1989Monkey
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« Reply #45 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 09:16:27 » |
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Are those odds to win in 90minutes though? Your screwwed if its a draw!
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Bob's Orange
Has brain escape barriers
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« Reply #46 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 09:27:54 » |
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It will be.
You'll be praying it isn't a draw!
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we've been to Aberdeen, we hate the Hibs, they make us spew up, so make some noise,
the gorgie boys, for Hearts in Europe.
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Samdy Gray
Dirty sneaky traitor weasel
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« Reply #47 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 09:33:21 » |
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No, I assume he layed a Spain win, so any other result e.g. lose or draw should result in a payout.
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Simon Pieman
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« Reply #48 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 09:51:01 » |
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John, you don't get the payout on a lay, you only get what you stake.
If Spain don't win you're going to lose £10 overall net. If they do you'll make £17 profit.
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jayohaitchenn
Wielder of the BANHAMMER
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« Reply #49 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 09:59:32 » |
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No, I assume he layed a Spain win, so any other result e.g. lose or draw should result in a payout.
Correct. Simon Pieman, can you explain further please? Use sums! |
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Simon Pieman
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« Reply #50 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:09:38 » |
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When you lay a bet you're offering the bet to someone (acting as the bookies). So you're effectively saying if you want to bet £15 I will give you odds of 2.7.
Just like the bookies, if the person you offered the bet to loses their bet i.e. Spain fail to win you will make the £15 that they bet. However, if Spain did win then you'd have to pay out £25.50 (as you don't physically have the £15 they bet, Betfair does until the bet is settled).
So at Betfair you could make £15 or lose £25.50 (net profit/loss)
At Stan James you could make £42.50 or lose £25 (net profit/loss)
If Spain win you will make £42.50 profit at Stan James but lose £25.50 on Betfair = £17
If Spain fail to win you will make £15 profit at Betfair but lose £25 at Stan James = -£10
I suggest if the odds are still the same on betfair for the lay, lay off another £10. You'll make no profit/loss (except perhaps a few pence loss in commission) but as you point out you'll get the free bet. Do the same thing with the free bet and you will make guaranteed profit. This is because you are not going to be staking your own money at the bookies.
I'm assuming this bet is a normal one using your own money and not a free bet at the moment.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #51 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:27:54 » |
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So I should be staking the same amount on both sides of the bet then? I thought i had understood this, but maybe not. My head hurts.
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Samdy Gray
Dirty sneaky traitor weasel
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« Reply #52 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:30:00 » |
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Google for a matched betting calculator.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #53 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:36:19 » |
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I have: Back Stake £25 Back Odds 2.70 Lay Odds 2.70 Lay commission 5% Lay Stake £16.04 Liability £27.26 Outcome Summary: Back Lay Bookmaker Profit £42.50 £0 Exchange Profit £-27.26 £15.54 Overall Profit £15.24 £15.24 60.94% Retained I think I get it now. My odds calculator is assuming my free bet was free. It wasn't, It was £25 with £25 matched. EDIT> I have clicked the wrong button on my odds calculator!! I should have layed £25.43, liability of £43.30 with a guaranteed loss of about 0.80p Live and learn - I fucking hope Spain win now  |
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« Last Edit: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:39:13 by jayohaitchenn »
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #54 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:42:23 » |
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The odds have dropped to 2.58 for the lay on betfair. Should I lay more money or not?
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Simon Pieman
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« Reply #55 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 10:54:33 » |
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Lay £10.50
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #56 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 11:01:50 » |
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Cheers Si.
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BANGKOK RED
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« Reply #57 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 13:09:12 » |
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #58 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 13:28:37 » |
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Nice one BK, I'll have a read of that tonight.
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jayohaitchenn
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« Reply #59 on: Wednesday, July 7, 2010, 20:51:25 » |
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Update.
Lost £40 @ Betfair
Won £65 @ Stan James
Tomorrow I get £25 free bet from Stan James, and Betfair refund my first losing bet (£15 but would have been more if I had layed correctly in the first place).
£65 up so far but I need to re-bet the Stan James money and don't get the stake returned.
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