Ralphy
 Offline
Posts: 14189
|
 |
« on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 11:44:05 » |
|
Looking at the remaining fixtures, I reckon we'll get another 33 points which would give us 89 points and surely mean automatic. Interested to see others thoughts on what we're pick up from the remaining games.
Mine as follows...
Tue 23 19:45 H Stockport (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Leyton Orient (win)
March
Sat 6 13:00 H Bristol Rovers (win)
Tue 9 19:45 A Franchise (draw)
Sat 13 15:00 A Brighton (draw)
Tue 16 19:45 A Southampton (lose)
Sat 20 15:00 H Norwich City (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Hartlepool (draw)
April
Sat 3 15:00 A Leeds United (draw)
Mon 5 15:00 H Tranmere (win)
Sat 10 15:00 A Colchester (draw)
Tue 13 19:45 H Exeter City (win)
Sat 17 15:00 H Walsall (win)
Sat 24 15:00 A Wycombe (win)
May
Sat 1 15:00 H Brentford (win)
Sat 8 15:00 A Millwall (draw)
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 11:46:15 by Ralphy »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Iffy's Onion Bhaji
petulant
Offline
Posts: 15863
|
|
« Reply #1 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 11:48:20 » |
|
March is going to be the deciding month from my point of view. If we can come out of that looking good then we should make the play-offs. If we fare as well as we have since the turn of the year next month then who knows maybe auto? It could all go wrong though as we have some really tough games. Here's mine:
Tue 23 19:45 H Stockport (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Leyton Orient (Draw)
March
Sat 6 13:00 H Bristol Rovers (win)
Tue 9 19:45 A Franchise (Win)
Sat 13 15:00 A Brighton (Draw)
Tue 16 19:45 A Southampton (Lose)
Sat 20 15:00 H Norwich City (Draw)
Sat 27 15:00 A Hartlepool (Draw)
April
Sat 3 15:00 A Leeds United (Lose)
Mon 5 15:00 H Tranmere (win)
Sat 10 15:00 A Colchester (Lose)
Tue 13 19:45 H Exeter City (Win)
Sat 17 15:00 H Walsall (Win)
Sat 24 15:00 A Wycombe (Win)
May
Sat 1 15:00 H Brentford (win)
Sat 8 15:00 A Millwall (lose)
That's 28 points. So ending with 84. Play-offs.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Peter Venkman
We don't need no stinking badges.
Offline
Posts: 59638
Things can only get better
|
|
« Reply #2 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 12:32:46 » |
|
Tue 23 19:45 H Stockport (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Leyton Orient (win)
March
Sat 6 13:00 H Bristol Rovers (win)
Tue 9 19:45 A Franchise (win)
Sat 13 15:00 A Brighton (win)
Tue 16 19:45 A Southampton (draw)
Sat 20 15:00 H Norwich City (draw)
Sat 27 15:00 A Hartlepool (win)
April
Sat 3 15:00 A Leeds United (lose)
Mon 5 15:00 H Tranmere (win)
Sat 10 15:00 A Colchester (lose)
Tue 13 19:45 H Exeter City (win)
Sat 17 15:00 H Walsall (win)
Sat 24 15:00 A Wycombe (win)
May
Sat 1 15:00 H Brentford (win)
Sat 8 15:00 A Millwall (lose)
38 point, well within reach and 94 point, possible automatic promotion.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
Only a fool does not know when to hold his tongue.
|
|
|
Phil_S
Offline
Posts: 1534
Who changed my Avatar ?!
|
|
« Reply #3 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 12:39:00 » |
|
Tue 23 19:45 H Stockport (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Leyton Orient (draw)
March
Sat 6 13:00 H Bristol Rovers (win)
Tue 9 19:45 A Franchise (win)
Sat 13 15:00 A Brighton (win)
Tue 16 19:45 A Southampton (draw)
Sat 20 15:00 H Norwich City (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Hartlepool (draw)
April
Sat 3 15:00 A Leeds United (win)
Mon 5 15:00 H Tranmere (win)
Sat 10 15:00 A Colchester (draw)
Tue 13 19:45 H Exeter City (win)
Sat 17 15:00 H Walsall (win)
Sat 24 15:00 A Wycombe (win)
May
Sat 1 15:00 H Brentford (win)
Sat 8 15:00 A Millwall (draw)
I make it 38 points too
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
From the Dark Side
|
|
|
swindonbob
Offline
Posts: 1042
|
|
« Reply #4 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 12:54:39 » |
|
Tue 23 19:45 H Stockport (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Leyton Orient (draw)
March
Sat 6 13:00 H Bristol Rovers (win)
Tue 9 19:45 A Franchise (win)
Sat 13 15:00 A Brighton (win)
Tue 16 19:45 A Southampton (draw)
Sat 20 15:00 H Norwich City (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Hartlepool (draw)
April
Sat 3 15:00 A Leeds United (win)
Mon 5 15:00 H Tranmere (win)
Sat 10 15:00 A Colchester (draw)
Tue 13 19:45 H Exeter City (win)
Sat 17 15:00 H Walsall (win)
Sat 24 15:00 A Wycombe (win)
May
Sat 1 15:00 H Brentford (win)
Sat 8 15:00 A Millwall (draw)
I make it 38 points too
So we will win our next 4 away games?! When was the last time that happened? I'm pessimistic, and think we will drop home points against all of these "dead cert" wins |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
aptain Cabinet, trapped in a cabinet, can he get out? will he get out? course he can.
|
|
|
leefer
Offline
Posts: 12851
|
|
« Reply #5 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 13:08:42 » |
|
H Stockport..Win
A Orient........Draw
H..Rovers......Win
A Franchise.....Lose
A Brighton.....Draw
A Saints........Draw
H Norwich......Win
A H/Pool........Win
A Leeds.........Lose
H Tranmere....Win
A Colchester..Lose
H Exeter........Win
H Walsall.......Draw
A Wycombe....Draw
H Brentford.....Win
A Millwall........Draw.
