ardiles says the 6 pointer effect.  It can be as simple as buying the manager a bit longer, when halting a bad run, or as in the case of Stevenage as you mention, getting a key win with a last minute, to lift players morale and get a run going.

Often you won't necessarily realise the importance until later, so for example after 18 games under Flitcroft we were a point worse off than this year... the 19th mid week at Grimsby, not a happy hunting ground, and 2-1 up at half time evaporated in the second half.... Grimsby won 2 more games in the next 20 odd before doubling us in April at the CG, and just about staying up.

That game perhaps showed a squad just lacking that bit extra to be an auto contender....

Stay as close to two points per game as possible. Doesn't who we beat, or how.

You can't get 2 points from a game, it's either 0, 1 or 3

As you know you tinker, he's talking average points Reg, average points

Who's not getting the point here?

Still meaningless.

One thing we do know is that usually it proves more difficult to get points as the the 2nd half of the season unfolds, and particularly so as the last 10 or so games appear.

In that sense, a re-boot in Jan when I think inevitably Doyle goes back and perhaps Yates, could mean essentially starting over again, which may prove helpful.

One thing to also consider in this period is that the managerial merry go round will continue to turn frequently, and if we continue our good run clubs will start looking at Wellens.

That’s one thing that doesn’t worry me.

Why not?

I hope you're right but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

He’s already turned Donny down - a club close to his heart - citing loyalty.

This fella is no Flitcroft. He’ll be able to test himself in L1 with us. Nothing like getting a promotion on your CV!

Well yes of course... can't possibly be any other conclusion to that scenario can there?

There's nothing inevitable about this at all.  We might buy him.  Or Bradford may extend the loan.  Plenty of variables at play that could lead to either of these outcomes.

There’s absolutely no way they will extend the loan. They’ll either recall him or expect us to buy him - £100,000.

If they recall him it’ll cost their owner an approx £130,000 cash injection to cover the cost plus losing out on whatever fee they can get.

If Doyle makes it clear he doesn’t want to return - although he can’t outright refuse - would they be willing to fork out that much just to attempt to derail us? Doubtful.

When I look at the variables, I keep returning to the same conclusion, fair enough if you see something else.

Because there are so many variables (as well as unknowns)...there is no way anyone can say there is an 'inevitable' conclusion...

Well, tbf, there are only 2 variables. He stays. He goes.

I think some on here are factoring in  :alien: abduction,

Taking holy orders   :pope:

 Short term incarceration at HMP :busted:
 
or  :storm: strike
 

Those aren't variables.  They're outcomes.

Variables are (for example):

• Bradford City's finances (or rather those of their owner);
• whether they think that they could get Doyle playing effectively in their team again;
• whether Bradford think that Doyle would want to come back;
• how much Doyle might be worth in the summer if his performances drop after being recalled;
• whether, in Bradford's view, STFC would make a better shop window for their player during the remainder of the season;
• how much his wages are, how much of those are covered by STFC, and whether a recall would then push Bradford's finances over any FFP threshold
• Bradford's form over the Christmas period;
• how likely it might be that allowing Doyle to stay with us would mean Bradford themselves miss out on either an auto promotion or a play off spot; and
• all sorts of other stuff that none of us can have any idea about because we're not involved in any way with the discussions that will be going on, both in Swindon and in Bradford.

Nothing inevitable about any of this.  We'll have to wait & see.

The answer to 2 of those variables is £0. He’s OOC in June so a free agent. He’s only worth anything in January if we, and only we, want to buy him.

Extend the loan? he's on loan for the season

Which I'm sure we want to do,  have heard figures banded about between 70 and 100k,  think that is an absolute bargain at that price if it is true. Promotion alone would more than cover that cost.

Out of interest why do you think that Power will stump up a fee and therefore a lengthy contract at high wages, for a player 32 before season's end ?

Because Power can see hes the striker we have been badly lacking for many years and he knows that for a modest £50k to £100k he could bag the man that has made the difference in our side, winning games with his goals.

Well worth the investment, Power is no mug and he can see the impact Doyle has made on the team since he arrived.

He’d be fine in L1 as well. So that’s next season sorted!

Tbh, if he was to fork out money it’d make sense to spend it on Yates. He’ll have a value in a couple of years time.

Because,  as I've already said,   his goals could well make the difference between us going up or staying down.
As a proven goalscorer he could comfortably take us up again next season,   all possibilities I know but the rewards would be several fold the measly sum being spoken of.  Power is no fool when it comes to money,  Doyle could well prove to be the best buy since Charlie Austen.
 

There’s also another rumour that if he plays many more games for them his contract auto renews with it having an option for a 3rd year. If that happens Bradford could be locked in for another year paying ridiculous wages that no interested party is able to match in the summer and it costs them another ~£250k next year.

Not that Doyle has control but if he has influence and listens to his agent he will stay with us and aim to finish top scorer in L2 and wait to become a free agent.  He won't score more goals by returning to Bradford.

Not sure that if we signed him from Bradford we could sign him for any more than 5 mnths as Doyle could probably get a longer (important at 32) and better paid contract elsewhere.

I reckon there's a decent prospect he'll see out his loan here.  At least Bradford can prevent him playing against them - could be doubly valuable if we were to encounter them in the Play Offs.

Wellens saying he was going to be ready either way did however make me wonder whether he knew a little more and was preparing us for the worst (the return of Adebayo or Norris?  ;) )

Interesting comment. If we go up we’ll need players if Diykes, Yates and Grants ability to compete next season.

Couldn’t find a specific thread so as the FGR game is one of many pivotal games, have all the away tickets been sold?

Yep

Damn, blast and botherations.