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Thetownend.com > Forum > 25% > The Reg Smeeton Match Day Action/Reaction Forum > Topic: The Run In
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DiV
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Joseph McLaughlin




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« on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:34:08 »
Current Table
1. Bournemouth 33 58
2. Sheffield United 32 57
-----------------------------
3. Yeovil 32 57
4. Doncaster 31 57
5. Tranmere 32 56
6. Swindon 31 55
-----------------------------
7. Brentford 31 54
8. Coventry 33 50
9. Walsall 33 48


Right, I've taken the number of points from the last 10 league one seasons to work out the highest, average and lowest points total for 1st, 2nd and 6th place. I have also worked out the 'guarantee' number, the highest number of points a team has finished 2nd, 3rd and 7th with +1

1st: Highest 101, Lowest 82, Average 94, Guarantee 94.
2nd: Highest 93, Lowest 79, Average 86, Guarantee 91. (the guarantee would only be 88 if it wasnt for Sheffield United finishing 3rd last season with a staggering 90 points!)
6th: Highest 81, Lowest 71, Average 75, Guarantee 81

For the sake of the rest - I've used the guarantee number rather than anything else, as it would take something special for someone to beat the guarantee number but not finish in the expected place.

What with the top 8 or so being very close together I dont think it will come as a surprise to anyone that it looks likely to be a very low scoring season this year. Currently no team is even averaging 2 points per game and all need well above that to hit the guarantee number, I might be better off changing this for the average number at some point.

For example, if table topping Bournemouth kept their average PPG the same between now and the end of the season they'd only finish on 81 points. Which would see you finish 6th in 2003 but 2nd in 2006. I think this years table will end up looking more like the 2006 table. Southend 82, Colchester 79, Brentford 76, Huddersfield 73, Barnsley 72, Swansea 71 - very low scoring.

Bournemouth would need to win all their remaining games to get to a previously unbeaten 1st place points total...

Enjoy, or hate - I couldnt give a fuck either way  Smiley






Bournemouth
Played: 33
Points: 58
Average PPG: 1.76
Points needed to finish 1st: 36 (2.77)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 33 (2.54)
Points needed to finish >6th+:23 (1.77)
Remaining Fixtures
Sheffield United (h)
Coventry (h)
Leyton Orient (a)
Doncaster (h)
Stevenage (a)
Oldham (a)
Bury (h)
Colchester (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Notts County (h)
Shrewsbury (a)
Carlisle (h)
Tranmere (a)


Sheffield United
Played: 32
Points: 57
Average PPG: 1.78
Points needed to finish 1st: 37 (2.64)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 34 (2.43)
Points needed to finish >6th+:24 (1.71)
Remaining Fixtures
Bournemouth (a)
Leyton Orient (h)
Oldham (a)
Franchise (h)
Crewe (a)
Stevenage (a)
Brentford (h)
Tranmere (a)
Carlisle (h)
Walsall (a)
Swindon (h)
Crawley (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Preston (h)


Yeovil Town
Played: 32
Points: 57
Average PPG: 1.78
Points needed to finish 1st: 37 (2.64)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 34 (2.43)
Points needed to finish >6th+:24 (1.71)
Remaining Fixtures
Doncaster (a)
Colchester (a)
Tranmere (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Crawley (h)
Swindon (h)
Carlisle (a)
Walsall (h)
Notts County (a)
Shrewsbury (h)
Stevenage (a)
Crewe (h)
Bury (a)


Doncaster Rovers
Played: 31
Points: 57
Average PPG: 1.84
Points needed to finish 1st: 37 (2.47)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 34 (2.27)
Points needed to finish >6th+:24 (1.60)
Remaining Fixtures
Crawley (a)
Yeovil (h)
Shrewsbury (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Franchise (a)
Bournemouth (a)
Carlisle (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Coventry (a)
Swindon (h)
Tranmere (h)
Crewe (a)
Notts County (a)
Brentford (a)


Tranmere Rovers
Played: 32
Points: 56
Average PPG: 1.75
Points needed to finish 1st: 38 (2.71)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 35 (2.50)
Points needed to finish >6th+:25 (1.79)
Remaining Fixtures
Swindon (h)
Colchester (a)
Notts County (h)
Yeovil (a)
Oldham (h)
Walsall (a)
Franchise (a)
Stevenage (h)
Sheffield United (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (a)
Hartlepool (h)
Preston (a)
Bournemouth (h)


Paolo Di Canio's some shit cunts Swindon Town
Played: 31
Points: 55
Average PPG: 1.77
Points needed to finish 1st: 39 (2.60)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 36 (2.40)
Points needed to finish >6th+:26 (1.73)
Remaining Fixtures
Tranmere (a)
Preston (h)
Bury (h)
Coventry (a)
Walsall (h)
Brentford (a)
Yeovil (a)
Notts County (h)
Oldham (h)
Doncaster (a)
Crewe (h)
Franchise (a)
Sheffield United (a)
Stevenage (h)
Scunthorpe (a)