27 for me so would fall short on auto,of course alot will depend on other teams performances anyway
I have felt all year we could get an automatic place so i hope my tally is well short.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
jonny72
Offline
Posts: 5554
|
|
« Reply #6 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 13:26:51 » |
|
I'm glass half empty when it comes to the run in, I reckon we need 19 more points for the playoffs so the following will do the trick....
H Stockport..Win
A Orient........Draw
H Rovers......Draw
A Franchise.....Lose
A Brighton.....Draw
A Saints........Lose
H Norwich......Draw
A H/Pool........Win
A Leeds.........Lose
H Tranmere....Win
A Colchester..Lose
H Exeter........Draw
H Walsall.......Draw
A Wycombe....Win
H Brentford.....Draw
A Millwall........Lose
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Phil_S
Offline
Posts: 1534
Who changed my Avatar ?!
|
|
« Reply #7 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 13:56:04 » |
|
So we will win our next 4 away games?! When was the last time that happened?
I'm pessimistic, and think we will drop home points against all of these "dead cert" wins
I don't think we WILL win the next 4 away. Two wins & two draws is my prediction |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
From the Dark Side
|
|
|
dogs
Offline
Posts: 802
|
|
« Reply #8 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:02:55 » |
|
Tue 23 19:45 H Stockport (win)
Sat 27 15:00 A Leyton Orient (draw)
March
Sat 6 13:00 H Bristol Rovers (draw)
Tue 9 19:45 A Franchise (lose)
Sat 13 15:00 A Brighton (draw)
Tue 16 19:45 A Southampton (lose)
Sat 20 15:00 H Norwich City (draw)
Sat 27 15:00 A Hartlepool (draw)
April
Sat 3 15:00 A Leeds United (lose)
Mon 5 15:00 H Tranmere (win)
Sat 10 15:00 A Colchester (draw)
Tue 13 19:45 H Exeter City (win)
Sat 17 15:00 H Walsall (lose)
Sat 24 15:00 A Wycombe (win)
May
Sat 1 15:00 H Brentford (draw)
Sat 8 15:00 A Millwall (draw)
20 points from that
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Nemo
Shit Bacon
 Online
Posts: 21540
|
|
« Reply #9 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:11:56 » |
|
Do you genuinely think we'll go 8 games without a win from Stockport to Tranmere?
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Ralphy
Offline
Posts: 14189
|
|
« Reply #10 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:12:14 » |
|
I think Leeds and Colchester away will decide our fate.
Southampton away is a tough one too.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
DiV
Has also heard this
Offline
Posts: 32433
Joseph McLaughlin
|
|
« Reply #11 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:37:47 » |
|
time to break out some Dave nerd stats.
the points in question are taken from the last 10 league one seasons. Guarentee means that no team has finished lower than, that position with that number of points. Ie, another 36 points would give us 88 points, no one has got 88 points and finished lower than second. Potentially is the average over the last 10 years, ie 19 more points gives us 75 - the average for 6th place.
Swindon Town
Played: 30
Points: 56
Points Per Game: 1.87
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 36 (2.25)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 32 (2.00)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 29 (1.81)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 25 (1.56)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 19 (1.19)
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Ralphy
Offline
Posts: 14189
|
|
« Reply #12 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:43:26 » |
|
Win our game in hand, beat Norwich at home and get something at Leeds and Colchester and it's game on.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
reeves4england
Offline
Posts: 16005
We'll never die!
|
|
« Reply #13 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:47:19 » |
|
time to break out some Dave nerd stats.
the points in question are taken from the last 10 league one seasons. Guarentee means that no team has finished lower than, that position with that number of points. Ie, another 36 points would give us 88 points, no one has got 88 points and finished lower than second. Potentially is the average over the last 10 years, ie 19 more points gives us 75 - the average for 6th place.
Swindon Town
Played: 30
Points: 56
Points Per Game: 1.87
Points Left Available: 48
Points Needed:
to guarentee the Championship: 36 (2.25)
to guarentee Automatic Promotion: 32 (2.00)
to potentially get Automatic Promotion: 29 (1.81)
to guarentee a Play Off Place: 25 (1.56)
to potentially get a Play Off Place: 19 (1.19)
I think it's well established that this is one of the highest points-scoring seasons for a while at the top of the league, although that may have changed since Leeds hit their run of poor form. I can't be bothered to work it out but I think people predicting 39 points are far too optimistic, and those only predicting 19 or 20 are either being incredibly cautious or have been attending classes at the Smeeton school of optimism (no offence Reg!) |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Ralphy
Offline
Posts: 14189
|
|
« Reply #14 on: Sunday, February 21, 2010, 14:49:42 » |
|
30 points has to be the target if we're serious about automatic.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