Brentford
Played: 31
Points: 54
Average PPG: 1.74
Points needed to finish 1st: 40 (2.67)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 37 (2.47)
Points needed to finish >6th+:27 (1.80)
Remaining Fixtures
Walsall (h)
Crawley (a)
Scunthorpe (h)
Stevenage (a)
Carlisle (a)
Swindon (h)
Preston (h)
Sheffield United (a)
Notts County (h)
Franchise (a)
Coventry (a)
Crewe (a)
Portsmouth (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Doncaster (h)


Coventry City
Played: 33
Points: 50
Average PPG: 1.52
Points needed to finish 1st: 44 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 41 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:31 (2.38)
Remaining Fixtures
Crewe (h)
Bournemouth (a)
Swindon (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Colchester (h)
Hartlepool (h)
Portsmouth (a)
Doncaster (h)
Walsall (a)
Brentford (h)
Crawley (a)
Leyton Orient (h)
Notts County (a)


Walsall
Played: 33
Points: 48
Average PPG: 1.45
Points needed to finish 1st: 46 (-)
Points needed to finish 2nd: 43 (-)
Points needed to finish >6th+:33 (2.54)
Remaining Fixtures
Brentford (a)
Carlisle (a)
Shrewsbury (h)
Swindon (a)
Tranmere (h)
Crawley (h)
Hartlepool (a)
Yeovil (a)
Coventry (h)
Sheffield United (h)
Scunthorpe (a)
Bury (h)
Crewe (a)
« Last Edit: Monday, February 18, 2013, 19:54:54 by DV Canio » Logged
jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #1 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:41:52 »
Excellent. I've been waiting for this.

Paolo Di Canio's Swindon Town raised a smirk, nice one for doing this again DeeV.
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sonicyouth

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« Reply #2 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:43:53 »
[url width=500 height=281]http://i.imgur.com/ezSatuR.gif[/url]
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DiV
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Joseph McLaughlin




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« Reply #3 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:45:04 »
My pleasure, might even get to a game or two for the run in.

Although I did have this thought; if the play off final is ourselves against Danny bottler Wilson's Sheffield United - who would lose?

A lot of teams left to play each other, all in everyones our own hands in a way.
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sonicyouth

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« Reply #4 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:49:15 »
Quote from: DV Canio on Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:45:04
My pleasure, might even get to a game or two for the run in.

Although I did have this thought; if the play off final is ourselves against Danny bottler Wilson's Sheffield United - who would lose?

A lot of teams left to play each other, all in everyones our own hands in a way.
i think Wembley would collapse in on itself like a black hole.
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DiV
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Joseph McLaughlin




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« Reply #5 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:51:45 »
Quote from: MANNEN UTEN KNÆR on Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:49:15
i think Wembley would collapse in on itself like a black hole.

Oddly, that was my conclusion to...
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axs
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« Reply #6 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 14:01:58 »
Guarantee, it's guarantee.
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welshred

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« Reply #7 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 14:16:01 »
We've got 55 points, not 54.
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Batch
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« Reply #8 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 14:17:55 »
DV is back!
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donkey
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He headed a football.




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« Reply #9 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 16:10:14 »
Quote from: jayohaitchenn on Sunday, February 17, 2013, 13:41:52
Excellent. I've been waiting for this.

Paolo Di Canio's Swindon Town raised a smirk, nice one for doing this again DeeV.

It did indeed. Yes
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Quote from: chalkies_shorts on Wednesday, February 18, 2015, 07:15:34
donkey tells the truth

I headed the ball.

eeeeeeeeeeeeeee-aaaaaaaawwwwwww
chalkies_shorts

« Reply #10 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 17:01:31 »
This Saturday's games are interesting as some of the top teams play each other.
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kerry red

« Reply #11 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 17:17:55 »
Bornmuff and Blades appear to have a shittier run in than most

Yeovil's run-in seems fairly benign, as does Brentford's

Double-edged sword when the top teams play each other at the fag-end of a season

Honestly cant see Tranmere or Donny lasting the pace.

Swindon, Bornmuff and Blades - perm any 2 from 3 for 1st and 2nd place.

Tranmere to fail to make play-offs, Blades v Yeovil play-off final
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TheMajorSTFC

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« Reply #12 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 17:37:27 »
I'd back us in the bigger games we have to play, but I worry about us against sides like Bury, Oldham, Scunthorpe! I still think we'll make the top 2!
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#VivaKenBarlow!
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« Reply #13 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 18:00:59 »
I think we've probably got the toughest run in of the lot. That might actually help us though.
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Nomoreheroes
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« Reply #14 on: Sunday, February 17, 2013, 20:16:08 »
We have a lot of difficult away games!

Don't like the fact that we struggle to score that first goal.

The natural pessimist in me can see us ending up 7th. The realist says play offs, but no further.
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You're my incurable malady. I miss the pleasure of your company.
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